Skip to main content

SEC Football: Examining Over/Under Win Totals for the 2022 Season

Stetson Bennett, Georgia Bulldogs Football

Defending national champion Georgia, led by quarterback Stetson Bennet,, is once again considered the team to beat in the SEC East but not the conference as a whole.

Once again the SEC is atop the college football world, but it's the Georgia Bulldogs that are wearing the crown. UGA had one of the best defenses in the history of the sport with most of those players going to the NFL. They still figure to win the East once again although Tennessee and Florida are closing the gap ever so slightly. Kentucky and South Carolina are also heading in the right direction themselves.

Related: SEC Football 2022 Predictions

Meanwhile, the West should be Alabama's playground once again despite the awesome recruiting class brought in by Texas A&M. This game got a lot spicier in the offseason when Nick Saban called out A&M's tactics and Jimbo Fisher defended what the school did. Arkansas and Ole Miss are intriguing, but still aren't good enough to knock off the Crimson Tide. All in all, it should be a fun season once again and I didn't even mention LSU and new head coach Brian Kelly.

(Win totals provided by Draftkings)

SEC East

Florida (Over 7 -125...Under 7 +105)

Non-Conference Games: Utah, USF, Eastern Washington, at Florida State
Schedule Notes: Week 1 is a massive showdown with the Utes as some think Utah could be a sleeper for a playoff berth. The Gators have six of their first seven at home with just four true road games overall. The problem is they have Tennessee and Texas A&M as two of those.
QB: Anthony Richardson
Roster Notes: New head coach Billy Napier comes over from the Sun Belt and figures to bring an exciting offense. Richardson's mobility will be an important aspect as he ran for 401 yards last season. Finding weapons could be an issue with the top two RBs gone and five of the top eight receivers departing as well. There are some talented youngsters that will be asked to do more. On the defense, the secondary is going to be strong with plenty back and Georgia transfer Jalen Kimber. I really like their DL as well.

Prediction: Small lean to the over here.

Georgia (Over 10.5 -240...Under 10.5 +195)

Non-Conference Games: vs. Oregon (Atlanta), Samford, Kent State, Georgia Tech
Schedule Notes: It's an interesting first opponent as Oregon's offense will test the new-look defense. Other than that one, the Bulldogs should roll in their other non-conference contests. UGA gets Tennessee at home while the toughest true road trip is probably Kentucky.
QB: Stetson Bennett
Roster Notes: The defending champs have some serious work to do on defense as only three starters return. The front seven has some young talent, but how quickly will they gel together. There are some transfers as well, especially in the secondary. The offense should be fine with Bennett under center. He threw for 29 touchdowns to seven interceptions last season. His skill position guys are led by Brock Bowers and Arik Gilbert at tight end. The WR group is led by Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell.

Prediction: Wish I could take the under at that price, but I just can't.

Kentucky (Over 8 -115...Under 8 -105)

Non-Conference Games: Miami (Ohio), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois, Louisville
Schedule Notes: The Wildcats have five of their first seven at home. After a bye week, there are two straight on the road followed by three at home. UGA and South Carolina have to come to Lexington while the UK goes to Tennessee and Florida.
QB: Will Levis
Roster Notes: Kentucky lost OC Liam Coen to the NFL (Rams) this offseason, but picked up Richk Scangarello who was the 49ers' QBs coach last season. The running game should be sound with Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Kavosiey Smoke returning. The Wildcats lost Wan'Dale Robinson, but Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson will attempt to fill his role. On defense, Josh Paschal is in the NFL, but there's some depth up front to replace him. The secondary must improve.

Prediction: Small lean to the under.

Missouri (Over 5.5 +115...Under 5.5 -135)

Non-Conference Games: Louisiana Tech, at Kansas State, Abilene Christian, New Mexico State
Schedule Notes: Missouri alternates home and road tilts almost all year long except for the last two games being at home. The Tigers have one of the few non-conference road games in the SEC. The road is extremely tough in conference with Mizzou hosting Georgia and Arkansas as well.
QB Battle: Southern Miss transfer Jack Abraham vs. Brady Cook vs. Tyler Macon vs. Sam Horn
Roster Notes: There are four potential options at signal-caller with Abraham and Cook leading the way. The RB group is young and modestly inexperienced with Tyler Badie moving on. There are fewer questions on defense where Isaiah McGuire and Trajan Jeffcoat return. Blake Baker is the new defensive coordinator after being the linebackers coach at Louisiana Tech.

Prediction: Under is a solid play.

South Carolina (Over 6 -125...Under 6 +105)

Non-Conference Games: Georgia State, Charlotte, South Carolina State, at Clemson
Schedule Notes: The Gamecocks have six of their first eight at home, but the road trips are to Arkansas and Kentucky. After that, three of the final four are on the road. SC hosts Georgia, Texas A&M and Tennessee while playing at Arkansas and Florida.
QB: Oklahoma transfer Spencer Rattler
Roster Notes: Shane Beamer has done a great job shopping in the transfer portal starting with Rattler. The Gamecocks' signal-callers last year were pretty bad so this is a massive step up. Christian Beal-Smith (Wake Forest), Austin Stogner (Oklahoma), and Antwane Wells (JMU) also came over and will have key roles in the offense. The defense has just five starters returning.

Prediction: Solid number here.

Tennessee (Over 7.5 -160...Under 7.5 +135)

Non-Conference Games: Ball State, at Pitt, Akron, UT Martin
Schedule Notes: The Volunteers open up with three of four at home, but the road game at Pitt is an interesting one. Last year the Panthers came to Rocky Top and left with a victory. Tennessee hosts Alabama and Florida but must face Georgia and South Carolina on the road in November.
QB: Hendon Hooker
Roster Notes: Hooker was amazing last year for the Vols accounting for a ton of yards. He's back along with seven other offensive starters. There's stability in the backfield with three of the top four rushers returning. The offensive line should be really good too so this side of the ball should be very explosive. Nine of the top 12 tacklers are back, but this side of the ball needs to play better, especially in big games.

Prediction: Love the over here but certainly not paying this price. Shop around.

Vanderbilt (Over 2.5 +120...Under 2.5 -140)

Non-Conference Games: at Hawaii, Elon, Wake Forest, at Northern Illinois
Schedule Notes: Vanderbilt's schedule is very tough with road games at Alabama, Georgia and Kentucky in conference play. Road trips to Hawaii and Northern Illinois are interesting and are potentially winnable.
QB: Mike Wright
Roster Notes: Wright was the best of the signal-callers the Commodores used last year. He had eight touchdowns to just six interceptions while Ken Seals had five TDs vs. nine picks. The offense was awful all the way around last year so when I say their top three RBs are back as well as two of their top five receivers, it doesn't mean much. The defense returns the top four tacklers among seven starters. Head coach Clark Lea should improve things here.

Prediction: A handful (2-3) wins are what I had.

SEC West

Alabama (Over 10.5 -265...Under 10.5 +210)

Non-Conference Games: Utah State, at Texas, ULM, Austin Peay
Schedule Notes: For the first time in a while, Alabama is playing a true road game against a Power 5 opponent with the Crimson Tide heading to Austin to face the Longhorns in week two. Bama has five of its first eight at home and should be able to gather some momentum early. Oct. 8 is the game of the season when Texas A&M comes to Tuscaloosa. There are a couple of interesting SEC road trips, highlighted by LSU and Ole Miss in back-to-back weeks.
QB: Bryce Young
Roster Notes: The offense figures to reload once again, especially with Young leading the way. Georgia Tech transfer Jahmyr Gibbs will take over the backfield with Trey Sanders and Jase McClellan. One of their better offseason pickups was wide receiver Jermaine Burton, a Georgia transfer. The offensive line should remain strong. Defensively, linebacker Will Anderson Jr. might be the best player in the country. The other levels should be pretty strong, especially with LSU transfer Eli Ricks stepping in at cornerback.

Prediction: Over but not at that price.

Arkansas (Over 7.5 +125...Under 7.5 -145)

Non-Conference Games: Cincinnati, Missouri State, at BYU, Liberty
Schedule Notes: Much like Texas A&M, the Razorbacks have a streaky schedule. They don't have a true road game in the first five weeks of the season. That stretch is followed by three straight on the road which then leads to three of four at home. Alabama comes to Fayetteville on Oct. 1 after Arkansas plays the Aggies in Arlington on Sept. 24.
QB: KJ Jefferson
Roster Notes: Only 11 starters return for head coach Sam Pittman after a 9-4 campaign. Jefferson accounted for a lot of offense, including leading the team in rushing. This year the hope is that running back Raheim Sanders takes the next step. Someone has to replace NFL first-round pick Treylon Burks at wide receiver with transfers Jadon Haselwood (Oklahoma) and Matt Landers (Toledo) among the candidates. Linebacker Bumper Pool is back on D, but he's the only one of the top five tacklers to return. With so much talent and experience gone, this side of the ball could struggle.

Prediction: Solid number with a slight lean to the over.

Auburn (Over 6.5 +140...Under 6.5 -170)

Non-Conference Games: Mercer, SJSU, Penn State, WKU
Schedule Notes: It's a common theme in this conference that these teams have friendly home stretches. The Tigers begin with five straight in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Three of their next four on the road before two of three at home. They get A&M and Arkansas at home, but travel to Alabama for the yearly Iron Bowl.
QB Battle: TJ Finley vs. A&M transfer Zach Calzada
Roster Notes: Year two under Bryan Harsin will see the squad trying to improve from a 6-7 campaign in 2021. The skill positions have potential with Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter back in the backfield and three of the top 5 WR's returning as well. The defense is without their top three tacklers from last season. Colbey Wooden and Derick Hall are a good place to start at defensive end. The secondary is a question mark.

Prediction: I came up with 6-7 wins.

LSU (Over 7 +115...Under 7 -135)

Non-Conference Games: vs. Florida State (New Orleans), Southern, New Mexico, UAB
Schedule Notes: The Tigers play six of their first eight games in Louisiana. The opener with the Seminoles in New Orleans could set the tone and see how competitive Brian Kelly's bunch will be. LSU also plays Florida and Texas A&M on the road while Alabama and Tennessee come to Tiger Stadium.
QB: Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels
Roster Notes: Kelly made headlines this offseason because of accents and Tik Toks, but now we get to see how he coaches. Daniels was a nice roster addition after being solid for the Sun Devils with the occasional glimpses of being a superstar. Penn State transfer Noah Cain adds to a solid backfield. The top five receivers are returning and the OL should be solid too. The defense lost a TON of talent with guys like Derek Stingley Stingley Jr., Eli Ricks and Damone Clark among those gone. It's imperative that new coordinator Matt House fix things on defense or else it'll be a long year.

Prediction: Lean to the under.

Mississippi State (Over 6.5 -125...Under 6.5 +105)

Non-Conference Games: Memphis, at Arizona, Bowling Green, ETSU
Schedule Notes: The Bulldogs have two of their first three on the road, but then it's three straight at home. MSU hosts Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn and Georgia, but must travel to play Kentucky and Alabama.
QB: Will Rogers
Roster Notes: Head coach Mike Leach has plenty returning on both sides of the ball. It all starts with Rogers, who flourished in this offense with 36 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. This happened without much of a run game to speak of. The top two RBs are back along with three of the top four WRs so there should be some fireworks here. Eleven of the top 14 tacklers are back on defense. It's not the deepest group, but it still should be able to hold its own led by a real solid defensive line.

Prediction: Slight lean under.

Ole Miss (Over 7.5 -135...Under 7.5 +115)

Non-Conference Games: Troy, Central Arkansas, at Georgia Tech, Tulsa
Schedule Notes: Five of the first seven are at home for Ole Miss. The Rebels do have three of their final five on the road with one of the home dates against Alabama with an extra week to prepare. They play at Arkansas and Texas A&M.
QB Battle: USC transfer Jaxson Dart vs. Luke Altmyer
Roster Notes: Lane Kiffin's offense is without Matt Corral and the top three WRs from the 2021 campaign. We'll see who he chooses under center with two different candidates in play. The top three RBs departed as well, but two transfers will attempt to fill in there. The defense is a mix of seven returning starters and key transfers from schools like TCU and Central Michigan. There are new coordinators on both sides of the ball as well.

Prediction: I came up with 7-8 wins here so no play.

Texas A&M (Over 8.5 -150...Under 8.5 +130)

Non-Conference Games: Sam Houston, Appalachian State, Miami, UMass
Schedule Notes: The Aggies have a very streaky schedule. They don't play a true road game the first month of the season but then follow that up with three straight SEC matchups outside of the state of Texas. A&M closes out the year with four of five at home. Florida and Ole Miss both come to College Station but the Aggies will head to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Oct. 8.
QB Battle: LSU transfer Max Johnson vs. Haynes King
Roster Notes: The Aggies only have 11 starters back overall, but they replenished the roster with a fantastic recruiting class. The QB job is up for grabs with Johnson competing with King and heralded freshman Conner Weigman in the mix too. The recent arrest of leading receiver Ainias Smith is something to watch as well because that position group is not deep. The offensive line is a mixed bag of youth and experience. The majority of their returning players on defense are in the secondary, which means the DL is a bit raw. Some of those big-time recruits are going to have to step up early.

Prediction: Agree with the money move, but not playing at this price.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

Scroll to Continue

Recommended Articles