SEC Win Total Projections for 2015
Alabama Crimson Tide
The 2015 college football season is still a few months away. However, the news cycle never stops, and there’s plenty to keep the conversation going this summer.
Athlon Sports is counting down its rankings for 2015, while 5Dimes Sportsbook has released some early win total over/under odds for the upcoming season.
5Dimes’ win totals featured some interesting projections for Auburn, Tennessee and Alabama. Auburn was only 8.5, while the Crimson Tide is listed at 9.5 on the sportsbook.
With the win totals released, Athlon Sports is taking a look at all 14 of the SEC teams and whether we would take the over, under or push on the projections for 2015.
SEC Win Total Projections: Over, Under or Push
East Division
Florida: 7.5
Braden Gall: Over
Jim McElwain alone adds a win or two for this offense, and this team was WAY closer to winning the East than folks remember last year.
Steven Lassan: Under
I like the Jim McElwain hire, and the defense should be strong once again. However, the offensive line is a major issue, and a redshirt freshman (Will Grier) is likely to start at quarterback.
Mitch Light: Under
The defense should be stout, but there are too many issues on offense to expect this team to contend in the East.
Georgia: 9
Braden Gall: Over
The Dawgs are the clear-cut frontrunner in the East and get a bunch of big games at home. This is the most complete team in the easier division.
Steven Lassan: Over
The passing game is still a question mark, but the Bulldogs have the best backfield and one of the top defenses in the SEC. Outside of games against Alabama and Auburn, I don’t see a loss on this schedule.
Mitch Light: Over
The conference schedule is very tough — Georgia plays both Alabama and Auburn — but Mark Richt has the most complete team in the SEC.
Related: Georgia's Nick Chubb is the SEC's Top Running Back for 2015
Kentucky: 6
Braden Gall: Under
This team is improving under Coach Stoops, and Patrick Towles could will them to a push. But I'm going under with that schedule.
Steven Lassan: Push
I might be too optimistic on Kentucky, but a bowl seems reasonable for the Wildcats in 2015. Boom Williams is a breakout candidate at running back, and the talent level has improved on the recruiting trail. The finale against Louisville could be a must-win game to get to six.
Mitch Light: Over
Mark Stoops talented young core is a year older and should break through with the school’s first winning season since 2009.
Missouri: 7.5
Braden Gall: Over
When in doubt, take the over with Gary Pinkel. The defensive line is starting to become a concern, but Maty Mauk should improve and keep the Tigers in the East race.
Steven Lassan: Over
Never count out Missouri in the SEC East under Gary Pinkel’s watch. While I don’t think this team will win the division again, reaching eight wins is reasonable – if quarterback Maty Mauk plays better in SEC games.
Mitch Light: Under
We’ve been wrong about Missouri in the past, but this could be the year the Tigers take a step back in the East.
South Carolina: 7
Braden Gall: Push
Run as far away from this one as possible. South Carolina should be better on defense but is lacking in star power.
Steven Lassan: Push
South Carolina’s defense can’t be any worse than it was in 2014. That’s the good news. The bad news? There’s uncertainty at quarterback, two key starters gone from the offensive line and a lack of proven receivers outside of Pharoh Cooper. Additionally, crossover games against LSU and Texas A&M are tough.
Mitch Light: Push
Other than Pharoh Cooper, the Gamecocks don’t have many (or any) difference makers on offense.
Tennessee: 7.5
Braden Gall: Over
There are some key swing games — Oklahoma, Arkansas, Florida, Missouri — that could result in a push. I think they get over the hump in one of those.
Steven Lassan: Over
Tennessee is Georgia’s top challenger in the East. Yes, the schedule is tough, but the talent level is improving, Josh Dobbs is back for a full year under center, and the defense is trending up.
Mitch Light: Over
The Vols boast some of the top young talent in the league. As long as Josh Dobbs stays healthy, this is an eight-win team.
Related: Tennessee Ranks No. 22 in Athlon's Top 25 for 2015
Vanderbilt: 3
Braden Gall:Over
There aren't a lot of wins there but this defense should be legit. One SEC win gets you the over.
Steven Lassan: Push
The Commodores will be better in coach Derek Mason’s second season. But games against Western Kentucky and Houston aren’t guaranteed wins, and it’s tough to find a win in SEC play.
Mitch Light: Over
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The Commodores’ non-conference schedule is tricky, but Derek Mason’s club will find a way to win at least four games.
West Division
Alabama: 9.5
Braden Gall: Over
This may not be a national title-type team at Bama but losing three times in the regular season seems highly unlikely with that talent and Nick Saban calling the shots.
Steven Lassan: Over
Alabama has won at least 10 games in each of the last seven seasons. There are some concerns – quarterback, receiving corps and secondary – but the Crimson Tide isn’t short on talent. Nick Saban will keep this team among the nation’s best in 2015.
Mitch Light: Over
This is far from a perfect team, but Alabama still has fewer weaknesses than 99 percent of the teams in the nation.
Related: Alabama Ranks No. 2 in Athlon's Top 25 for 2015
Arkansas: 8.5
Braden Gall: Under
I love what Bret Bielema has done and this team will be in every game it plays. But it needs balance against an elite schedule to win nine games.
Steven Lassan: Under
This is one of the toughest picks on the board. Arkansas is due for better luck in close games and has two swing contests against Tennessee and Missouri from the East. If Dan Enos helps the passing attack improve, the Razorbacks could hit nine victories.
Mitch Light: Under
The Hogs are a top-20 team, but a brutal schedule will prevent them from winning nine or 10 games.
Related: Arkansas Ranks No. 16 in Athlon's Top 25 for 2015
Auburn
: 8.5
Braden Gall: Over
Take the over and run. This is the best bet on this SEC board. Athlon Sports has the Tigers making the playoff, so 11 wins is essentially a must for that to happen. And it could easily.
Steven Lassan: Over
Easiest pick among the SEC teams. Take the over. Auburn is due to rebound back into the national title conversation this year. The offense is explosive behind quarterback Jeremy Johnson, and the defense will improve with Will Muschamp calling the plays.
Mitch Light: Over
The Auburn offense, led by QB Jeremy Johnson, will be explosive. This is a legitimate national title contender.
LSU: 8
Braden Gall: Under
Like Carolina in the East, there are just too many questions to bet on LSU in anyway. I'd punt this one with anything from six to 10 wins possible for the Tigers.
Steven Lassan: Push
LSU is the hardest team to figure out in the SEC this season. Talent isn’t the issue, but there’s massive uncertainty at quarterback and a new scheme (and personnel concerns) on defense. If all of the pieces fall into place, the Tigers could finish 9-3 or 10-2. However, matching last year’s win total seems more realistic.
Mitch Light: Push
It wouldn’t surprise me if this team went 10–2 or 6–6. Let’s split the difference.
Mississippi State: 7
Braden Gall: Over
They may not finish in the top half of the West but last place could easily win seven games. I'll give Dak Prescott credit for one extra win somewhere.
Steven Lassan: Push
Another tough call. Mississippi State is losing a lot, but there’s also talent waiting to step into the lineup. The Bulldogs will get better as the season goes along, and senior quarterback Dak Prescott could pull off an upset late in the year to push Mississippi State to eight wins.
Mitch Light: Push
The Bulldogs have a star at quarterback in Dak Prescott but suffered heavy personnel losses elsewhere.
Related: Mississippi State Ranks No. 21 in Athlon's Top 25 for 2015
Ole Miss: 8.5
Braden Gall: Over
This team is a QB away from being a national title contender and still could be without one. The Rebels are closer to Bama/Auburn territory than LSU.
Steven Lassan: Over
Even with the losses in the secondary, Ole Miss should have one of the nation’s top defenses. While the quarterback spot and rushing attack is a concern, the talent at receiver is better, and the offensive line is improving. I think Ole Miss could go 10-2 in 2015.
Mitch Light: Over
The Rebels are my sleeper pick to flirt with a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Texas A&M: 7.5
Braden Gall: Over
There is a lot of upside here in terms of talent and coaching. However, it's very young or new to campus. If I had to bet, I'd take the over but I'd stay away from the volatile Aggies.
Steven Lassan: Over
One team is going to exceed preseason expectations in the West. Texas A&M is a good sleeper pick, as the Aggies are dynamic once again on offense, and the defense will be better under John Chavis. A crossover schedule with Vanderbilt and South Carolina certainly helps.
Mitch Light: Under
The Aggies are loaded with talent, but do the math: Not every team can win eight in the SEC West.
Related: Texas A&M's Kyle Allen Ranks No. 4 Among SEC QBs for 2015
