I did not have a great Week 1 when it came to my daily fantasy (DFS) entries. However, since I will be investing less this week, I am expecting a big bounce-back with my Week 2 DraftKings and FanDuel picks.
I did have a decent week with the sportsbook, but admittedly I fumbled last week's best bet. However, I am feeling much more confident about this week's pick.
As a reminder, in addition to the best best, I will give you "safe picks" and "high leverage" picks. Those more or less equate to "cash game" picks and GPP picks for those familiar with what those are.
Let's get right to the Week 2 picks.
This Week's Best Bet: Tom Brady 1.5+ Passing TDs (+100)
Not sure if by the time this article is published this bet will even be available. However, DraftKings had this special "happy hour" boost on Friday that was just too good to pass up. They had this prop set at -215, but boosted it to +100. If you can still make this bet, I would bet the maximum you can.
Brady has averaged more than two passing TDs a game his entire time in Tampa Bay and four of his last six years in New England. The last time Brady faced the Saints in the Superdome, all he did was throw for 375 yards and four touchdowns.
There was a prop for Thursday night's game I liked better, but this one has an even better payout for even higher odds, making it an obvious choice for my best bet of the week, As I said, if you can still make this bet, bet the maximum you can.
Safe Quarterback Week 2 Pick
Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $5500, FD $6800)
There will be a flood of entries with Ryan this week since he's priced below at least a dozen quarterbacks on both sites.
He threw for more than 350 yards last week and now gets to take on Jacksonville, who allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks in Week 1. It's not hard to see why DFS will be flocking Ryan's way.
High-Leverage Quarterback Week 2 Pick
Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers at New York Giants (DK $5300, FD $7000)
So much for the revenge game there, eh Baker?
But the Browns have a sneaky-good secondary, so I wouldn't too much weight into the fact that Mayfield couldn't beat the Browns. Many will overlook Mayfield this week. But I'll go on record as saying I can see Mayfield lighting up the New York secondary this Sunday.
Mayfield did have two touchdowns against Cleveland. Also, while the Giants looked like a contender against the Titans, much of that was Saquon Barkley-driven, not the defense. The Giants still gave up the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last week. And it's not like they were particularly stingy last year either. Mayfield is a perfect leverage play.
Safe Running Back Week 2 Pick
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants vs.Carolina Panthers (DK $7300, FD $8800)
Barkley is priced much more appropriately on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, so expect his ownership on DraftKings to be stooo-pid high. But he remains a phenomenal pick on both sites, especially going against a Carolina defense that got absolutely steamrolled last week by the Cleveland running game.
High-Leverage Running Back Week 2 Pick
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (DK $6700, FD $7800)
Nothing makes fantasy players more skittish than seeing tweets like this:
However, given that Fournette did get a number of limited practices in this week, I suspect he plays.
Fresh from a 127-yard rushing day, expect Fournette to continue to rack up the yardage. Recall that the Saints just allowed Cordarrelle Patterson to rack up 120 yards rushing against them. Think Fournette might do a little more than that?
Safe Wide Receiver Week 2 Pick
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK $9900, FD $9700)
Kupp had 13 catches for 128 yards and a touchdown last week. Against Buffalo. Let's just say that the Falcons' secondary is a little less talented than Buffalo's secondary. No WR has a higher floor this week than Kupp.
High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 2 Pick
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (DK $3600, FD $5000)
Pickens had a fairly quiet week last week, so much so that he's ridiculously underpriced. He still played 71 percent of the snaps last week and Cincinnati looks like a much better defense than New England so far this year.
New England gave up the eighth-most fantasy points to WRs last week. Yes, Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool might have higher shares. But should New England give up more than 42 fantasy points to WRs again, there will be plenty of points to go around and Pickens should do just fine.
Safe Tight End Week 2 Pick
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Arizona Cardinals (DK $6600, FD $6800)
Waller had a decent Week 1, snagging four of six targets for 79 yards. That was against the Chargers, who also did a pretty good job keeping the Kansas City Chiefs in check on TNF. That's important because those same Chiefs absolutely lit up the Cardinals, Waller's opponent in Week 1. I don't expect Waller to do what Travis Kelce (8 rec., 121 yds., TD) did against Arizona, but I would be shocked if he didn't have at least 75 yards again this week.
High-Leverage Tight End Week 2 Pick
Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins (DK $2500, FD $4100)
I already talked about Likely here in my start/sit article earlier this week.
Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 2 Pick
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (DK, $2200 FD $3900)
This salary was set on both sites before the news broke that Dak Prescott would be out 6-8 weeks. Take the easy salary savings and put them to good use elsewhere.
High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 2 Pick
Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins (DK $3600, FD $4500)
So I have this suspicion that those that don't go with Cincinnati will either spend up on teams like Denver (vs. Houston) or the Rams (vs. Atlanta) or go for far cheaper options, leaving some of those "second tier" defenses untouched. And there are still some attractive options when you get out of the top five, including Baltimore.
In addition to falling between the cracks of the more popular options, others will shy away from Baltimore due to their recent loss of DB Kyle Fuller. But look at what Tua Tagovailoa did against Baltimore last year when they were starting third-stringers: he went 8-for-13 for 158 yards and that's it. And we could add his rushing yards in that game to his passing yards and we would still get 158 yards. The Ravens had three sacks last week and I expect them to notch a similar number this week.
Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:
QB: Geno Smith, Daniel Jones
RB: Travis Etienne, Michael Carter, Jeff Wilson Jr.
WR: Greg Dortch, Jauan Jennings, Ashton Dulin
TE: Daniel Bellinger, Kyle Granson
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.