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NFL DFS: Week 4 Best Bets, High Leverage, and Safe Picks for DraftKings and FanDuel

Rashaad may be worth every Penny in DFS this week.

Like many of us, I am a little more concerned about what is happening with Hurricane Ian as it hits the southeastern part of the US than I am about my Week 4 best bets and daily fantasy (DFS) recommendations. However, you didn't come here for a weather report, so I will simply say my hopes and prayers are with those of you in the storm's path.

And my picks this year have been a bit of a disaster as well. But I am just as positive that sunnier days are ahead for my picks as they are for the state of Florida. I am not making light of the situation as I have family in the southern part of the country, but I am equally confident that they will come out unscathed and so too will my picks improve. 

This is not the first time I've started off poorly. But year after year, I rebound. And I am feeling confident about my picks this week. 

Week 4 Positional Rankings: QB I RB I WR I TE I DST I K I Flex

As a reminder, in addition to my best bet, I will give you "safe picks" and "high leverage" picks. Those more or less equate to "cash game" picks and GPP picks for those familiar with what those are.

Let's get right to the Week 4 picks.

This Week's Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Tampa Bay

I honestly don't understand this line. Take away Tampa Bay's home-field advantage here and the books are essentially pricing these teams as even. They're not.

They might have identical records, but that's about the only way they're equal. In fact, if you want to get cute, go with an alternate line and take the Chiefs at minus-1 or minus-2. Kansas City is by far the better team.

The networks are going to promote this as a contest of Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes. But it's no contest. The Chiefs have 857 passing yards, the Buccaneers have 673. Even on the rushing side, the Chiefs have 21 more yards than the Bucs. According to PFF, the Chiefs also have a huge advantage in explosive play rate (KC 2nd vs. TB 28th) as well as yards per play (KC 7th vs. TB 25th).

And Kansas City also has the advantage on defense. Yes, Kansas City has allowed 75 more yards to their opponents than Tampa Bay. But the Bucs have played Dallas, New Orleans, and Green Bay. The Chiefs have played the Cardinals, Chargers, and Colts. Which set of offenses would you rather your defense play?

I'm grabbing the Chiefs.

Safe Quarterback Week 4 Pick

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (DK $8400, FD $8900)

Allen ain't cheap, but if you can afford him, you have to play him. He's the second-best quarterback in fantasy right now and will likely overtake Lamar Jackson after their two teams go head-to-head on Sunday (Bills' defense is tougher than Ravens' right now). However, this game could easily become a shootout.

Baltimore is giving up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has had the luxury of playing against Joe Flacco and Mac Jones. And when the Ravens played Miami, Tua Tagovailoa had an absolute field day. And guess what, Allen is a far better quarterback than Tua.

High-Leverage Quarterback Week 4 Pick

Zach Wilson, New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $5300, FD $6500)

I really don't want to do this. This could backfire big time as Wilson comes back from injury and tosses three interceptions. But, I think ownership is going to be very spread out at quarterback this week with the top 20 options all having at least 3 percent ownership. But I suspect Wilson's ownership will be less than that, yet he has the potential to break the slate.

Pittsburgh has been pretty "meh" against opposing quarterbacks this year, especially when you consider their opponents have been a recovering Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, and Jacoby Brissett. 

Plus Wilson will finally be able to pilot the Jets' new set of offensive weapons including the emerging Garrett Wilson. This is a highly risky play, but definitely comes with a potentially high reward.

Safe Running Back Week 4 Pick

Jamaal Williams, Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (DK $6100, FD $7400)

Williams is the chalkiest of all the chalk picks this week, but I am locking him into every non-GPP lineup I have.

First off, he's extremely affordable, making him a great value. He could easily put up the kind of points that players $3K greater and more could put up. Secondly, he's been an absolute TD machine, having scored four in three weeks.

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In addition to him crushing it right now, he's also got a great matchup against Seattle at home in Detroit. Through three weeks Seattle is giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. No one likes that chalky flavor, but eat the chalk this week.

High-Leverage Running Back Week 4 Pick

Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (DK $4900, FD $6700)

Meanwhile, the opposing RB in the Lions-Seahawks game is anything but chalky. Penny has yet to score a touchdown, has just 32 carries all season, and has only been targeted four times. But I love Penny as a GPP play this week.

Seattle's first three games were against Atlanta, Denver, and San Francisco. All three of those teams have pretty stout run defenses, at least in the early going. All three are in the top 10 at preventing RB output. Detroit on the other hand? Not so much. The Lions have given up a league-worst 91.75 fantasy points to RBs. If Penny does nothing this week, I promise not to mention him in this space again. I have a feeling that won't be the case.

Related: Beat the Wavier Wire for Week 4

Safe Wide Receiver Week 4 Pick

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (DK $8400, FD $8700)

See Josh Allen.

High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 4 Pick

Nico Collins, Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers (DK $4000, FD $5300)

Lots of possibilities this week for high-leverage WR picks, but I'd be willing to bet Collins is barely owned. He hasn't had double-digit fantasy points yet. Plus, I think many will be scared away by the Chargers' defense. But the latter is a reason alone to take Collins.

The Chargers are the seventh-most generous defense when it comes to allowing WR fantasy points and they will now be without All-Everything Joey Bosa.

Safe Tight End Week 4 Pick

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (DK $7100, FD $8400)

Andrews is currently the top TE in fantasy football. It might have something to do with the fact that he has more touchdowns than any of his peers. But he also leads his position in receptions and receiving yards too. This game has the highest over/under of the week, tipping the scales at 51 total points. Andrews' ceiling this week might not be sky high, but his floor makes him a solid TE option in DFS.

High-Leverage Tight End Week 4 Pick

Jelani Woods, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (DK $2600, FD $4500)

After being invisible for the first two weeks, no tight end is coming in hotter after Woods reeled in two touchdowns this past Sunday. Tennessee's secondary has looked absolutely awful through the first three games. Grab Woods now before his price goes through the roof.

Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 4 Pick

Green Bay Packers vs. New England Patriots (DK, $4100, FD $5000)

Brian Hoyer is not a bad quarterback. He's probably one of the better backups in the league. But there's a reason he has never been a regular starter in back-to-back years. It's not like New England has lit up the scoreboard so far either. If you're not going to skimp on DST, Green Bay is the obvious play.

High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 4 Pick

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders (DK $3500, FD $4700)

The Packers are the easy play with the higher floor, but I really like the Cowboys this week. For one, they have allowed the eighth-fewest yards, but more impressively, they lead the league in sacks. The Commanders meanwhile have allowed the second-most sacks in the league. Throw in the fact this game is in Dallas and things could get very ugly for Washington very quickly.

Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:

QB: Matt Ryan, Cooper Rush

RB: Nyheim Hines, Michael Carter, Khalil Herbert

WR: Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Robbie Anderson

TE: Isaiah Likely, Tyler Conklin

— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.