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Examining the Over/Under 2015 Win Totals for the Pac-12 South Division


Unlike the Pac-12North, the conference's southern division will be a lot tighter. USC has the pieces to make it to the College Football Playoff while Arizona State, UCLA and Arizona all could make some noise of their own. Outside of Colorado, we could potentially make a case for the other schools going bowling as well. 

Related: 2015 Pac-12 Predictions, Projected Records and Awards 

There are six teams in the Pac-12's South Division. This article will apply the win totals from one online sportsbook and discuss if there is any value in these numbers. A selection is made based on the team's schedule, in which the games are broken down into three categories - easy wins, toss-ups and certain losses. Most conference games are in the toss-up category unless there is a clear difference in talent.  

Note: Over/under odds courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook

Pac-12 South Division

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Arizona Wildcats

(Over 7 wins -210...Under 7 wins +160)

Record Last Year: 10-4, 7-2

Returning Starters: 11 (6 on offense, 5 on defense)

Offense: Anu Solomon was a pleasant surprise his freshman season under center. Solomon had 28 touchdowns to just nine interceptions. Nick Wilson rushed for almost 1,400 yards as a freshman last year. The WRs will be led by Cayleb Jones and Samajie Grant, who each had over six touchdowns thru the air. 

Defense: It all starts with Scooby Wright, who had 163 tackles as a sophomore last year. He makes things so much better. The team got good news when Reggie Gilbert was given another year of eligibility on the defensive line. The secondary will have to rebuild after last season.

Schedule: The Wildcats play three of their first four at home, hosting UTSA, Northern Arizona and UCLA. The lone road game in that group is at Nevada, whom they beat 35-28 last year. Starting in October, the team alternates home and road games the rest of the season. 

Selection: The over is the play although I'd wait for the price to come down a bit. Arizona's schedule lays out nicely in that the Wildcats get some easy games to start out the year before hitting the stretch where they travel to USC and Arizona in November.

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Arizona State Sun Devils

(Over 8.5 wins +130...Under 8.5 wins -170)

Record Last Year: 10-3, 6-3

Returning Starters: 12 (5 on offense, 7 on defense)

Offense: Taylor Kelly is gone, but ASU brings back experience in Mike Bercovici. The signal-caller had 12 touchdowns last year to just four interceptions. He's got D.J. Foster back, who accounted for 12 touchdowns last season when he split time between running back and wide receiver. The offense was 16th in the country last year, putting up 36.9 points per game.

Defense: Getting pressure up front could be an issue at the start with just one starting returnee on the front line. The good thing is that the secondary is almost all back as well as a stout linebacking corps.

Schedule: The season opens up with Texas A&M in Houston before three straight home games against Cal Poly, New Mexico and USC. The Sun Devils get their bye week towards the end of October. 

Selection: The under is the play, but as I've said in other articles, not at this price. The offense could surprise, but this schedule is tough. Getting USC, Oregon and Arizona at home will help, but not enough to sway me to take the over.

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Colorado Buffaloes

(Over 4.5 wins -210...Under 4.5 wins +160)

Record Last Year: 2-10, 0-9

Returning Starters: 15 (6 on offense, 9 on defense)

Offense: Sefo Liufau is back, but he has to improve on his turnovers. Liufau threw 15 interceptions last year, which were drive killers. Nelson Spruce is back and he was an integral part of the offense last year with 106 receptions. Christian Powell should be fresh after getting just 85 carries last year.

Defense: Jim Leavitt comes over from USF to try and fix this side of the ball. The Buffs return nine players here, but last year they allowed 39 points per game. The secondary figures to be a lot better with Ken Crawley leading the way.

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Schedule: Colorado gets four non-conference games, as it plays at Hawaii to start the season. After that it's UMass, Colorado State and Nicholls State. The Buffaloes get Oregon, Arizona, Stanford and USC at home. 

Selection: I'm going under on the Buffaloes, as I just don't know if they will get a conference victory. Getting the better teams at home helps, but I'm penciling them in for a loss at Hawaii as well as their rivalry game with Colorado State. Add the value that the under gives and we are sold.

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UCLA Bruins

(Over 9.5 wins +160...Under 9.5 wins -210)

Record Last Year: 10-3, 6-3

Returning Starters: 17 (9 on offense, 8 on defense)

Offense: The majority of this unit is back although the Bruins will have to replace Brett Hundley under center. Jerry Neuheisel has a bit of game experience, but he'll compete with true freshman Josh Rosen for the job. Whomever wins will have Paul Perkins to hand off to and Jordan Payton to throw to. The offensive line is almost intact from last year as well.

Defense: Myles Jack is back and he's not alone. A questionable secondary will get some help from a front seven that will get after the quarterback.

Schedule: The Bruins play five of their first eight at home. They host Virginia and BYU with a road game at UNLV in between in September. November will be tough with three of their four games on the road. 

Selection: I agree with the money move to the under on this one. If UCLA can pull one out at Arizona, Stanford or USC then maybe you can take the over, but I think each one of those road games is a loss.

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USC Trojans

(Over 8.5 wins -210...Under 8.5 wins +160)

Record Last Year:9-4, 6-3

Returning Starters: 14 (7 on offense, 7 on defense)

Offense: Cody Kessler figures to be in the thick of the Heisman race this season, especially if he improves in bigger games. Last year he had 39 touchdowns to just five interceptions. JuJu Smith will have to step up and replace Nelson Agholor, who went to the NFL. This offensive line could be the best in the Pac-12. 

Defense: There are several big names back led by Su'a Cravens and Adoree Jackson. The front line will need to replace Leonard Williams and Hayes Pullard. The unit will improve on their 115th-ranked pass defense from last year though.

Schedule: The Trojans warm up with three straight home games against Arkansas State, Idaho and Stanford. They have one two-game road trip in November at Colorado and Oregon. Other then that, this is a pretty manageable slate.

Selection: I'm a huge fan of USC this year. I think they finally play like the national power we've always known the Trojans to be. I will say this though, there is a case to be made for the under. Tough road games at Arizona State, Notre Dame, California and Oregon could all be losses.

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Utah Utes

(Over 7.5 wins -125...Under 7.5 wins -115)

Record Last Year: 9-4, 5-4

Returning Starters: 11 (6 on offense, 5 on defense)

Offense: Travis Wilson is the key once again. His inconsistency forced the team to yo-yo him in and out of the starting lineup. Devontae Booker ran for over 1,500 yards last year and will be a big help to take a load off Wilson's plate. The offensive line is pretty solid.

Defense: Hunter Dimick is one of the best in the Pac-12 after posting 10 sacks last year. The secondary will have to replace several players, but has Dominique Hatfield to build around.

Schedule: The Utes host Michigan and Utah State before two straight road games at Fresno State and Oregon. They then play three of their next four at home before splitting home and road games in November.

Selection: Small lean to the under for Utah. I think the Utes could make a statement with a win over Michigan in their season opener. As it has been the past few seasons, this team will go as Wilson goes under center.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.