Urban Meyer Predicts Massive Regression For Major College Football Program
Fans in Knoxville, Tennessee, are eagerly anticipating the start of the 2025 college football season, but the excitement comes with plenty of uncertainty about their Volunteers.
Tennessee will once again be led by head coach Josh Heupel, entering his fifth season at the helm. The Vols finished 10-3 last year, including a 6-2 mark in SEC play. They earned a spot in the College Football Playoff but were soundly defeated by Ohio State on the road, 42-17.
One of the biggest storylines of the offseason was the departure of quarterback Nico Iamaleava. After leading the team last season, Iamaleava entered the transfer portal late in the process and eventually committed to UCLA.
That development, along with other offseason drama, has former national championship-winning coach Urban Meyer expressing doubt about Tennessee’s chances this year.
In an appearance with Rob Stone, Meyer broke down his expectations for the Vols, as reported by Sam Gillenwater of On3 Sports:
"Urban Meyer predicts Tennessee to go under 8.5 win total in 2025"
Ohio State Buckeyes former head coach Urban Meyer.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Following expected wins in the Vols’ first two games, Meyer sees the schedule getting tough beginning September 13.
When asked about their home matchup against Georgia, he didn’t hesitate: “They lose.” Another marquee showdown arrives on October 18, when Tennessee visits Alabama. Meyer was blunt again: “No,” when asked if the Vols could win that one.
As for a midseason stretch that includes Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma and Florida, Meyer gave this breakdown:
"I’m going to say they’ll split Arkansas-Kentucky. They’ll split Oklahoma-Florida. So, let’s give them one more win,” Meyer said. “That’s six.”
Looking ahead to the regular-season finale against Vanderbilt, Meyer expects Tennessee to be sitting at seven wins. While he predicted a win in that game, he offered praise for the Commodores.
“I’ll tell you what. That’s another one,” Meyer said. “They’ve got a heck of a coaching staff down there. That’s a rivalry game.”
The most significant offseason blow was losing Iamaleava. After two seasons with Tennessee where he threw 21 touchdowns and just five interceptions, Heupel will now turn to a new starting quarterback.
In April, reports surfaced of NIL-related contract issues for Iamaleava. He missed practice the following day, and Heupel announced they’d be moving in another direction. Ten days later, Iamaleava confirmed his transfer to UCLA.
Now, the Volunteers are left with a quarterback competition heading into fall. Joey Aguilar, formerly at Appalachian State, had been expected to transfer to UCLA but instead committed to Tennessee.
Jake Merklinger is still developing, though questions remain about whether he’s ready to start. The Vols also have four-star freshman George MacIntyre on the roster.
The offense will also have a new look beyond quarterback. Leading rusher Dylan Sampson is gone. Peyton Lewis and DeSean Bishop are expected to compete for the starting running back role.
At receiver and tight end, Chris Brazzell and Miles Kitselman return. Kitselman has been flagged by many analysts as a potential breakout candidate for the 2026 NFL Draft.
On the offensive line, Lance Heard will be relied on heavily to anchor a group filled with new faces.
Tennessee opens the 2025 season on Saturday, Aug. 30, against Syracuse at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The home opener is set for September 6 against East Tennessee State at Neyland Stadium.
Coach Heupel brings a strong resume into the new season. In four years with Tennessee, he has compiled a 37-15 record, including a 20-12 mark in SEC play and a 2–2 bowl record. Prior to arriving in Knoxville, Heupel went 28-8 in three seasons at UCF.
Despite recent success, the road ahead looks uncertain. With key departures, a new quarterback and a tough schedule, the Vols face plenty of challenges in 2025, and Urban Meyer isn’t alone in expecting a step back.
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