The Week 16 daily fantasy football (DFS) picks are devoted to the main slate. Yes, I know that the three-game slate on Saturday will be a popular one. And I am not one to leave my millions of fans bereft of worthwhile knowledge, so let's dive into the Week 16 Saturday slate briefly.
First off, fade the Houston-Tampa Bay game at extreme risk. With a spread of just three and an over/under of 50, that game could be one of the biggest shootouts of the week. The 49ers and Rams might be the hardest contest of the day to forecast game flow. You tell me which Rams defense is going to show up. Is it the one that held Seattle to 12 points two weeks ago? Or is the one that Dallas steamrolled for 475 yards last week? Meanwhile, expect defense to be the name of the game in Bills vs. Patriots as neither team might hit 21 points. There is absolutely value to be pulled from the AFC East battle, but that game is better reserved for GPP plays.
But I think my favorite GPP play on the Saturday slate is the extremely deep pick of the Houston Texans' DeAndre Carter. The temptation might be to go with Keke Coutee. However, with both Will Fuller and Kenny Stills expected to play, expect Coutee to be inactive since he doesn't play on special teams. Carter will have an extremely low ownership rate and enable me to fit in more of the high-priced studs I can't fathom fading. On the flip side, expect George Kittle to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate. He's a force to be reckoned with, and should be a lock for any cash-game lineup.
Of course, he could get injured and those that pivot elsewhere could be laughing all the way to the bank. But banks aren't open on Sunday, so here are some players worth taking some time to consider.
Week 16 DFS Picks
Safe QB: Russell Wilson vs. Cardinals (DK $7000, FD $8300)
First off, my apologies for last week. I've steered you right often this year, but I definitely led you astray with Baker Mayfield last week. Let me right the ship however and recommend Wilson. After a dud two weeks ago, Wilson rebounded with 286 passing yards and two touchdowns. Nobody is giving up more fantasy points to quarterbacks than Arizona. Unlike Mayfield, Wilson has earned our trust. Set it and forget it. After all, this is the way...
High Risk/Reward QB: Drew Lock vs. Lions (DK $5600, FD $7300)
I knew the regression was coming with Lock, I just wasn't sure when. Unfortunately, it hit last week. I'm not saying I'm glad it did, but now we can move forward. And I'm saddling up this Bronco again. They're not as dreadful as the Cardinals, but the Lions are the NFL's second-worst passing defense, giving up more than 288 yards per game. Back at home against a team just playing out the string; I think Lock gets back on track this week.
Safe RB: Chris Carson vs. Cardinals (DK: $8500, FD: $8200)
Yes, the Cardinals have a better run defense than a pass defense. It's part of the reason why Carson's ceiling this weekend is lower than others. But I'm counting on 100-plus yards and a touchdown from Carson. At home, in a "can't afford to lose" game? Take the easy points.
High Risk/Reward RB: Alvin Kamara at Titans (DK: $7500, FD: $7200)
Be forewarned: Planning to ask a seasonal fantasy football owner how they feel about having spent a first-round pick on Kamara? You had best be prepared to step back. Because the venom will fly. He has yet to give his owners a 100-yard rushing day. Even a 100-combined-yards-day has gone missing the last three weeks. And touchdowns? Wait, that can't be right... Saints alive, it is! Kamara has all of two touchdowns this year and not a single one since September. Yikes. But wouldn't it be just like Sean Payton after the huge night from Drew Brees on Monday to feed Kamara this Sunday?
Safe WR: DK Metcalf vs. Cardinals (DK: $5900, FD: $6300)
I've already told you I like Russell Wilson and that the Cardinals' secondary is not so great. I like Tyler Lockett here as well, but I think they both can have huge days. Between the two sites, Metcalf is $1500 is less. Give me the savings and Metcalf.
High Risk/Reward WR: Larry Fitzgerald at Seahawks (DK: $4700, FD: $5700)
Of course with Seattle beating up the Arizona defense, the Arizona offense will have no choice but to pass. And I think Larry Legend has one more big game this year in him, thus sending dynasty owners into a vortex of ambivalence. The Seattle secondary is nothing special this year as the Seahawks are giving up the fourth-most passing yards. They are however tied for seventh-fewest TD catches allowed, but I think Fitz takes it to the house one more time.
Safe TE: Austin Hooper vs. Jaguars (DK: $4400, FD: $6000)
The Jaguars are toast. I've said it before, no TE has a higher floor than Hooper. Hooper easily hits his floor this week and then some.
High Risk/Reward TE: Jason Witten at Eagles (DK: $4000, FD: $5800)
On one hand, Philadelphia is giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. On the other hand, Jason Witten is eighth in fantasy points at the position. And on the third hand, there's this:
Obviously Witten is looking forward to Sunday's game. Call this one a gut feeling, but I think he has a decent game this weekend.
Safe DST: Ravens at Browns (DK: $4000, FD: $4500)
Call this a gut feeling too, but something tells me the Ravens defense gets revenge for one of their worst days earlier this season.
High Risk/Reward DST: Jets vs. Steelers (DK: $3000, FD: $3600)
The Jets are actually the 13th-best defense in fantasy football. The Steelers' offense doesn't impress me these days. 'Nuff said.
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.
(Top photo by Rod Mar, courtesy of seahawks.com)