I also will mention that we are now past the halfway point of the season, so I will start increasing the size of my bets as I've been very good at managing my stake for both DFS and betting. Hopefully, you have too.
Teams on bye: Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, New York Jets
Here is where I give you the usual reminder, that in addition to my best bet, I will give you "safe picks" and "high leverage" picks. Those more or less equate to "cash game" picks and GPP picks for those familiar with what those are.
So who did I choose as a "safe bet" at RB? Read below to find out, but as usual, we start with our "best bet" of the week.
Week 10's Best Bets: Various Seattle Bets (Munich Game)
As usual, I like to choose a bet that is not on the main slate if possible. And this week it was an obvious call. The NFL will play its first-ever regular-season game in Germany on Sunday morning. And like most of the time when the NFL does something new, the books are giving us a great opportunity.
Tampa Bay is favored by 2.5 points and to that I simply say, "Why?!?!?"
Yes, the Buccaneers are technically the home team and if they were playing in Tampa, that line would make sense. But they are playing in Munich, which is nearly 5,000 miles away from Tampa. Not only will I be taking Seattle plus the points, but I am also giving serious consideration to taking Seattle outright at +130.
Tom Brady is passing for lots of yards, but only has 10 touchdowns so far this season. The Bucs' offensive line is suspect and Tampa's run game is 31st in DVOA.
Tampa Bay also is having issues on the defensive side of the ball as well. The Bucs are allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game (over 125 per game) so expect Kenneth Walker III to have a big game. Walker however is not the only one I like in this game, as I also like Geno Smith to toss at least two TDs at +106.
Smith has two TD passes in his last three games, but that's not exactly a new trend. He has a league-leading seven games with multiple TD passes. Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are healthy and bring a two-game scoring streak into this game. Given that the Bucs' secondary is allowing 1.6 receiving TDs a game, it's not hard to see their streak continuing. Furthermore, Smith loves to use his TEs in short-yardage situations. Don't be surprised to see a TE or two score in the red zone, as Tampa Bay has allowed 1.8 red zone TDs per game.
I've given you at least three Seattle bets to consider, I'd take at least one of them if I were you. Onto the DFS picks...
Safe Quarterback Week 10 Pick
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $7800, FD $8500)
I think my GPP bias is creeping in as I don't honestly love this play. But I'm going to ignore my bias as there is just too much evidence to ride with Mahomes this week.
First off, Mahomes is coming off his second 400-yard game in a row. He's averaging more than 2.5 touchdown passes a game. And that doesn't include his rushing TDs like the one he had last week against the Titans.
Mahomes is leading the NFL in both passing yards and TDs. What's interesting is that Mahomes is not doing it with the long ball, but tearing up secondaries with intermediate and shorter passes underneath. Why should we care? Because Jacksonville is 27th in DVOA against short passing.
Let's just say I don't see Jacksonville shutting down Mahomes and move on, shall we?
High-Leverage Quarterback Week 10 Pick
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (DK $5400, FD $7000)
Mahomes should be a good play, but I really like Lawrence in this game as well. We should have an old-fashioned shootout at Arrowhead this week. And the books seem to agree, putting the over/under for this game at 51 points, the highest for the week.
Kansas City is allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to quarterbacks per game and I'm betting on Lawrence to bolster that trend. Lawrence has 14 combined touchdowns on the season and is showing leaps of improvement in his second year. He has three QB1 finishes (QB4, QB8, QB12) in his last four games, with the exception being the game overseas. I'm betting on him putting up another QB1 game and at his price, that's some decent value.
Safe Running Back Week 10 Pick
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs. Houston Texans (DK $8600, FD $9500)
This is just too easy, Barkley's floor is the 50-plus rushing yards and a TD he had last week against Seattle. But his ceiling is at least 200 combined yards and three total touchdowns.
Think that's too much? It's not. Remember what Derrick Henry did to the Texans a couple of weeks ago when he ran for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns? And Barkley is even more of a weapon in the passing game for the Giants than Henry is. We could take out that Henry game and Houston would still be the most generous team when allowing fantasy points to opposing RBs.
This is not even an "if you have the salary, grab Barkley" recommendation. Grab Barkley and make the space elsewhere if necessary!
High-Leverage Running Back Week 10 Pick
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (DK $6400, FD $6800)
Everyone knows the Lions can be run on, but few are aware of just how poor the Bears' run defense is. They have allowed a league-worst 1.7 rushing TDs per game. But it's not just TDs. Chicago has allowed more than 241 fantasy points to RBs this year, the third-highest total.
Lions head coach Dan Campbell has already said he is hoping Swift can "handle a little bit more this week." Swift has been removed from the Week 10 injury report; when's the last time we can say that? It's all adding up to a much heavier load this week. Don't be surprised if this is the week we see Swift's breakout game we have all been waiting for.
Safe Wide Receiver Week 10 Pick
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (DK $5500, FD $6200)
Detroit is allowing more than 38 fantasy points to opposing WRs per game, the fourth-worst total in the league. If Mooney gets a third of that, that will split his last two weeks' totals. As Justin Fields continues his meteoric rise, so too is Mooney getting hot.
Mooney has 31 targets over his last four games and notched his first score of the season last week. I promise you that won't be his last one of the season.
High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 10 Pick
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (DK $4300, FD $5700)
I would be surprised if at least 30 percent of the entries don't have either Jaylen Waddle or Tyreek Hill this weekend. Those are not bad plays, but for your GPPs, how about the receiver on the other side? And even when folks choose a Browns receiver, they are likely to choose Amari Cooper. But I'm pivoting to DPJ.
Many folks will fade DPJ due to the fat zero sitting in his TD column. But the fact that he has more than 11.5 DKFPs each of the last three weeks without scoring a TD makes that average even more impressive.
I like Peoples-Jones to surprise some folks and maybe even score a TD this week.
Safe Tight End Week 10 Pick
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (DK $3400, FD $5300)
I can't believe I'm actually recommending two Chicago offensive players this week! Do I think Kmet will score two touchdowns this week and tack on another 58 total yards? No. Do I think he scores again this week and adds another 40 yards? Yes, I do. After all, Detroit is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to TEs. Haven't said this yet, but Kmet is actually a safe bet this week!
High-Leverage Tight End Week 10 Pick
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings (DK $3300, FD $5000)
I would be shocked if Knox is even 15 percent owned as I suspect his ownership percentage will be in the single digits. But I absolutely love the value Knox provides this week. With Josh Allen likely out, Knox might be one of the few Buffalo players who could see his value rise this week.
Minnesota is allowing 23.5 completions per game, eighth in the league. Knowing that, do you think Buffalo might look to move the ball with Case Keenum under center with a number of short passes? Yeah, me too.
Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 10 Pick
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (DK $4000, FD $5000)
The Cowboys are playing the death-spiraling Packers. 'Nuff said.
High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 10 Pick
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (DK $2700, FD $4000)
After playing both the Chiefs and the Eagles in the first five weeks, many were under the impression that this Arizona defense was bad. But as the schedule got less stormy, the Cardinals brought the thunder.
Since Week 6, the Cards are the fourth-best fantasy DST. Since then, they have two fumble recoveries and four picks. They also have 10 sacks. Arizona has been a little generous on the points allowed side, but the Rams seem to be struggling at putting points on the board this season. I knew the Rams were struggling, but even I was surprised to see that McVay's men are 29th in the league, with less than 17 points per game.
Given how cheap the Cardinals are, they are a very sneaky play I will have in quite a few of my GPP entries.
Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:
QB: not this week!
RB: Devin Singletary, Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR: Justin Watson, Rashid Shaheed
TE: Jordan Aikens, Will Dissly
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.