Other than the players I recommended that are outside of the main slate, many of my recommendations for my NFL Week 8 Best Bets and daily fantasy (DFS) picks are going to be duplicates that I had in my start/sit articles. Fortunately, I had quite a few Buffalo Bills in those articles, so there is some space for non-duplicates in this article.
However, I do like to include a best bet that is not on the standard slate, so I'm going to feature one from the Bills/Packers game, but we'll get to that soon enough.
Teams on bye: Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers
First, the usual reminder, that in addition to my best bet, I will give you "safe picks" and "high leverage" picks. Those more or less equate to "cash game" picks and GPP picks for those familiar with what those are.
However, we start with our "best bet" of the week.
Week 8's Best Bet: Josh Allen 250+ Passing Yards and 2+ Passing TDs (+105)
I was actually surprised to see FanDuel offering this bet at plus odds. Yes, against Baltimore, Allen failed to hit either of these marks. But he has 15 passing TDs in his other fives games this year and no less than 297 passing yards in any of those five.
So slam dunk, right? Hold on a second.
Green Bay, perhaps surprisingly, has not been that horrible against the pass. The Packers have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (168.9) in the league this year. That number does jump up to 238 outside of Lambeau, but that is still under our mark. And the Pack's numbers follow a similar pattern for allowed TD passes as well.
But take a look at the teams Green Bay has played. After getting smacked down by Minnesota, the Packers faced well-known aerial specialist Justin Fields and a suddenly old Tom Brady. They followed that up with the two Jones (Mac and Daniel), then Zach Wilson, and most recently Tyler Heinicke. Not exactly a collection of golden arms. Allen will be the first top-10 passer Green Bay sees this season.
I would smash this bet. Five units might be a little too much, but I've already hit this for a unit and I plan to go back later and hit it again multiple times.
Onto this week's DFS picks...
Safe Quarterback Week 8 Pick
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $8300, FD $9200)
Hurts is coming off a 155-yard, 2-TD day against the Cowboys, who are a far better defense than the Steelers. The Eagles are a double-digit favorite this week for good reason. For one, the Eagles are coming off a bye and I expect Hurts to be even more comfortable this week, having his way with the Steelers' defense.
Pittsburgh is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks per game this season. I don't see that ranking improving after this weekend.
High-Leverage Quarterback Week 8 Pick
Davis Mills, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK $5200, FD $6500)
Mills paid off nicely last week, so we'll go back to the well with him again.
He's ridiculously cheap on both sites. But I feel like a broken record with how many times I've mentioned that the Tennessee secondary is awful. The Titans are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.
I know it sounds strange, but I'm expecting a big game from Mills again this week.
Safe Running Back Week 8 Pick
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys vs. Chicago Bears (DK $6100, FD $6300)
The Cowboys currently have the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate at 26 and are 9.5-point home favorites. The Bears meanwhile come off a short week after an emotional win on Monday night in Foxborough and I think we see a huge letdown from this week.
Of course, there's not a long way to fall. Chicago has allowed the third-most rushing attempts in the NFL this season, along with the sixth-most rushing yards, and fifth-most rushing touchdowns. Ya think the Cowboys might know that and try to exploit that?
Pollard should see at least 20-plus touches against Chicago, who I also will remind you just traded away Robert Quinn, one of their better defenders. Even with his ownership likely to reach peak levels, you cannot fade Pollard this week.
High-Leverage Running Back Week 8 Pick
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (DK $8700, FD $8500)
With his high salary, a matchup against the Rams, and his low output last week, most will skip right past CMac this week. But I'm happy to pay the price for him, especially on FanDuel, where he is a bit of a bargain. He is after all Christain McCaffrey!
Safe Wide Receiver Week 8 Pick
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $7700, FD $8200)
So many reasons to play A.J. Brown this week. For starters, he has a 30 percent target share. Secondly, in six games he has more than 500 receiving yards and is averaging more than five catches per game. Third, the Steelers are being scorched for a league-high 231 yards per game to wide receivers, plus the second-most deep receptions. Expect a big fay from Brown.
High-Leverage Wide Receiver Week 8 Pick
Chris Moore, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (DK $3400, FD $5200)
Nico Collins is out this week and Brandin Cooks might be joining him on the sideline. And I keep waffling between Moore and Phillip Dorsett. But Moore is averaging more fantasy points, so he's the choice.
But remember when I said the Titans' secondary is not very good? Well, they are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. No need to make this complicated. Moore should easily provide us with a profit at his low salary.
Safe Tight End Week 8 Pick
Irv Smith Jr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals (DK $3500, FD $5000)
TE is a little sketchy this week with Mark Andrews having played Thursday, Travis Kelce on bye, Darren Waller having health issues, and other popular cheaper options like Dawson Knox and Hayden Hurst playing games outside the main slate.
Therefore, I'll go with a pure matchup pick as Arizona has allowed the second-most receiving yards (nearly 72) per game to tight ends this season, as well as half-dozen touchdowns, which is the most in the league. Although the fact that Smith scored last week doesn't hurt either.
High-Leverage Tight End Week 8 Pick
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (DK $5700, FD $6900)
Remember once upon a time when Kittle was considered an elite Tier 1 tight end? Well, he's priced at the top of the TEs in this slate. That will drive down his ownership, but he could easily end up the far and away top TE play on this slate. Over Kittle's last two games he has 19 targets and is actually the top TE in half-PPR scoring in that span.
While Kittle and company are favored, this should be a tight game (1.5-point spread) and San Francisco could wind up playing from behind. Interestingly, the Rams' are the second-worst team in pressure rate in the NFL, so Kittle may not be needed to block as much as he has been in other games. More route running = more fantasy points. Don't be afraid to pay up for Kittle this week.
Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 8 Pick
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $3900 FD $4600)
Philadelphia is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points per game. The Eagles are second in interceptions behind only Buffalo. They are coming off a bye and hosting their cross-state rivals, who are averaging the third-fewest yards per game. Don't expect the team from the City of Brotherly Love to be too hospitable to their in-state neighbors.
High-Leverage Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 8 Pick
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (DK $2600, FD $3400)
I talked about Washington earlier in the week, but I will remind you that Sam Ehlinger is starting and he was sacked 25 times in 10 games the last time he started a football game. Yes, that was back when he was a Texas Longhorn, but the Commanders get after a QB far more than any NCAA team.
And it's not like the Colts' offensive line has been a wall either as Matt Ryan has been sacked 24 times already this season. I like paying up for Philadelphia and some of the other top defenses this week in cash games. But in GPPs, I'm happy to pivot to Washington at its low salary.
Other Cheap(er) Options I'm Considering In My GPP Entries:
QB: Malik Willis, P.J. Walker, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Tyler Allgeier, Eno Benjamin
WR: Phillip Dorsett, Laviska Shenault Jr., Tre'quan Smith
TE: Chris Myarick, Tanner Hudson
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.