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Outback Bowl Preview and Prediction: Auburn vs. Wisconsin

Auburn Tigers

Auburn Tigers

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For two teams that have played just three times in history, there is some sneaky good history between Auburn and Wisconsin in bowl games.

The series is tied 1-1-1 all-time. A loaded Wisconsin offense pulled off a huge upset over No. 7 Auburn 24-10 in the 2006 Capital One Bowl. The Tigers controversially topped the Badgers in the Music City Bowl 28-14 to end the 2003 season and catapult Auburn to an unbeaten '04 campaign. The two played to a 7-7 tie in Madison in 1931.

This will be Auburn's second berth in the Outback Bowl. It won a classic overtime thriller against Northwestern to end the '09 season.

After Gary Andersen left for Oregon State, Barry Alvarez returns to the Big Red sideline for the second time since his retirement following the '05 upset of Auburn. It marks the 13th consecutive year that Wisconsin has spent the holiday season in a bowl game. Alvarez also coached the Badgers in the Rose Bowl loss to Stanford when Bret Bielema departed for Arkansas in 2012.

This is Wisconsin's fourth appearance in the Outback Bowl, but the Badgers have yet to get a win. Wisconsin lost to Georgia following the 1997 and 2004 seasons and was defeated by Tennessee to end the 2007 campaign.

Auburn vs. Wisconsin

Kickoff: Noon (Jan. 1)

TV Channel: ESPN2

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Spread: Auburn -6.5

Auburn’s Key to Victory: Stack the box

The Tigers have had defensive issues this year, to say the least — just pop in a tape of the Alabama or South Carolina game. Against conference foes, Auburn finished 10th in the SEC in rushing defense (183.9 ypg), including 289 yards and 227 yards allowed to Georgia and Alabama, respectively. Wisconsin is as one-dimensional as any team in the nation, so stacking the box in an effort to slow Doak Walker Award winner Melvin Gordon is a likely strategy. Alvarez claims Gordon is the best Wisconsin running back of all-time, and the junior will have a chance to prove it in his final collegiate game against the Tigers. Auburn will try to stop Gordon with an interim defensive coordinator, as veteran assistant Charlie Harbison will call the signals after the departure of Ellis Johnson. Former Florida coach Will Muschamp will be Auburn's defensive coordinator in 2015.

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Wisconsin's Key to Victory: Complete forward passes

This has been much easier said than done at Wisconsin this year. And needless to say, the Badgers have to score to keep up with Auburn. The Badgers are 118th in passing offense (150.8 ypg), 98th in pass efficiency offense (117.93), 96th with 14 passing touchdowns and own just a 14:13 TD:INT ratio. Stave has been anything but productive. He threw 26 incompletions and three interceptions against Ohio State, has completed just 53.6% of his passes all year and has just two touchdown passes in his last three games. Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement are fantastic weapons on the ground, but unless Stave can at least create the illusion of a passing threat, the Tigers will sell out to stop the run.

Final Analysis

Stopping the run will be the game plan for both teams as Wisconsin and Auburn are fourth (314 ypg) and 12th (258.5 ypg) nationally in rushing offense, respectively. Unlike Auburn, the Badgers have been strong against the run all season — at least, until facing Ohio State. The Tigers will be the best offense UW has faced all season, as Gus Malzahn's balanced spread attack is sure to gash a Badgers unit that gave up 301 yards rushing, 558 total yards and 59 points in the Big Ten title game.

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Prediction: Auburn 41, Wisconsin 24