The Big 12 was one of the toughest conferences to predict last season. The conference had a significant amount of turnover at quarterback, and most preseason predictions placed the projected champion outside of the top 10.
Fast forward to 2014, and the outlook has changed for the Big 12. Oklahoma went 11-2 in a rebuilding year and is poised to make a run into college football’s playoff. Baylor is the defending conference champion, and the Bears return quarterback Bryce Petty, along with likely All-Big 12 performers in receiver Antwan Goodley and running back Shock Linwood.
Kansas State, Texas and Oklahoma State round out the top five of Athlon’s early Big 12 predictions for 2014. The Wildcats finished the year by winning six out of their last seven games, while the Longhorns are under the direction of a new coach in Charlie Strong. The Cowboys lose 28 seniors, but Mike Gundy has established a solid foundation in Stillwater.
Texas Tech is a team on the rise under the direction of second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury, while the TCU should be improved with most of its core returning for 2014
West Virginia, Iowa State and Kansas rank as the last three teams in the conference for next season.
Very Early Big 12 Football Predictions for 2014
Key Returnees: QB Trevor Knight, RB Keith Ford, WR Sterling Shepard, WR Durron Neal, LT Tyrus Thompson, OG Adam Shead, OG Nila Kasitati, RT Daryl Williams, DE Charles Tapper, DE Geneo Grissom, DT Chuka Ndulue, DT Jordan Wade, DT Jordan Phillips, LB Frank Shannon, LB Dominique Alexander, LB Eric Striker, CB Zack Sanchez, S Quentin Hayes, DB Julian Wilson, S Ahmad Thomas, K Michael Hunnicutt
Key Losses: RB Brennan Clay, WR Jalen Saunders, WR Lacoltan Bester, C Gabe Ikard, OG Bronson Irwin, LB Corey Nelson, CB Aaron Colvin, S Gabe Lynn
After winning 11 games in a rebuilding year, it’s easy to see why expectations are high in Norman for 2014. Oklahoma’s Sugar Bowl victory over Alabama only fueled the anticipating for next season, especially after quarterback Trevor Knight delivered his best performance of 2013. If Knight builds on his performance against the Crimson Tide, he should blossom into one of the Big 12’s top quarterbacks. The sophomore has a solid supporting cast, but receiver Jalen Saunders and center Gabe Ikard are big losses. With the departure of running back Brennan Clay, talented incoming freshman Joe Mixon and sophomore Keith Ford should carry the rushing attack. The defense ranked second in the Big 12 by holding opponents to just 22.1 points per game. Cornerback Aaron Colvin is a big loss, but the rest of the unit returns largely intact, and the defense will have more overall depth in 2014. Another factor working in Oklahoma’s favor next year is the schedule. The Sooners host Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma State.
Key Returnees: QB Bryce Petty, RB Shock Linwood, WR Antwan Goodley, WR Levi Norwood, WR Clay Fuller, WR Corey Coleman, LT Spencer Drango, RG Desmine Hilliard, RT Troy Baker, DE Shawn Oakman, DE Jamal Palmer, NT Beau Blackshear, DT Byron Bonds, DT Andrew Billings, LB Bryce Hager, LB Aiavion Edwards, S Terrell Burt, S Orion Stewart
Key Losses: RB Lache Seastrunk, RB Glasco Martin, WR Tevin Reese, TE Jordan Najvar, OG Cyril Richardson, C Stefan Huber, OT Kelvin Palmer, DE Terrance Lloyd, DE Chris McAllister, LB Eddie Lackey, CB K.J. Morton, CB Demetri Goodson, DB Sam Holl, S Ahmad Dixon
The defending Big 12 champions will be back in the mix for the conference title in 2014. There are some personnel losses to overcome, but most importantly, Art Briles is back on the sidelines in Waco, and quarterback Bryce Petty decided to return for his senior season. Running back Lache Seastrunk is a big loss, but Shock Linwood is a capable replacement. The biggest concern for the offense is the line, which loses guard Cyril Richardson, center Stefan Huber and tackle Kelvin Palmer. Scoring points hasn’t been a problem for Baylor, but the turnaround on defense was an underrated factor in 2013. Coordinator Phil Bennett will have some holes to fill, starting at defensive end where Terrance Lloyd and Chris McAllister will depart. Linebacker Eddie Lackey and safety Ahmad Dixon were first-team All-Big 12 selections last season and will be tough to replace in 2014. The Bears will have to play at Oklahoma and Texas next year. However, TCU, Oklahoma State and Kansas State visit Baylor’s new stadium.
3. Kansas State
Key Returnees: QB Jake Waters, QB Daniel Sams, WR Tyler Lockett, WR Curry Sexton, LG Cody Whitehair, C B.J. Finney, DE Ryan Mueller, DE Marquel Bryant, DT Demonte Hood, DT Travis Britz, LB Jonathan Truman, LB Will Davis, CB Randall Evans, S Dante Barnett
Key Losses: RB John Hubert, WR Tramaine Thompson, LT Cornelius Lucas, RG Keenan Taylor, RT Tavon Rooks, DE Alauna Finau, DT Chaquil Reed, LB Jake Slaughter, LB Tre Walker, CB Kip Daily, CB Dorrian Roberts, S Ty Zimmerman
After a 2-4 start, Kansas State quietly finished 2013 with six victories over its final seven games. And all five of the Wildcats’ losses last season came by 10 points or less. Considering 2013 was essentially a rebuilding year, Kansas State is poised to begin 2014 as one of the top 20-25 teams in the nation. Jake Waters and Daniel Sams form a solid duo at quarterback, and receiver Tyler Lockett is one of the best in college football. There’s no clear replacement for running back John Hubert and three offensive line starters (including both tackles) are gone. Despite returning only three starters, the defense finished third in the Big 12 in total defense. This unit should rank near the top of the conference once again, especially with end Ryan Mueller returning. The biggest concern on defense will be replacing linebackers Blake Slaughter and Tre Walker, along with safety Ty Zimmerman.
Key Returnees: QB David Ash, QB Tyrone Swoopes, RB Malcolm Brown, RB Joe Bergeron, RB Johnathan Gray, RB/WR Daje Johnson, WR Jaxon Shipley, WR Kendall Sanders, WR Marcus Johnson, C Dominic Espinosa, OT Kennedy Estelle, DE Cedric Reed, DT Malcom Brown, DT Desmond Jackson, DT Hassan Ridgeway, LB Steve Edmond, LB Dalton Santos, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Peter Jinkens, CB Quandre Diggs, CB Duke Thomas, S Mykkele Thompson, S Josh Turner
Key Losses: QB Case McCoy, WR Mike Davis, LT Donald Hawkins, RG Mason Walters, RT Trey Hopkins, DE Jackson Jeffcoat, DT Chris Whaley, CB Carrington Byndom, S Adrian Phillips, P Anthony Fera
A new era is underway in Austin. Mack Brown is gone, and Charlie Strong is in. And despite a new coaching staff, a similar theme remains with the Longhorns. There’s no shortage of talent, but the offense is a question mark. Since Colt McCoy has expired his eligibility, Texas has struggled to get consistent play from its quarterbacks. Will the return of David Ash be the answer? Or will the Longhorns turn to talented sophomore Tyrone Swoopes? With concerns at quarterback, expect the Longhorns to lean on a talented trio of running backs. New line coach Joe Wickline will have his hands full this spring, as Texas needs to replace three starters in the trenches. The offense is clearly a work in progress, but the defense – especially under Strong’s leadership – will be one of the best in the Big 12. End Jackson Jeffcoat will be missed. However, Cedric Reed, Malcom Brown and Desmond Jackson is a solid start in the trenches. And the defense will get a boost from the return of linebacker Jordan Hicks from injury, while cornerback Quandre Diggs turned down the NFL for one more season in Austin.
5. Oklahoma State
Key Returnees: QB J.W. Walsh, RB Desmond Roland, WR Jhajuan Seales, WR Marcell Ateman, LT Daniel Koenig, OT Devin Davis, C Jake Jenkins, DE Jimmy Bean, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DE Sam Wren, DT James Castleman, LB Ryan Simmons, LB Kris Catlin, CB Kevin Peterson, CB Ashton Lampkin, S Lyndell Johnson
Key Losses: QB Clint Chelf, RB Jeremy Smith, WR Josh Stewart, WR Tracy Moore, WR Charlie Moore, OG Brandon Webb, OG Parker Graham, DE Tyler Johnson, DT Calvin Barnett, LB Caleb Lavey, LB Shaun Lewis, LB Joe Mitchell, CB Justin Gilbert, CB Tyler Patmon, S Daytawion Lowe, S Shamiel Gary
With 28 seniors leaving, Oklahoma State will have a hard time replicating its 10-win mark from 2013. But the Cowboys won’t fall too far in the Big 12 pecking order, as coach Mike Gundy has the program on stable ground, and there’s talent in the program. Gundy’s first order of business is to find a replacement for quarterback Clint Chelf. Will J.W. Walsh get the nod? Or will incoming freshman Mason Rudolph earn the right to start next year’s season opener against Florida State? Regardless of who starts at quarterback, expect running back Desmond Roland to get a heavy workload in 2014. The offensive line will regain the services of tackle Devin Davis, but losing line coach Joe Wickline is a huge blow. While the offense has question marks, the defense is a bigger concern. Linebackers Shaun Lewis and Caleb Lavey, along with tackle Calvin Barnett and cornerback Justin Gilbert will be tough to replace. The Cowboys also face a challenging schedule, one that features road tests at TCU, Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma.
6. Texas Tech
Key Returnees: QB Davis Webb, QB Michael Brewer, RB Kenny Williams, RB DeAndre Washington, WR Jakeem Grant, WR Bradley Marquez, WR Jordan Davis, WR Reginald Davis, LT Le’Raven Clark, LG Alfredo Morales, C Jared Kaster, RG Beau Carpenter, DT Branden Jackson, DT Jackson Richards, LB Pete Robertson, LB Sam Eguavoen, LB Micah Awe, SS Austin Stewart, S Keenon Ward, S J.J. Gaines
Key Losses: QB Baker Mayfield, WR Eric Ward, TE Jace Amaro, RT Rashad Fortenberry, DE Kerry Hyder, NT Dennell Wesley, DT Dartwan Bush, LB Will Smith, LB Terrance Bullitt, CB Olaoluwa Falemi, CB Bruce Jones, S Tre Porter
A soft schedule helped Texas Tech jump to a 7-0 start in 2013. The Red Raiders were unable to build off their early momentum and finished the regular season at 7-5. However, Texas Tech was one of the winners of the bowl season, handling Arizona State 37-23 in the Holiday Bowl. Second-year coach Kliff Kingsbury has this program trending in the right direction, and the Red Raiders will be a tough out for every team in the Big 12. Quarterback Michael Brewer should be healthy after dealing with a back injury last year, but Davis Webb finished the season by throwing for 403 yards and four touchdowns against the Sun Devils. The winner of the quarterback battle will need to find new go-to targets with Eric Ward and Jace Amaro moving onto the NFL. Defensive end Kerry Hyder is the biggest loss on defense. Texas Tech will have some holes to fill on defense outside of Hyder, but a top priority for spring practice is creating more turnovers after forcing only 19 in 2013.
Key Returnees: QB/WR/RB Trevone Boykin, RB B.J. Catalon, RB Aaron Green, WR LaDarius Brown, WR Brandon Carter, WR Josh Doctson, WR David Porter, OT Aviante Collins, C Joey Hunt, DE Devonte Fields, DE Terrell Lathan, DE James McFarland, DT Chucky Hunter, DT Davion Pierson, DT Jon Lewis, LB Paul Dawson, LB Jonathan Anderson, LB Marcus Mallet, CB Kevin White, S Chris Hackett, S Derrick Kindred, S Sam Carter, K Jaden Oberkrom
Key Losses: QB Casey Pachall, OT James Dunbar, RG Eric Tausch, DE Jon Koontz, CB Jason Verrett, S Elisha Olabode
The Horned Frogs are coming off their worst season under coach Gary Patterson. And over the last two years, TCU is just 6-12 in Big 12 play. However, all is not lost in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by injuries, including significant ones to end Devonte Fields and quarterback Casey Pachall last season. Fields is set to return in 2014, and TCU should have one of the best defenses in the Big 12 – even with top cornerback Jason Verrett expiring his eligibility. While the defense is in good shape, the offense is in need of an overhaul. Patterson shuffled his coaching staff, bringing aboard Doug Meacham from Houston to call plays. Meacham should be an upgrade as the team’s offensive coordinator, but TCU has to find a quarterback. Is Trevone Boykin the answer there? Or is he suited to be an all-around threat? Perhaps the answer for the quarterback question is an incoming freshman.
8. Iowa State
Key Returnees: QB Grant Rohach, QB Sam Richardson, RB Aaron Wimberly, RB DeVondrick Nealy, WR Quenton Bundrage, WR Tad Ecby, WR Jarvis West, WR Dondre Daley, TE E.J. Bibbs, C Tom Farniok, OT Brock Dagel, OG Daniel Burton, DE Cory Morrissey, DT Rodney Coe, DT David Irving, NG Brandon Jensen, LB Luke Knott, LB Jevohn Miller, LB/DB Jared Brackens, CB Sam E. Richardson, CB Nigel Tribune
Key Losses: RB Shontrelle Johnson, RB James White, WR Justin Coleman, DE Willie Scott, LB Jeremiah George, CB Jansen Watson, S Jacques Washington, S Deon Broomfield, P Kirby Van Der Kamp
With Paul Rhoads on the sidelines, the Cyclones are always a candidate to outperform their preseason prediction. Iowa State started 2013 with a disappointing loss to Northern Iowa, but Rhoads’ team rallied with back-to-back wins to finish the year. The Cyclones have momentum going into 2014, and there is enough returning to contend for a bowl. Mark Mangino was a solid choice to be the team’s offensive coordinator, and the veteran coach has to find an answer at quarterback between Grant Rohach and Sam Richardson. Rohach finished the year with back-to-back 300-yard games and should have an edge over Richardson. Running back Aaron Wimberly and receiver Quenton Bundrage are potential breakout players in 2014, and the offensive line returns largely intact. Without Jake Knott and A.J. Klein anchoring the linebacking corps, Iowa State took a step back on defense last year. The Cyclones have a few significant losses on defense this season, as linebacker Jeremiah George and safety Jacques Washington were All-Big 12 performers. If Mangino is able to build off Rohach’s late-season success, and the defense shows progress, there’s enough returning for Iowa State to get back to the six-win mark.
9. West Virginia
Key Returnees: QB Clint Trickett, QB Paul Millard, RB Dreamius Smith, RB Wendell Smallwood, WR Daikiel Shorts, WR Kevin White, WR Mario Alford, LG Quinton Spain, RG Mark Glowinski, DE Kyle Rose, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, LB Jared Barber, LB Isaiah Bruce, LB Brandon Golson, CB Travis Bell, CB Daryl Worley, CB Ishmael Banks, S Karl Joseph, S K.J. Dillon
Key Losses: RB Charles Sims, WR Ronald Carswell, LT Nick Kindler, C Pat Eger, RT Curtis Feight, DT Will Clarke, NT Shaq Rowell, LB Doug Rigg, S Darwin Cook
Is 2014 a make-or-break year for Dana Holgorsen? After a 10-3 mark in his first season, the Mountaineers are just 11-14 over the last two years. Moving to the Big 12 certainly increased West Virginia’s competition, and the offense lost three of the top players in school history after the 2012 season (Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin). Replacing Smith, Bailey and Austin was no easy assignment, as the Mountaineers used three starting quarterbacks and averaged only 26.3 points a game. Developing a quarterback (Paul Millard or Clint Trickett) is critical for Holgorsen’s offense, but West Virginia has a potential All-Big 12 running back in Rushel Shell eligible to play in 2014. The defense was a disaster in 2012 and showed some improvement with Keith Patterson calling the plays in 2013. Injuries hit the unit hard throughout the season, but with the personnel set to return, the Mountaineers should be able to make slight improvement on defense in 2014. West Virginia doesn’t catch a break in scheduling next year. The Mountaineers play Alabama in the season opener and travel to Maryland two weeks later. If there’s a bright spot, West Virginia has five conference home games, including swing games against TCU, Kansas State and Kansas.
Key Returnees: QB Jake Heaps, QB Montell Cozart, RB Darrian Miller, RB Brandon Bourbon, RB/WR Tony Pierson, WR Tre’ Parmalee, WR Rodriguez Coleman, TE Jimmay Mundine, OG Ngalu Fusimalohi, OG Mike Smithburg, DE/LB Ben Goodman, DE/LB Michael Reynolds, DT Keon Stowers, LB Ben Heeney, LB Jake Love, CB JaCorey Shepherd, CB Dexter McDonald, SS Isaiah Johnson, S Cassius Sendish, DB Victor Simmons, DB Courtney Arnick
Key Losses: RB James Sims, LT Riley Spencer, C Gavin Howard, RT Aslam Sterling, DE/DT Keba Agostinho, DL Kevin Young, DT Jordan Tavai, S Dexter Linton
Charlie Weis has made small progress in Lawrence. The Jayhawks ended a 27-game Big 12 losing streak with a 31-19 victory over West Virginia in mid-November. However, Kansas’ other two victories were against South Dakota and Louisiana Tech, and this team lost by a combined score of 65-10 in its final two games (Iowa State, Kansas State). Running back James Sims (3,592 career rushing yards) has expired his eligibility, but Darrian Miller, Tony Pierson and Brandon Bourbon are capable options on the ground. While Sims is a big loss, quarterback play and developing targets at receiver is a bigger issue for Weis. New coordinator John Reagan was a good hire for the Jayhawks, and he will be tasked with developing quarterbacks Jake Heaps and Montell Cozart. The defense returns largely intact, and coordinator Dave Campo should have better depth in 2014. The Jayhawks ranked eighth in the Big 12 in total defense last season, but Big 12 opponents averaged 37.2 points a game. The returning talent should help Kansas make small gains on defense next year.