Opening Day of the 2015 MLB season is less than a month away, which means fantasy baseball is just around the corner. For some leagues, drafts have already begun or will soon begin and Athlon Sports is here to help.
Besides providing our comprehensive Fantasy Baseball Big Board, we also have our positional rankings, courtesy of Bruce Herman. These are pulled straight from this year’s 2015 MLB Preview magazine, which is available at newsstands everywhere and for purchase online.
A: FRANCHISE PLAYER — You need one to compete, two to win, three to dominate.
B: CAREER YEAR — Veteran with a strong possibility of delivering his best season.
C: SLEEPER — Could be a great acquisition at a price or draft slot below his true value.
D: ROADBLOCKED — Rank has been lowered because there is no current opportunity to play regularly.
E: DECLINER — Expect moderately to significantly worse stats than in 2014.
F: INJURY RISK — Has had a recent injury that could affect performance.
G: INVESTOR’S SPECIAL — Top prospect whose immediate impact may be minimal.
Batting stats are expressed AVG-HR-RBI-R-SB. Positional eligibility for specific players may vary depending on league, as well as other Web sites and resources.
2015 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Basemen
1. Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks (A,F)
A broken hand stifled Goldschmidt’s MVP run, but he should be fine. Between June 1, 2012 and Aug. 1, 2014, no player matched his array of totals in the five fantasy categories, and only one (Mike Trout) equaled him in four.
2. Miguel Cabrera, Tigers (A,F)
Cabrera’s body of work speaks for itself, but for the first time it comes with an asterisk: ankle surgery. He soldiered through much of 2014 in pain, posting a .313-25-109-101-1 line that pales only when compared to his decade-long average of .324-35-120-102-4.
3. Freddie Freeman, Braves (B)
The bust-out season we envisioned for Freeman never materialized. Still, he led the majors in such arcane but instructive stats as line drive percentage (31.0), times on base (273) and foul balls (583). His next-level prospects remain bright.
4. Jose Abreu, White Sox
The White Sox called in the cavalry (Adam LaRoche, Melky Cabrera) to provide some cover for Abreu, whose one-man show in 2014 made him the first rookie ever to rank among a league’s top five in all the triple crown stats (.317-36-107).
5. Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
Rizzo, just 25, up-shifted his ranks among first basemen from 21st to seventh in AVG (.286) and from ninth to third in HRs (32). A combination of 22 missed games and the ineptitude around him are factors that may dissipate in 2015, lifting him out of pedestrian RBI-land.
6. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
His ranges of runs (69 to 108), HRs (18 to 40) and AVG (.276 to .338) can be gonzo, but he’s been fused to a tight radius just above 100 RBIs for eight years now. A precipitous decline in walk rate over the years has taken its toll overall, but he sure can de-duck the pond.
7. Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays
Extended his streak of big seasons to the magic number of three, so we’re officially on board with the out-of-nowhere career revival. Only Cabrera has hit more HRs in that span (113 to 112), and his 4.9 ABs/RBI led baseball last year.
8. Joey Votto, Reds (F)
Votto raises love-hate hackles for rotisserians who detect triple crown potential defused by a passive approach. So it’s a matter if you see the glass half-full (one of three players to hit .310 with 150 HRs from 2008-13) or half-empty (a mere 57 RBIs per 550 PAs since 2012).
9. Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals (F)
The long-time third base stalwart’s status in the fantasy environment has been clouded by injuries and position fluidity. He should set up camp at the other corner this year. High-impact 2009-10 OPS of .893 eroded to medium-impact .809 from 2011-14.
10. Albert Pujols, Angels
Pujols is the only player in history to lead the majors in all triple crown stats over two different 10-year spans, but he’s in the wind-down phase. His .272-28-105-89-5 last year is a representative snapshot of where he’s at.
11. Carlos Santana, Indians (B)
Santana was atrocious for 57 games last year (.175-7-22), then finished .264-20-63 in his last 95. That postponed, but has not precluded, the breakout he’s been teetering on. On one hand, he’s a .248 career hitter with an RBI peak of 85; on the other, he’s a high-homer, high-walk, 29-year-old switch-hitter in a favorable park.
12. Prince Fielder, Rangers (F)
Including the playoffs, Fielder (who once had 141 RBIs in a season) has driven in 16 runs in his last 227 PAs. That’s Ruben Tejada production. And now he’s coming off neck surgery. Prince has built up enough equity to keep him in Tier 2, but just barely.
13. Eric Hosmer, Royals (B)
Hosmer’s season was uneven and, on the whole, disappointing, although he averted a total disaster with a few late surges. Although his .270-9-58-54-4 was unacceptable for a first baseman, his swing looked back in synch during the playoffs.
14. Brandon Belt, Giants (B)
Belt was knocked off course by a thumb injury and a concussion, but his power continued to unfold, as his 12 HRs in 61 games projected to 30 over 150. He’s Hosmer with less of a track record, and with just as much potential to bust out.
15. Chris Davis, Orioles
Davis “Crushed” little beyond fantasy team prospects in 2014. The captain of the I’m Too Stubborn To Adjust To The Shift Club paid a steep price: a 90-point AVG decay, HRs cut in half, a 48% RBI decline and outs in 70% of his PAs.
16. Justin Morneau, Rockies
17. Matt Adams, Cardinals
18. Ryan Howard, Phillies
19. Lucas Duda, Mets
20. Joe Mauer, Twins
21. James Loney, Rays
22. Pedro Alvarez, Pirates (F)
23. Mark Teixeira, Yankees
24. Adam Lind, Brewers
25. Mike Morse, Marlins
26. Logan Morrison, Mariners (C)
27. Jon Singleton, Astros
28. Mike Napoli, Red Sox
29. Yonder Alonso, Padres (C, F)
30. Ike Davis, A’s
31. Garrett Jones, Yankees
32. Mark Reynolds, Cardinals (E)
33. Darin Ruf, Phillies
34. Gaby Sanchez, Free Agent (E)
35. Travis Ishikawa, Giants
36. Nate Freiman, A’s
37. Justin Smoak, Blue Jays
38. J.P. Arencibia, Free Agent
39. Kyle Parker, Rockies (G)
40. Chris Colabello, Blue Jays