Fantasy Football Value Picks, Bargains and Sleepers for Week 12

Finding the best bargains in daily/weekly fantasy football

We all would like to budget wisely, and it's no different in daily or weekly fantasy football.

 

If you are playing in a salary-capped game at either FanDuel or DraftKings, here are a few value plays and bargains at the quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end positions for Week 11 of the NFL season that should allow you to hold on to some of that money to spend on the big-name studs.

 

Only two more weeks of byes. We lose four teams this week, two the next and then you have a full slate the rest of the way. Gone from your lineups this week are players from Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, and the New York Jets.

 

VALUE PLAYS (salaries in parenthesis are that of FanDuel's and DraftKings)

 

QUARTERBACKS

1.) Zach Mettenberger, Tennessee vs. Philadelphia ($6500/5300)

The Eagles are the second-friendliest team to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. They have allowed four starters in that span to average 295 yards per game with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Mettenberger has been relatively efficient for a rookie, completing 63 percent of his passes for 247 yards per game, including three scores and three interceptions in his three starts.

 

2.) Blake Bortles, Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis ($7700/5600)

Bortles had his touchdown-a-game streak stopped two weeks ago against Dallas, but draws an Indianapolis team that has allowed 10 over the last four games. The Colts are surrendering 316 yards per game through the air with just two interceptions during this four-game run. Bortles had thrown for five TDs and seven interceptions in the four games leading up to the Dallas blanking. Bank on Bortles playing catchup and having at least another 20-point day like he did against Indy in Week 3 (223 yards, two TDs, two interceptions).

 

3.) Josh McNown, Tampa Bay vs. Chicago ($7500/6600)

The Bears have allowed the most TD passes over the last five weeks (four games) by surrendering 14 against just one interception. The 282.5 passing yards per game given up in this span is not too shabby either. McNown takes on his former team having thrown for 589 yards, four scores, and two interceptions in his last two starts.

 

RUNNING BACKS

1.) Tre Mason, St. Louis vs. San Diego ($5600/4200)

Mason has been a bell cow during his three starts, carrying 62 times the last three weeks. That is fourth most amongst RBs during that span. He has turned it into 75 yards per game on the ground. Mason draws a San Diego team this week that has faced two 20-carry backs this season - both coming in the last four games - and allowed 204 yards, a rushing touchdown, and 41 yards receiving to them.

 

2.) Bishop Sankey, Tennessee vs. Philadelphia ($5800/4900)

Like their passing defense, the Eagles' run defense has been pretty generous the last five weeks. Philadelphia is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game at 79.3 yards on the ground with three scores and 49 yards through the air with two scores in its last four games. Sankey has received the bulk of the carries the last six games, and has also added eight catches for 51 yards over the last three games. We are still waiting on the breakout game from the first running back selected in the most recent draft, and perhaps this is the week for it to happen.

 

3.) Jonas Gray, New England vs. Detroit ($6700/5600)

He is most certainly the hottest free agent pick up in most fantasy leagues this week after he torched Indianapolis for 199 yards and four scores. His 38 carries were ridiculous and old school, but he had averaged 14.5 touches on the ground in the two games prior. So Gray is there to be the workhorse. A repeat is certainly unlikely and Detroit is tough, but three of the five backs to hit the teens in rushing attempts against the Lions this season have scored TDs, and the group averaged 53.8 YPG.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

1.) Kenny Britt, St. Louis vs. San Diego ($6400/4600)

Do we believe in the Shaun Hill-to-Kenny Britt connection or was it a one-week wonder? The seven targets Britt received on his way to a 4-128-1 day was the third time he has received at least six targets in a game this season. The other two came in Weeks 3 and 5 when he turned 13 targets into eight catches for 137 yards and a score. The Chargers have allowed six receivers to hit at least that 68-yard average Britt had in his last two-game stretch. Four of those six have scored double-digit fantasy points.

 

2.) Kendall Wright, Tennessee vs. Philadelphia ($6400/4900)

Here are those Eagles again. If they are allowing solid passing days they must be allowing solid receiving days. Like they are to QBs over the last five weeks, Philadelphia is second friendliest to receivers in that span. Over the four games, the Eagles have seen five receivers go over 100 yards (average of 126.4 ypg) with four of them catching a TD. Wright is coming off a season-high 70 yards and went over eight targets for the fifth time this season.

 

3.) DeAndre Hopkins, Houston vs. Cincinnati ($6800/5000)

Hopkins’ consistent run did not slow much with the addition of Ryan Mallett under center for the Texans. He received at least eight targets for the fourth straight game. Hopkins is the eighth-most targeted receiver over the last five weeks (of those who have played four games). He has turned those 39 targets into 398 yards receiving and a score. Ride the hot hand.

 

TIGHT ENDS

1.) Charles Clay, Miami vs. Denver ($5200/4000)

Clay leads tight ends over the last five weeks with 12 red-zone targets, double what the next closest player has. He has turned that into one touchdown, and is averaging 4.4 catches for 40 yards in that span. The Broncos have allowed five TDs to the position over the last six games, and four TEs hit at least 54 receiving yards.

 

2.) Larry Donnell, New York Giants vs. Dallas ($5500/3900)

Streaking down the middle of the field, Donnell caught his sixth touchdown of the season in Week 11. He continues to be a popular target for Eli Manning. Donnell has 27 targets over the last four games. The Cowboys are the ninth friendliest to tight ends over the last five weeks (four games).

 

3.) Jacob Tamme, Denver vs. Miami ($5300/3400)

If Julius Thomas cannot go due to his ankle sprain, Tamme will get the bulk of the tight end work. Thomas is listed as day-to-day and sat out Wednesday's practice. Tamme had a season-high 10 targets last week, a number he had not seen since 2012. He got double-digit targets three games that season, averaging six catches and 56.6 yards. No team has thrown more TDs to the tight end than Denver (14). While that is mostly Thomas' supreme talent it also is a testament to looking for the position in the red zone.

 

@Corby_Yarbrough on Twitter

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