Of course, there are far fewer options to choose from this week, which means it is far more important to get your picks right. If you drop the ball with one of your studs, the odds of winning go down geometrically this week versus other weeks. So be careful.
But I hope to maintain my DFS mojo, so I will do the same thing I did last week when I split the picks into AFC and NFC options. Whether you are playing single games or the whole Sunday slate, you can use the picks below. Like last week, I have suggested one pick for cash games (i.e. 50/50 and double ups), one pick for GPPs, and one player to consider fading. Good luck!
Safe Pick: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans at Chiefs (DK $8700, FD $9800)
You know how the announcers love to promote a matchup between "an unstoppable force and an immovable object?" Henry is that unstoppable force. The Kansas City defense, however, is anything but an immovable object. They gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs in the regular season.
The only reason not to play Henry this week is because the Titans might be forced to play catch-up with the Chiefs. I think the Titans can keep it close enough that Henry is the one chalk play you absolutely have to have in your lineup this week.
High Risk/Reward Pick: Mecole Hardman, WR, Chiefs vs. Titans (DK $3800, FD $4900)
Your cash game upside play is Jonnu Smith. But given that Smith scored a touchdown last game and Kansas City gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, I expect him to be highly owned. Hardman, however, not so much. Of course, you are not including Hardman in your Kansas City stack because of his floor. There was more stable footing for Eddie Murphy in "The Golden Child"...
But Hardman can turn nothing into six points very quickly. And he has done just that half a dozen times this season. That's not bad for a guy that has been targeted only 41 times! If Hardman doesn't score a touchdown, he's not returning value. But at these prices, I'm willing to take a chance in a GPP.
Fade: Sammy Watkins, WR, Chiefs at Titans (DK $4600, FD $5200)
Watkins is coming off of a very respectable PPR performance of 11 points last weekend. Don't be fooled.
This is what Watkins does. He's the black widow spider of fantasy football. He lures you in with his talent and oh-so-appealing upside. But next thing you know, you're trapped in his web of promise. Back in Week 1, he racked up 198 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Enticing, right? You know how many touchdowns he had the rest of the year? That's right, nada. Zip. Zilch. Avoid the trap.
Safe Pick: Davante Adams, WR, Packers at 49ers (DK $7900, FD $8300)
Adams might be the opposite of Sammy Watkins. He might have a couple of bad weeks and then go on an amazing run. We've seen him do it in the playoffs too. He has six playoff TDs, more than any other WR expected to play on Sunday.
Some might poo-poo his eight-catch, 160-yard day last week and say that's because it was against the Seahawks, not the 49ers. Yes, the 49ers do have a better defense than the Seahawks. But San Francisco does everything well. They are in the top 10 in fewest fantasy points scored by opposing quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends. Notice I didn't say wide receivers?
Don't expect a huge game from Adams like last week. But in at this point with so few options, you have to be happy if your WR goes for 80 yards and score. Adams is far and away the most likely WR to do so.
High Risk/Reward Pick: 49ers DST vs. Packers (DK $2900, FD $4600)
Did I convince you the 49ers can be beaten? And let's not forget the guy throwing the ball to Davante Adams is a Mr. Aaron Rodgers, aka "the comeback king." He didn't exactly earn that moniker by just handing the ball off. Do you really want to (gulp) bet against Rodgers?
Because yes, the 49ers were outside of the top 10 in terms of fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. They were 12th. The 49ers are the NFL's No. 1 passing defense this season, allowing just 169 yards per game. They also had 48 sacks in the regular season, five of those coming when they dominated Green Bay 37-8 at home in Week 12.
The 49ers' defense is not impenetrable. Remember that Saints game (48-46 San Francisco win in New Orleans)? But they can also lay the smackdown on some very good offenses as well. Against Tampa Bay, the DST put up 29 fantasy points at home vs. Seattle it was 22. You have to like the 49ers DST's chances this week and that's another reason why I don't like the next player.
Fade: Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers at 49ers (DK $3700, FD $5300)
You really can't fade George Kittle (who is dealing with ankle soreness) or Travis Kelce. And I've told you I like Jonnu Smith already. That leaves just one starting tight end, so he's the fade choice.
Yes, Graham is cheap, but there's a reason why. He has all of three touchdowns this year and just two games with more than 60 yards. Just. Not. Worth. It.
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.