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Examining the Over/Under 2018 Win Totals for the MAC


The MAC should be another fun conference to follow this coming season. The usual suspects are going to be atop the mix with Northern Illinois and Toledo, but there are some intriguing squads that could throw a wrench into that. You'll read more about it later, but I really like Buffalo. It's time for the final conference of our tour around FBS as we look at the win totals provided by South Point sportsbook and chime in on whether there's value in the over/under.

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MAC East

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Akron Zips

Over 4.5 wins -105...Under 4.5 wins -115

Non-Conference Games: at Nebraska, Morgan State, at Northwestern, at Iowa State

Terry Bowden is 31-44 in six seasons with the school. The Zips' defense is going to be really good with nine starters returning. That side of the ball improved by five points per game in 2017 and should see more of that in '18. The problems come on offense where they need to work on quarterback and running back issues. Thankfully the offensive line is almost intact. Five of the team's first seven games are on the road so Akron needs to figure things out pretty quickly.

Verdict: I've got 4-5 wins for the Zips so no play here.

College Football Rankings: Bowling Green

Bowling Green Falcons

Over 4.5 wins -110...Under 4.5 wins -110

Non-Conference Games: at Oregon, Maryland, Eastern Kentucky, at Georgia Tech

Bowling Green has a lot of issues that the Falcons need to look at entering the season. The defense has been horrendous so the school went out and hired new coordiantor Carl Pelini to try and turn it around. Teams averaged more than 500 yards against Bowling Green while putting up 38 points per game. The offense failed to score 20 points on four different occasions last season. Quarterback Jarret Doege is back to try and improve things after making five starts as a freshman. The Falcons do get three of their first four at home, but they close out with three of their final five on the road.

Verdict: I've got 4-5 wins so no play.

College Football Rankings: Buffalo

Buffalo Bulls

Over 6.5 wins -125...Under 6.5 wins +105

Non-Conference Games: Delaware State, at Temple, at Rutgers, Army

Buffalo is my favorite team in the MAC and I will probably be playing the Bulls often this season especially as an underdog. The record in 2017 may have been just 6-6, but it would have been a whole lot better if quarterback Tyree Jackson had stayed healthy. When he got hurt, Buffalo's offense felt the pain. But he returned in late October to help the Bulls go 3-1 down the stretch. Anthony Johnson is an underrated wide receiver who should be getting more love from NFL scouts. The defense features Khalil Hodge, who is a tackling machine at linebacker. Road trips to Toledo and Ohio scare me, but Buffalo does not draw Northern Illinois.

Verdict: The over is my favorite play in the conference.

College Football Rankings: Kent State

Kent State Golden Flashes

Over 2.5 wins EVEN...Under 2.5 wins -120

Non-Conference Games: at Illinois, Howard, at Penn State, t Ole Miss

Kent State did themselves no favors with this non-conference schedule. The only thing it accomplishes is a nice paycheck for the program because the Golden Flashes aren't going on the road and winning these games. Last year they lost by 53 at Clemson, 21 at Marshall and 39 at Louisville. The defense saw an increase in points allowed despite not being a terrible unit. They didn't get a lot of rest considering how many times the offense went three-and-out. Kent State scored just 12.8 points per game in 2017. The team is hoping to play faster under new head coach Sean Lewis. We'll see how the Golden Flashes do in that respect with just four starters returning on offense.

Verdict: This is a one- or two-win team. The under is probably worth a look.

College Football Rankings: Miami (OHIO)

Miami RedHawks

Over 6.5 wins EVEN...Under 6.5 wins -120

Non-Conference Games: Marshall, at Cincinnati, at Minnesota, at Army

Miami lost five games by eight points or fewer in 2017 so the RedHawks were close to making their second straight bowl game. Eight starters return on each side of the ball. The offense and defense both averaged 24 points per game, another reason why Miami went 5-7. Quarterback Gus Ragland was very good and he's got his top weapon back in wide receiver James Gardner (927 yards, 11 TDs). Nine of the 12 top tacklers from last year return, which bodes well for the defense maintaining its level of play. The RedHawks have just five true home games and road trips to Minnesota, Buffalo and Northern Illinois to worry about.

Verdict: The money move isn't bad. This could be a very good team with an ugly record due to a tough schedule.

College Football Rankings: Ohio

Ohio Bobcats

Over 8.5 wins +115...Under 8.5 wins -135

Non-Conference Games: Howard, at Virginia, at Cincinnati, UMass

Frank Solich has done wonders with the school going 97-71 as he enters his 14th year with the Bobcats. Last season they went 9-4 behind an offense that averaged nearly 40 points per game. Nine starters return on that side of the ball, including talented quarterback Nathan Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher A.J. Ouellette. Wide receiver Papi White has the potential to be very good as well, meaning Ohio's offense should be tough to slow down once again. The defense has to replace seven starters, including most of its font seven. The Bobcats have a stretch of four road games over five weeks.

Verdict: The money move is right and the under is the way to go.

MAC West

College Football Rankings: Ball State

Ball State Cardinals

Over 4 wins -105...Under 4 wins -115

Non-Conference Games: Central Connecticut State, at Notre Dame, at Indiana, Western Kentucky

If the Cardinals can survive a tough start to the year, they have four of five at home at the end of September into October. It was a long 2017 for Ball State under center as four different quarterback combined for 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Riley Neal will try to take a stranglehold of the position after playing just three games before suffering a knee injury. James Gilbert and Caleb Huntley are really good running backs with each cracking the 1,000-yard mark previously. If they can stay healthy, then the offense should hold up its end of the bargain. The defense has to improve after allowing more than 40 points per game last year.

Verdict: Four is a good number.

College Football Rankings: Central Michigan