Examining Favorable College Football Over/Under Win Total Bets
Arizona State Sun Devils WR N'Keal Harry
It's time for the final article of my college football win total series and it's for the readers who just want my favorite overs and unders and didn't want to go through each article to find them. You'll notice that I put these into two categories of overs and unders that I really like despite the price and ones that I like because of the price. You also will see that a lot of the overs and unders that I've selected do not leave much doubt as to that team winning (or not winning) enough games so that you also win. As was the case with the conference breakdowns, these win totals are provided by the South Point Sportsbook.
2018 Over/Under Win Total Conference Breakdowns: ACC I Big 12 I Big Ten I Pac-12 I SEC I AAC I CUSA I MAC I MW I Sun Belt
Win totals I like despite the price
Old Dominion Monarchs Over 5.5 wins -145
Sure wins: FIU, VMI, at Rice
Winnable games: at Liberty, at Charlotte, at ECU, Marshall, at WKU, Middle Tennessee, North Texas
Sure losses: Virginia Tech, at FAU
The Monarchs' schedule gives me plenty of opportunities to get to those precious six wins. I think there are three games where they are the overwhelming favorite with seven others that they can win. I am worried that four of those games are on the road, but the defense should be strong and the offense will be improved as well. Liberty, Charlotte and East Carolina are pretty bad teams.
Virginia Cavaliers Over 5 wins +115
Sure wins: Richmond, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Liberty
Winnable games: Ohio, Louisville, Miami,
Sure losses: at Indiana, at NC State, at Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech
As you can see here, I think there's a good shot this team goes undefeated at home, but loses every road game. The Cavaliers' defense is better than people think and Bryce Perkins will be really interesting to watch at quarterback. I think he'll provide an excitement Virginia fans haven't seen in Charlottesville in a few years. I'm a buyer on the Hoos.
Buffalo Bulls Over 7 wins -110
Sure wins: Delaware State, EMU, Army, Akron, Miami, Kent State
Winnable games: at Temple, at Rutgers, at CMU, at Bowling Green
Sure losses: at Toledo, at Ohio
Buffalo's season would have been a whole lot better last year if QB Tyree Jackson stayed healthy. This team has an NFL-caliber WR in Anthony Johnson and an NFL-caliber linebacker in Khalil Hodge. I think Lance Leipold guides the Bulls to a bowl game and Buffalo challenges for MAC East title.
Win totals I like because of the price
Arizona Wildcats Over 8 wins +105
Sure wins: BYU, Southern Utah, California, Colorado, Arizona State
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Winnable games: at Houston, at Oregon State, USC, Oregon, at Washington State
Sure losses: at Utah, at UCLA
Khalil Tate figures to be a factor in the Heisman Trophy race and with eight starters back on offense and nine back on defense, Arizona is going to be tough to handle. There's a new energy surrounding the program with Kevin Sumlin taking over as head coach. There are five wins in place with two other potential ones being at home. I could probably move Houston and Oregon State to the win category, but since those games are on the road, I'll say there's a chance the Wildcats lose one of those. At this price, I'm willing to take my chances that Arizona can get to nine wins.
Arizona State Sun Devils Under 4.5 wins +115
Sure wins: UTSA, Oregon State
Winnable games: Stanford, Utah, UCLA
Sure losses: Michigan State, at San Diego State, at Washington, at Colorado, at USC, at Oregon, at Arizona
Man, you could not have gotten a worse draw in terms of road conference games. The Sun Devils were a trip to Stanford away from getting pretty much every good team outside of Tempe. I also think new head coach Herm Edwards could be a bit of a disaster so this could be a really long season for Arizona State. The under here looks really juicy.
Pittsburgh Panthers Under 5 wins +110
Sure wins: Albany, Syracuse
Winnable games: Duke, Georgia Tech, at North Carolina, at Virginia, Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest
Sure losses: Penn State, at UCF, at Notre Dame, at Miami
The Panthers went 5-7 last year with poor quarterback play despite having plenty of weapons to work with. Now, sophomore Kenny Pickett is the starter with not as strong of a supporting cast around him. The defense should be better because seven starters are set to return, but the schedule is really tough. I think five wins is the most I see for Pitt so I'm willing to take the under at this price in order to potentially get my money back.
Honorable Mentions
Texas Tech Under 6 (+105) -- The Red Raiders probably have to beat West Virginia or Oklahoma at home to even get to six.
North Carolina Under 5.5 (+110) -- Larry Fedora's team won't be making a ton of headlines on the field during the season.
Michigan State Over 9 (+105) -- This could be another case where the price is good enough to accept a potential push.
-- Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.
