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Baseball has sabermetrics. Basketball has KenPom’s efficiency rankings. What does football have?
When it comes to advanced analytics, the game of football has lagged behind the other major American sports. Additionally, the college game trails well behind the more powerful (and better resourced) NFL.
That hasn’t stopped stat wizard Bill Connelly from introducing the college football world to advanced statistics. Athlon Sports brought in the accomplished author and statistician to help our readers become smarter and better football fans and the response has been exciting to say the least.
Connelly provided Athlon Sports’ magazines with a myriad of interesting, illuminating and critical advanced stats for every Big 5 team in the nation. Here are the SEC’s best.
Despite two late-season losses in 2013, Alabama has still had an incredible run over the last six seasons, going 72–9 with six top-10 finishes. But most of those nine losses have a common thread: pass defense. When Alabama loses, opponents complete 69.7 percent of their passes at 12.2 yards per completion. In Alabama wins, opponents complete 49.8 percent of their passes at 10.8 yards per completion.
Success Rate is an efficiency measure that determines each play as a success or failure, an on-base percentage for football. Arkansas’ defensive success rate in conference play was 52.6, easily the worst in the SEC. Only one other defense allowed a Success Rate higher than 47.2 percent (Kentucky at 49.8). New defensive coordinator Robb Smith inherits the least efficient personnel in the league.
Gus Malzahn’s offense averaged 5.1 points per trip inside the opponent’s 40-yard line. That ranked third in the country behind only Ohio State (5.6) and Florida State (5.5). Meanwhile, the Tigers’ defense ranked 41st in the same category, allowing only 3.9 points per trip.
The only thing more frustrating than struggling to move the ball is struggling to capitalize on the rare opportunities you create. Florida averaged just 3.5 points per trip inside the opponent’s 40 in 2013, 112th in the country. Despite rushing more than 40 times per game, Florida scored just 14 rushing touchdowns. Only 22 teams scored fewer, and only two averaged more rushing attempts per game.
Georgia’s field position margin in conference play was minus-2.6 — the Bulldogs’ average drive started at their 28.5, while opponents’ started at the 31.1. Georgia’s defense struggled to force three-and-outs, and the Bulldogs got next to nothing from the return game. Small disadvantages can add up in a season that features four losses by five or fewer points.
The Wildcats averaged just 4.4 yards per play in SEC games in 2013, last in the conference; the only team with almost as bad an offense (Florida at 4.7) balanced that out with solid defensive play. Kentucky was not so lucky, allowing 6.8 yards per play. The resulting minus-2.4-yard margin per play was by far the worst in the SEC.
Of the 37 fumbles that took place in LSU games in 2013 (22 by opponents, 15 by LSU), the Tigers recovered only 13, 35.1 percent of them. Based on fumbles and pass deflections, LSU should have had about a plus-7 turnover margin. Instead, it was plus-0; even worse, it was minus-3, with three fumbles lost, in the Tigers’ three losses, two of which came by three points.
Mississippi State: -18
Mississippi State played five teams that finished ranked in 2013. Average score: Opponent 32, Bulldogs 14, an average scoring margin of minus-18. The good news was that the Bulldogs went 7–1 against teams that finished unranked, though turnover luck may have played a role in that.
Mizzou ran 40.7 percent of the time on passing downs. To take pressure off of the passing games, offensive coordinator Josh Henson frequently used 3rd-and-5 or 2nd-and-9 as running downs. Once the pressure was diffused and opponents had to continue to respect the run, the Tigers found easy opportunities from their spread; last year’s top four receivers — Dorial Green-Beckham, Marcus Lucas, L’Damian Washington, and Bud Sasser — all averaged at least 8.5 yards per target on passing downs. DGB averaged 10.3.
Ole Miss: -3.4
Ole Miss averaged 6.0 yards per play in 2013 and allowed just 5.3; the plus-0.8 margin ranked 35th in the country. But thanks to field position issues, the Rebels had to gain more yards on a given drive just to catch up. Their field position margin was minus-3.4, 101st in the country — on average, they started at their 26.6 (113th) while opponents started at the 30.0. The special teams unit is often culpable in situations like this.
South Carolina: 5.0
While the Gamecocks were certainly better than opponents at just about any yard line, they derived significant advantages near both goal lines. They averaged 5.0 points per trip inside the opponent’s 40, eighth in the country; meanwhile, they allowed only 3.7 points per opponent’s trip, 13th. The resulting plus-1.3 point margin per trip was fifth-best in FBS.
Tennessee allowed 6.1 yards per play in 2013, 100th in the country. In SEC play, the Vols allowed 6.1 per play, 10th in the conference. Run defense was the culprit; the Vols ranked 23rd in Passing S&P+, a comprehensive play-by-play measure at Football Outsiders that measures explosiveness and efficiency and adjusts for the quality of the opponent. But they were only 74th in Rushing S&P+.
Texas A&M: 4.9
As iffy as Texas A&M’s defense was, it got worse with its back against the wall. The Aggies allowed 4.9 points per trip inside their 40 yards line in 2013, 115th in the country. The offense averaged 5.0 points per trip, which ranked 11th; that means that the A&M defense was able to almost turn any opponent into the A&M offense when points were on the line.
When Vanderbilt’s defense made stops, it did so quickly. The Commodores forced enough three-and-outs and turnovers that the offense’s average starting field position was its 33.3, seventh-best in the country. In conference play, the Commodores’ average was first. Unfortunately, an often ineffective offense (80th in yards per play) gave away a lot of those gains.