It was inevitable. A regression to the mean. Aka, a losing weekend.
I did get two of my three Letdown Alert picks correct but that struggling Florida State offense ruined me for the weekend.
I'm not shying away from the big games this weekend (except one) and am feeling like going big or going home. We’ve also now entered the “win one for the Gipper... because the other guy got fired (or suspended)” portion of the season as well.
Last Week: 2-3
Houston (-19.5) at Tulane
The Cougars are sixth in the nation in total offense (573.4 ypg) and scoring at 46.4 points per game. Tulane is 113th in scoring defense at 37.8 points per game allowed and 94th in the nation in total defense (419.8 ypg). Can you say one-sided? Prediction: Houston -19.5
Ole Miss (-10.5) at Memphis
There will be a lot of emotion and focus in this one for the Tigers but they are just too overmatched. Memphis is giving up 438.4 yards per game — 104th nationally — and allowed 46 points to Cincinnati and its backup quarterback (and 41 to Bowling Green). Look for the Rebels to flex some muscle. Prediction: Ole Miss -10.5
Florida (+8) at LSU
This is LSU's toughest test and the Tigers still haven't proven they can be a balanced offense. Treon Harris steps in for Will Grier but does so with plenty of starting experience. The Gators' defense travels and will show up and could win this game outright. Florida is 5-1 against the spread this year and "Win one for the Gipper" applies to the QB position too. Prediction: Florida +8
USC (+7) at Notre Dame
Don’t be surprised if the galvanized Trojans play really well this weekend. They are extremely talented and playing against arguably their biggest rival (who are also really banged up). Notre Dame is solid but this Trojan offense is still extremely efficient and led by an elite QB and quality running game. Prediction: USC +7
Michigan St (+7) at Michigan
Normally, I’m totally adverse to going with the herd mentality and everyone is picking Michigan. But the key matchup is the Spartans' banged-up O-Line and Michigan’s dominant and surging defensive line. The line of scrimmage is the most predictable area of the football field. And Michigan State is a nation's-worst 0-6 against the spread. Prediction: Michigan -7
Oregon St (+8) at Washington St
The Cougars are extremely unpredictable but are playing much better ball these days while Oregon State is reeling. The Beavers have been outscored 86-31 and has allowed 1,132 yards at an absurd 7.5 yards per play in the last two games. The Beavers are 1-4 against the spread this fall as well. Prediction: Washington State -8
West Virginia (+22.5) at Baylor
All of the Wise Guys seem to be all over WVU this weekend so I’m going to piggy back. I have no real analysis other than the Mountaineers are pretty solid and Baylor has yet to be challenged whatsoever. In fact, Baylor is out for revenge as well. I’m not sure why I’m doing this... (how's that for analysis). Prediction: West Virginia +22.5
Best/Worst Records Against the Spread