Every week in the NFL is a "strange week." Last week was a particularly strange one. I'd love to tell you that things will return to "normal" this week, but you tell me what normal actually means. For the most part, my Week 10 daily fantasy (DFS) football picks are a little chalky, but read all the way through for a few surprises, whether you are playing cash or GPPs.
Speaking of GPP and cash games, I remind you that I will go through each position and list one "safe" pick and one "high-risk/high-reward" pick. The first is essentially a cash-game play and the second is a GPP play. I also will make sure that said player is priced proportionately about the same across DraftKings, FanDuel, and the other major sites. For those of you unfamiliar with DFS, do yourself a favor and look up cash games vs. GPPs. Or hit me up on Twitter (@MarkStrausberg) and I will explain it to you personally.
Teams on bye: Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston, New York Giants
Here are your Week 10 DFS picks.
Safe Quarterback Week 10 Pick
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (DK $7600, FD $8300)
Let's assume for the moment that Washington gives Tampa Bay more of a fight than the 9.5 points the bookmakers are giving Washington. If that's the case, then Brady's ceiling only goes up.
And what if Washington does continue to play like the current most generous team in the league when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks? Either way, we can bank on Brady throwing for at least two TDs and 250 yards. That's actually less than his average this season. He's averaging more than three TDs and 300 yards per game.
Brady is an expensive play this week, but his floor is well worth the price.
High Risk/Reward Quarterback Week 10 Pick
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons (DK $6900, FD $8100)
Prescott is not really a "high risk" pick this week, but I do love him for GPPs. My suspicion is that many will spend down at QB grabbing someone like Carson Wentz or even Matt Ryan from the other side in this projected high-scoring game. If not, they'll probably spend up and grab one of the top two options in either the aforementioned Brady or Josh Allen. That leaves Prescott as an attractive pivot.
Prescott is averaging more than 2.5 TDs and nearly 300 yards per game. Given that the Falcons are giving up more than 28 fantasy points to quarterbacks (third in the league), I think Prescott can easily get there.
And I love the number of stacking options we have in this game. Even if Prescott is not low-owned, the stacking options alone can make this a high-leverage play.
Safe Running Back Week 10 Pick
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (DK $8100, FD $9400)
The No. 1 fantasy option at RB right now against a team giving up the fifth-most rushing TDs?
High Risk/Reward Running Back Week 10 Pick
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles (DK $5000, FD $5800)
See my Week 10 Start/Sit advice for running backs/wide receivers.
Safe Wide Receiver Week 10 Pick
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (DK $6900, FD $7400)
With both Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski out for this week, plus Chris Godwin a game-time decision at best, Evans should see plenty of targets this Sunday. Evans is second in the NFL in receiving TDs, behind only Cooper Kupp. I'd bank on Evans scoring again this weekend and will likely improve on his 68 receiving yards per game as well.
High Risk/High Reward Wide Receiver Week 10 Pick
Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Football Team (DK $3300, FD $5100)
If Evans fails to dominate, it is because Tyler Johnson steps up and has a big game. Washington is giving up the second-most fantasy points to WRs per game with more than 43 PPR points per game. Even if Evans grabs 25 fantasy points, that leaves easily double-digit points for Johnson. And at his price, he will certainly hit value.
It's not like Brady and Johnson don't have a connection.
And if the Johnson pick is too "chalky" for you, consider Carolina's Terrace Marshall Jr. Christian McCaffrey is back, which should open up some of the passing lanes. We also know that Sam Darnold will not be under center for the Panthers. Call this a gut call if you want, but I think Marshall can be a very sneaky play.
Safe Tight End Week 10 Pick
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (DK $5800, FD $6900)
Pitts is such an obvious play on the main slate with Mark Andrews having played Thursday, and both Travis Kelce and Darren Waller playing on Sunday night. I love Pitts on the opposite side of a Dak Prescott stack in a game with an over/under of nearly 55 points. That's the highest of the week. Pitts is averaging eight targets over his last five games. I'd expect him to be heavily involved again this week.
High Risk/High Reward Tight End Week 10 Pick
Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (DK $3500, FD $5100)
I'm likely playing Pitts in most of my GPPs too that's how much I like him. There are a number of other options I like at TE as well (Dawson Knox, Noah Fant, Pat Friermuth amongst others) but they all feel a little "chalky" to me. Maybe Arnold is too chalky? But he's a solid contrarian pick given the anti-Jacksonville sentiment out there, especially with Indy allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 10 Pick
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (DK $4000, FD $5000)
I know, the darling sensation that is Mike White is playing. I am not worried. I'm still taking the chalk pick.
High Risk/Reward Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 10 Pick
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $2300, FD $3100)
Want a bold pick? Here it is.
As I said earlier in the week, this is the kind of game that Mike Tomlin seems to lose every year. And so far, I really like what I have seen from Detroit head coach Dan Campbell. I can't shake the feeling that Campbell will at least keep this game close.
I will remind you that the Lions also have the eighth-highest "QB Hurries" rate and against Ben Roethlisberger, who has one of the longest release times, I think some good things could happen for Detroit.
Things could definitely go sideways with this pick obviously. But this is the kind of pick that takes down GPPs. I know many of you will quickly dismiss it. Don't.
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.