Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Prediction: Flames Aim to Rebound Against Surging Gamecocks

Author:
Steven Lassan
Oct 29, 2024 6:20 PM EDT

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Liberty hosts Jacksonville State in a crucial Conference USA Wednesday night showdown in Week 10 of the 2024 college football season. The Flames and Gamecocks are two of the top teams in CUSA this year, so a spot in the conference title game could be on the line. And potentially, this could be the first of two meetings between these teams.

Liberty opened the '24 season as the favorite in Conference USA and started 5-0 by picking up wins over Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, East Carolina, and FIU. However, the Flames struggled to put away some of those teams, leaving plenty of doubt on whether or not coach Jamey Chadwell's squad could run the table again. Those doubts were realized last week, as Liberty was stunned 27-24 by FBS newcomer (and one of the lowest-rated teams in the nation) Kennesaw State.

After an 0-3 start, Jacksonville State has found its stride as it hits the meat of the Conference USA schedule. Coach Rich Rodriguez's squad has reeled off four wins in a row, including a 42-20 victory over Middle Tennessee last week. During this stretch, the Gamecocks have won each of their four games by 22 or more points.

Jacksonville State holds a 2-1 edge in the all-time series against Liberty. The Flames won 31-13 last season.

Jacksonville State at Liberty

Location: Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Va.
Kickoff: Wednesday, Oct. 30 at 7 p.m. ET
TV: CBS Sports Network
Spread: Liberty -1
Over/Under: 63.5
Announcers: Carter Blackburn and Luke Kuechly

Why Jacksonville State Will Win

Jacksonville State's offense enters Wednesday night's showdown averaging 53 points a contest and 7.7 yards a play in Conference USA action. The Gamecocks struggled to find their footing offensively in the early part of '24 but settled in once quarterback Tyler Huff took over as the No. 1 quarterback.

Huff directs an offense that leads CUSA in rushing (256.3 yards a game) and also ranks first in plays of 30-plus yards (18). Through the air, Huff has connected on 65.1 percent of his passes for 1,406 yards and eight scores. However, the Furman transfer has done plenty of damage on the ground, rushing for 654 yards and eight scores in '24.

In addition to Huff, Rodriguez can lean on running backs Tre Stewart (682 yards), Anwar Lewis (127), and Andrew Paul (124) to test a Liberty front allowing 115.7 rushing yards a game this season. The Flames have been tough against the run (3.3 yards a carry), but this defense has yet to see a ground game at the level Jacksonville State can bring on Wednesday night.

Jacksonville State's defense struggled in the early part of '24 but has held its three CUSA opponents to 19 points a contest. If Rodriguez's team can control the line of scrimmage with Huff and Stewart on offense, and limit Liberty's ground game, then the Gamecocks are likely to leave Virginia with a massive victory.

Why Liberty Will Win

Liberty hasn't played up to preseason expectations all year, but Chadwell's team still has arguably the best collection of talent and roster potential in CUSA. Could last week's loss to Kennesaw State serve as a wake-up call?

The Flames aren't quite as productive as last year's offense (38.3 points a game), but this unit still averages 31.5 points a contest and 6.3 yards a play. The strength of Chadwell's offense is its ground game, anchored by a deep stable of running backs and quarterback Kaidon Salter.

Jacksonville State ranks as CUSA's No. 1 rushing offense (256.3 a game), but Liberty isn't far behind at 221.2 rushing yards a contest. Running backs Quinton Cooley (582 yards) and Billy Lucas (355), along with Salter (270) should have no trouble finding running room against a Gamecocks' defense that ranks No. 117 in the nation in success rate against the run.

Salter's numbers have dipped a bit from last season, but the Tennessee transfer is still completing 61 percent of his passes for 1,280 yards and 10 touchdowns. Also, Salter is tied for first among CUSA signal-callers with four completions of 50-plus yards and has tossed only two picks over 159 attempts.

In a game with two high-powered offenses, the team with the better defense just needs to get a couple of stops to win. That edge should go to Liberty, as this unit ranks No. 33 nationally in success rate and limits teams to 22.2 points a game. And through four CUSA contests, the Flames are allowing only 112.8 rushing yards a game.

Final Analysis

Liberty is 12-0 at home under coach Jamey Chadwell and should be motivated to rebound after last week's shocking loss to Kennesaw State. Jacksonville State has been the better team in CUSA play and should have success on the ground against the Flames' solid defense. However, Liberty's high-powered offense and Salter do enough in the fourth quarter to rebound and score a big-time victory in the path to a CUSA title.