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Week 10 College Football Picks Against the Spread

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU Horned Frogs

Boy was I wrong about Texas A&M and Utah. Thought Vegas was off on those lines last weekend and, once again, the Wise Guys prove to be the best analysts in the game. (Amazing how that works.)

However, I've gone to the Houston, Bowling Green and Washington State wells of late and it's paid off multiple times now.

Last Week: 3-4

Year-to-date: 32-26

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LSU (+6.5) at Alabama

These two are always very evenly matched and very conservative against one another. This should be a low-scoring, hard-hitting defensive affair and some even believe LSU to be the better team. While I think Bama wins the game, it feels like an awfully large number to give when the underdog has as good a chance to win as the favorite. Six of the last nine have been one-score games. Prediction: LSU +6.5

Cal (+4.5) at Oregon

Cal was an early-season darling that started hot with some nice wins. Oregon struggled in the first half of the season. But both team's courses have reversed and it's the Ducks who enter this one playing well. Both offenses will score but Oregon will handle business at home. Overtime would work in the favorite's favor. Prediction: Oregon -4.5

TCU (-4.5) at Oklahoma St

The Pokes have been living a dream thus far, winning on extra downs and special teams blunders. And last week Oklahoma State's once sort-of-impressive defense gave up 642 yards and 50 points against Texas Tech. TCU isn't great on defense (yet) but also isn't as bad at it was to start the year. The Cowboys are out of their element here. Prediction: TCU -4.5

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FAU (+24) at W. Kentucky

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The Owls' defense has had some nice performances... against Charlotte and FIU. But they've also given up 29.4 points per game, which is good for a tie for 85th in the nation. Western Kentucky is rolling and can score on anyone. If you play them every time against inferior talent, you'll win more times than not this season. Prediction: Western Kentucky -24

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Stanford (-16) at Colorado

I went to the Cardinal well last weekend and lost. Which strangely makes me believe in a team that could have some extra motivation against the worst team in the Pac-12 South Division. David Shaw also knows that style points matter for the most underrated team in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Prediction: Stanford -16

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Temple (-12.5) at SMU

The Owls are a really good team and with Toledo's loss on Tuesday, they still control their own destiny when it comes to a New Year's Bowl. SMU will eventually be fine under Chad Morris but the Mustangs still can't stop anyone — like 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed (7.15) and yards per game (524.4). Prediction: Temple -12.5

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Navy (+8) at Memphis

Memphis is ranked 101st in the nation in total defense against the 84th-rated schedule (Sagarin). So that's terrible play against below-average competition (minus Ole Miss). Keenan Reynolds' bunch won't stop Paxton Lynch but don't be surprised by a team that's only loss came against Notre Dame on the road. Prediction: Navy +8

Best/Worst Records Against the Spread

Best Teams

Record

Worst Teams

Record

C. Michigan

7-1-1

Old Dominion

0-7-1

Southern Miss

7-2

UCF

1-8

Bowling Green

6-2

Fresno St

1-6-1

BYU

6-2

Arizona St

2-6

Florida

6-2

Auburn

2-6

Houston

6-2

Georgia

2-6

Notre Dame

6-2

Kansas

2-6

Stanford

6-2

Kentucky

2-6

Temple

6-2

Michigan St

2-6

Toledo

6-2

Missouri

2-6

Washington St

6-2

Oregon St

2-6

 

 

UMass

2-6