The Rose Bowl matchup between Florida State and Oregon should be one of college football’s top postseason matchups. And there’s more at stake than just a Rose Bowl trophy, as the Ducks and Seminoles are playing in the first FBS college football playoff game and a chance to meet the winner of Ohio State and Alabama in the national championship game in Arlington, Texas.
The margin between Florida State and Oregon appears to be small. Although the good folks in Vegas like the Ducks as the favorite, the position-by-position analysis shows these two teams are even and should meet for an entertaining game on Jan. 1.
Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are the headliners and should have a huge performance against defenses that had their share of struggles in 2014. However, keep an eye on what happens in the trenches. Will Florida State’s shuffled offensive line make a big difference? Or will Oregon’s defensive front create enough pressure to disrupt Winston and slow down Dalvin Cook?
Let’s take a look at the position-by-position breakdown for the 2015 Rose Bowl:
Position-by-Position Rose Bowl Preview
Jameis Winston tossed more interceptions (17) this season than he did in 2013, but the sophomore still played at a high level. Despite a struggling offensive line and new faces at receiver, Winston completed 65.4 percent of his throws and helped FSU’s offense average 34.8 points per game in 2014. Winston didn’t take home much postseason hardware, but coach Jimbo Fisher believed his quarterback was better in 2014 than in his Heisman-winning 2013 campaign.
Marcus Mariota is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. The junior was lethal in the big-play department, recording 27 passing plays of 30 yards or more. And Mariota was incredibly efficient, tossing only two picks on 372 attempts and boasting a 68.3 completion percentage. Mariota led the nation by averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt. The junior also rushed for 669 yards and 14 scores in 2014. Mariota is the driving force behind Oregon’s offense and a main reason why the Ducks are in position to win the national title.
Karlos Williams was pegged by most to be FSU’s leading rusher in the offseason, but the senior finished with 609 yards and was passed by true freshman Dalvin Cook as the No. 1 option late in the year. Cook rushed for 905 yards and eight scores and averaged at least five yards per rush in each of the final four games. Mario Pender was limited by injuries in 2014 but averaged 5.2 yards per rush in limited snaps.
Similar to FSU, Oregon also had a true freshman lead the team in rushing. Royce Freeman powered the ground attack by recording 1,299 yards and 16 scores in his first season on campus. Sophomore Thomas Tyner was limited to nine games due to injury but has 1,098 yards in two seasons. Byron Marshall led the team in rushing last year (1,038 yards). However, Marshall played in an all-purpose role (383 rush yards, 61 receptions) in 2014.
The top two receiving options in the Rose Bowl reside on the Florida State sideline. Senior Rashad Greene is Jameis Winston’s favorite target (93 catches), while Nick O’Leary won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end. Freshman Travis Rudolph is an emerging star (32 catches), while Jesus Wilson, Ermon Lane and Kermit Whitfield round out the FSU receiving corps. The time to prepare for the Rose Bowl should help Winston and Rudolph develop a better connection.
The Ducks lost their top three statistical wide receivers from last season, but this unit has performed at a high level. Running back/receiver Byron Marshall leads the team with 61 catches, while redshirt freshman Devon Allen is one of the nation’s top big-play threats (16.7 ypc). Dwayne Stanford (37 catches) and Darren Carrington (17.9 ypc) are two valuable targets for Mariota. The loss of tight end Pharaoh Brown due to a season-ending knee injury was a huge hit to the receiving corps for Oregon.
The Seminoles battled inconsistency up front early in the season, but this unit has performed much better since freshman Roderick Johnson was inserted at left tackle and Cameron Erving was shifted to center. The offensive line has paved the way for rushers to average 4.8 yards per carry over the last four games and surrendered only two sacks in that span. Guard Tre Jackson was a first-team Athlon All-American in 2014.
Health is a major concern for this unit. Center Hroniss Grasu suffered a knee injury against Utah and missed the final three games. Grasu’s status for the Rose Bowl is uncertain. If Grasu can’t play, the Ducks will likely turn to Hamani Stevens at center. Senior Jake Fisher is one of the top tackles in college football, and his return from injury seemed to spark the offense after the loss to Arizona. Freshman Tyrell Crosby started seven games in 2014. This unit allowed 29 sacks in 13 games this year.
FSU’s defensive line is expected to receive a boost with the return of tackle Nile Lawrence-Stample. The junior suffered a pectoral injury earlier in the season but is expected to play in the Rose Bowl. This unit will also benefit from a healthy Eddie Goldman at tackle, while end Mario Edwards Jr. is one of the nation’s most underrated players. Depth is an issue here, but FSU’s front-line talent is capable of controlling the flow of the game.
Oregon’s base defense on its depth chart features a three-man alignment in the trenches. Ends Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner are the headliners, with Alex Balducci and Sam Kamp anchoring the nose guard spot. Buckner was more productive than Armstead on the stat sheet, recording 69 tackles and ranking first on the team with 12 tackles for a loss. The Ducks ranked 51st nationally against the run and generated 34 sacks.
Injuries were a major problem for FSU’s linebacking corps this year. Terrance Smith missed two games and was limited in others due to injuries. Smith recorded 85 stops, while Reggie Northrup led the team with 113 tackles. Redshirt freshman Matthew Thomas was also banged up throughout the second half of the year. He’s an x-factor to watch in the Rose Bowl.
The Ducks boast a veteran group of linebackers, led by honorable mention All-Pac-12 selection Joe Walker and senior Derrick Malone. Rodney Hardrick ranked fourth on the team with 65 stops, while Tony Washington rounds out the starting linebacking corps while recording 10 tackles for a loss and five sacks. Junior Christian French leads the team with 6.5 sacks.
The individual talent outweighs FSU’s place on the stat sheet this year. The Seminoles allowed 20 passing scores this season and ranked 10th in the ACC in pass efficiency defense. However, this unit has three standouts in safety Jalen Ramsey and cornerbacks P.J. Williams and Ronald Darby. Ramsey should be all over the field in various roles, while coordinator Charles Kelly needs Williams and Darby to regain their All-ACC form from last season.
Oregon was dealt a serious blow with the loss of cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu due to a knee injury. Without Ekpre-Olomu, the secondary will ask even more of senior cornerback Troy Hill, who broke up 16 passes and recorded 57 stops in 2014. Freshman Chris Seisay and Dior Mathis will also see an increased role at cornerback. Safety Erick Dargan leads the team with 82 tackles. Reggie Daniels and Tyree Robinson join Dargan as key contributors at safety. Oregon ranked 50th nationally in pass efficiency defense this season.
Kicker Roberto Aguayo is the best in college football. The sophomore connected on 25 of 27 attempts this season, including all three attempts from 50 yards or more. Punter Cason Beatty has been inconsistent but averaged 41.6 yards per punt in 2014 – a slight uptick from 2013. Rashad Greene (punts) and Kermit Whitfield (kickoffs) are dangerous return men. FSU does not have a score on kick or punt returns this year.
With the speed on Oregon’s roster, it’s no surprise this team has some of the nation’s top return men. Charles Nelson scored twice on punt returns, while three players averaged at least 20 yards per kickoff return. Devon Allen attempted only seven kickoff returns but averaged 27 yards per return. Two kickers – Matt Wogan and Aidan Schneider – combined to connect on 15 of 18 attempts. Punter Ian Wheeler wasn’t used much (39 punts) and averaged only 39.1 yards per kick.
Big advantage to FSU in coaching. Jimbo Fisher is 58-10 in five years with the Seminoles and has this program on a 29-game winning streak. Fisher’s staff is stocked with experienced and proven assistants, including recruiting ace Tim Brewster, line coach Rick Trickett and defensive line coach Sal Sunseri. The defense took a step back with several new faces in the lineup under first-year coordinator Charles Kelly. However, Kelly did a nice job of making second-half adjustments this season.
Mark Helfrich is a bit of a mystery. He’s 23-3 in two years as Oregon’s coach, but he also inherited a loaded squad - including Mariota - from former coach Chip Kelly. Helfrich and the staff did a good job of navigating various injuries this year, and offensive coordinator Scott Frost was a finalist for the Broyles Award. First-year defensive coordinator Don Pellum had his share of ups and downs, but the Ducks held their last three opponents under 20 points. This game is a huge opportunity for Helfrich to put his stamp on the program.