College Football Week 5 Preview: Score Predictions, Must-See Games and Impact Group of 5 Matchups

Week 5 of 2024 college football season marks the final Saturday of action in the month of September, which means the focus of the action shifts to conference play. A monster showdown in the SEC is on tap with Alabama hosting Georgia, while key games in the Big Ten (Illinois-Penn State), and the Big 12 (Oklahoma State-Kansas State) highlight the top matchups in Week 5. Also, Notre Dame hosts Louisville in a game that could loom large for CFB Playoff positioning for coach Marcus Freeman's squad.

In the Group of 5 conferences, realignment and expansion dominated the news throughout the week, but the focus returns to an intriguing slate of games on Saturday. Western Kentucky (Boston College) and Northern Illinois (NC State) aim to score upsets against ACC opponents, with Texas State-Sam Houston, Washington State-Boise State, Fresno State-UNLV, and South Florida-Tulane atop the list of must-see matchups.

Athlon Sports previews and predicts all of the top matchups and must-see games for Week 5: 

• See also: College Football Picks: Expert Predictions for Every Game in Week 5

College Football Week 5 previews and score predictions: the five biggest games of the week

1. Alabama vs. Georgia (-2)

Steven Lassan: Saturday night's game is the first of several high-profile showdowns in the SEC in the coming weeks. I'm interested to see how Georgia handles Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe and if new coach Kalen DeBoer has a few things offensively to unveil in this game. The Bulldogs' defense was banged up against Kentucky but seems likely to be closer to full strength on Saturday night. Although Alabama's defense has allowed only 26 points through three games, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and his receiving corps is the best test the Crimson Tide's secondary has faced so far in '24.
Prediction: Georgia 27, Alabama 24

Dan Lyons: This matchup is a game of the year candidate every time we get it, and that should be no different with Kalen DeBoer on the Crimson Tide sideline. Both of these teams have had some trouble against lesser opponents this year, Alabama pulled away to beat USF 42-16, while Georgia nearly dropped its game to Kentucky 13-12. Alabama followed their shaky performance up with absolute domination of Wisconsin on the road 42-10. Even so, it doesn’t feel like DeBoer has come close to showing everything he has in his bag, on offense. Jalen Milroe has been dominant, with 14 total touchdowns through three games and a 213.4 passer rating. Kentucky proved that Georgia’s elite defense has some vulnerabilities against the run, and the combination of Milroe, Jam Miller and Justice Haynes should be able to take advantage.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Georgia 21

2. Penn State vs. Illinois (+18)

Lassan: Illinois has been one of the biggest surprises of the ’24 season. Quarterback Luke Altmyer is much-improved in his second year in Champaign, and the defense is allowing only 12.5 points a game (so far) after losing standout Johnny Newton in the trenches. Despite the 4-0 start and wins over Kansas and Nebraska, the oddsmakers aren’t giving Illinois much of a shot here as a 18-point underdog. Penn State’s offense is on the right track under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and despite a sluggish showing against Bowling Green in Week 2, the defense is holding teams to 13 points a game. I could see Illinois covering here, but the Nittany Lions are the better all-around team right now.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Illinois 20

Lyons: Don’t be surprised if this is a close Big Ten battle. Outside of its shaky performance against Bowling Green, Penn State has looked the part of a top 10 program. Drew Allar has taken a step forward with new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and the rushing attack and defense as excellent, as expected. Illinois is no slouch, with solid wins over Kansas and Nebraska already. A night game in Happy Valley is a new level of challenge for them, though.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Illinois 20

3. Notre Dame vs. Louisville (+6.5)

Lassan: Intriguing is the best way to sum up this matchup. Notre Dame's rushing attack has recorded 632 yards over the last two games, but the offense is still struggling to connect on big plays downfield behind quarterback Riley Leonard. Louisville has quietly impressed with wins over Austin Peay, Jacksonville State, and Georgia Tech. Coach Jeff Brohm's team also ranks third in the ACC against the run, and quarterback Tyler Shough is the best signal-caller the standout Fighting Irish defense has faced in '24. 
Prediction: Notre Dame 27, Louisville 24 

Lyons: Notre Dame dropped its game to Northern Illinois and was caught sleepwalking early on against Miami (Ohio) before pulling away. It also won convincingly at Texas A&M and shellacked Purdue. Louisville has been more consistent, but this is by far the most difficult game the Cardinals will have played. Expect Marcus Freeman to have this team ready to play once again after a lackluster Week 4 game.
Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Louisville 21

4. Kansas State vs. Oklahoma State (+5)

Lassan: It’s only Week 5, so calling this an elimination game in the Big 12 title picture is probably an overstatement. However, after both teams lost in conference play last week, a loss would be a huge setback in a crowded conference race. Oklahoma State’s inability to run the ball (3.4 yards a carry) behind running back Ollie Gordon II remains a major issue for coach Mike Gundy’s squad. Also, the defense has allowed over 230 rushing yards to the two power conference (Arkansas and Utah) opponents it faced so far in ’24. That’s where K-State is at its best, so expect a heavy dose of quarterback Avery Johnson on the ground to go with DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards.
Prediction: Kansas State: 31, Oklahoma State 24

Lyons: Both teams need to rebound after disappointing Week 4 losses. Kansas State’s blowout loss at BYU was more jarring to watch, but the Wildcats only gave up 241 total yards to the Cougars in the 38-9 loss. Oklahoma State’s complete inability to get its best player, Ollie Gordon II, going this season is really disconcerting. 
Prediction: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma State 24

5. UCF vs. Colorado (+14)

Lassan: It's a game of contrasting styles. Behind quarterback Shedeur Sanders and a deep group of receivers, Colorado averages 41 pass attempts a game. UCF prefers the ground attack, as coach Gus Malzahn's squad attempts 55 rushes a contest. Considering the Buffaloes' issues against the run (150.8 yards a game allowed), this is a challenging matchup for Coach Prime's squad. UCF is the better team, but Colorado should be able to cover the spread in an entertaining game.
Prediction: UCF 38, Colorado 27

Lyons: The Knights have flown way under the radar so far this season, but it shouldn’t come as a real surprise that Gus Malzahn’s team can run the ball in a big way. RJ Harvey is one of the nation’s most productive running backs (448 yards, 8 touchdowns) and he accounts for less than 40% of this team’s rushing offense. Arkansas transfer KJ Jefferson hasn’t been asked to do too much, but has averaged a very strong 11 yards per attempt. Colorado can score, but it has yet to prove that it can keep any quality opponent from moving the ball unless Travis Hunter is directly involved in a play.
Prediction: UCF 38, Colorado 31

• See also: Heisman Trophy Rankings: Colorado’s Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders Rise After Dramatic Win

College Football Week 5: the next tier of Power 4 games

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky (+17.5)

Lassan: This is the first real test for Ole Miss. Can the Rebels’ high-powered offense stay on track against Kentucky’s standout defense?
Prediction: Ole Miss 41, Kentucky 17

Lyons: Kentucky’s a bit of a mystery, after getting blown out by South Carolina and then giving Georgia all it could handle in back-to-back weeks. Ole Miss may have the best offense in the country, and while it hasn’t faced an SEC opponent yet, the Wildcats don’t have the firepower to keep up.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Kentucky 19

Michigan State vs. Ohio State (-23.5)

Lassan: Michigan State is headed in the right direction under new coach Jonathan Smith, but Ohio State has too much on both sides of the ball. This is a good chance to view the Buckeyes in their toughest test so far in the '24 season.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Michigan State 13

Lyons: It’s high time for Ohio State to get a real test this season, after three games against the MAC and Sun Belt. Michigan State looks improved under Smith, but the offense is still a real work in progress. Ohio State should be a well-oiled machine.
Prediction: Ohio State 38, Michigan State 10

Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-2)

Lassan: Oklahoma leads the SEC in takeaways (12), while Auburn ranks at the top of the conference in giveaways (14). Both teams have major question marks on offense, but the Sooners have the better defense.
Prediction: Oklahoma 24, Auburn 20

Lyons: The battle of the ascendent backup quarterbacks. Oklahoma’s defense probably doesn’t get enough credit for holding Tennessee to 25 points and 345 yards, given the offensive struggles over the last few weeks. Brent Venables’ unit is the best know quantity of any group in this game, and should have a big edge on an Auburn team that can’t stop giving the ball away.
Prediction: Oklahoma 21, Auburn 17

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (+4, game in Arlington)

Lassan: Texas A&M has won 11 out of the last 12 in this series. Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green is the x-factor, but Texas A&M’s defense makes enough stops late to seal the victory.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Arkansas 27

Lyons: The Aggies have had some growing pains, but have gotten a real lift on offense with Marcel Reed stepping in at quarterback. The two teams mirror each other in many ways, especially in their love of running the ball, but A&M is safer with the ball and should have a talent advantage across the board.
Prediction: Texas A&M 24, Arkansas 21

USC vs. Wisconsin (+15.5)

Lassan: USC should be eager to rebound after the last-second loss to Michigan last Saturday. With quarterback Tyler Van Dyke sidelined for the rest of ’24, major concerns surround Wisconsin’s offense.
Prediction: USC 34, Wisconsin 17

Lyons: The Trojans have to be happy to return to L.A. for their first Big Ten home game after how last week’s game at Michigan turned out. Once upon a time, the Badgers would have posed a similar rushing threat to the Wolverines. Not this year’s team, which is anemic on offense.
Prediction: USC 31, Wisconsin 14

Rutgers vs. Washington (+2.5, game on Friday)

Lassan: Washington has a long trek to the East Coast for a new conference matchup against Rutgers in its first road game as a member of the Big Ten. Running back Kyle Monangai is one of the nation's most underrated players and should be able to find running room for the Scarlet Knights against a Washington defense allowing only 3.3 yards a carry so far in '24.
Prediction: Rutgers 27, Washington 24

Lyons: Washington comes to the East Coast for the first time as a Big Ten team, and faces the best Rutgers team in years. The Scarlet Knights are happy to slow this game down and pound the ball with Kyle Monangai, similar to the way Washington State scored an Apple Cup win a few weeks ago.
Prediction: Rutgers 24, Washington 20 

Miami vs. Virginia Tech (+19.5, game on Friday)

Lassan: This matchup had a ton of potential in the preseason. However, with Virginia Tech’s 2-2 start and Miami’s red-hot 4-0 record and offense behind quarterback Cam Ward, this one might not be close.
Prediction: Miami 34, Virginia Tech 17

Lyons: If the Heisman was given out in September, Cam Ward would probably be the winner. He’s leading an impressively balanced Miami offense, while Virginia Tech has been surprisingly shaky.
Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 14

Michigan vs. Minnesota (+9.5)

Lassan: The Golden Gophers gave up 272 rushing yards in last week’s loss to Iowa. That’s not a great formula against a Michigan team that seemed to find its identity against USC last Saturday.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Minnesota 10

Lyons: Michigan finally embraced its identity as a running juggernaut against USC last week. Minnesota didn’t fair well at all against Iowa, a team with a similar offensive identity, last week, and that game was at home.
Prediction: Michigan 34, Minnesota 10

Utah vs. Arizona (+10.5)

Lassan: The Noah Fifita-Tetairoa McMillan connection for Arizona is entertaining to watch, but Arizona’s struggling rush defense will have its hands full with Utah’s ground game (206.3 yards a game). Whether it’s Isaac Wilson or Cam Rising for the Utes under center, the rushing attack and standout defense will be too much for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Utah 34, Arizona 20

Lyons: It’s anyone’s guess whether this will be the week that Cameron Rising returns to Utah’s offense, although the team managed just fine against Oklahoma State with Isaac Wilson under center. Arizona blew out the Utes in their Pac-12 matchup in Tucson a year ago, but the Wildcats are yet to put together an inspiring performance this year after taking significant transfer portal losses.
Prediction: Utah 26, Arizona 24

UCLA vs. Oregon (-25.5)

Lassan: Oregon seems to be finding its rhythm as the season progresses. UCLA’s struggling offense and defense will be no match for the Ducks here.
Prediction: Oregon 45, UCLA 17

Lyons: Oregon finally put it all together against Oregon State ahead of its bye. The Bruins should be similarly overmatched, though their first half against LSU was promising.
Prediction: Oregon 43, UCLA 21

Baylor vs. BYU (+3.5)

Lassan: This is a tough game to project. Baylor could be a little flat after its overtime loss to Colorado, but it's also easy to see BYU having a letdown after last week's home win over Kansas State. Expect a close one, but I'll give a slight edge to coach Kalani Sitake's team.
Prediction: BYU 27, Baylor 24

Lyons: BYU had just about everything go right in its blowout win over Kansas State. Baylor repeatedly failed in late-game situations at Colorado. The Cougars are a bit more trustworthy in a coin flip game.
Prediction: BYU 29, Baylor 23

Indiana vs. Maryland (+7)

Lassan: Indiana is one of college football's most improved teams under new coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers have won all four of their games by at least 24 points, including a 42-13 victory over UCLA two weeks ago. Maryland gave up 363 passing yards to Michigan State in its only Big Ten contest so far this year, which is a bad sign against Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke (1,013 yards and eight touchdowns).
Prediction: Indiana 31, Maryland 27

Lyons: Curt Cignetti said he was going to win right away at Indiana, and he’s absolutely delivered so far. Kurtis Rourke should find success through the air against a leaky Terrapins pass defense, as long as the weather holds up.
Prediction: Indiana 30, Maryland 24