Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Closers

Author:
Braden Gall
Mar 2, 2012 6:59 AM EST

In this story:

— by Braden Gall (@BradenGall on twitter), published on Mar. 2, 2012

Who are the biggest sleepers and busts to watch out for on the fantasy diamond?

Using Athlon Sports’ consensus Top 150 as the barometer, here are some potential sleepers to keep an eye on and some possible busts to be wary of when it comes to drafting your fantasy teams this season.

Be sure to check out the Athlon Sports Fantasy Closer Grid as we keep fantasy GMs updated all season long.

Athlon Sports Fantasy Rankings:Big Board | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Sleepers:

Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
If you are looking for the next ace closer on a team that will win loads of game and will be available after the tenth round, then Walden is your guy. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound righty excelled in his first full season in L.A. He should be able to maintain his 10.0 K/9 rate and will be much better suited to withstand a full season this year — he struggled in the second half last season. Look for a similar line with improved walk and hit rates from a guy with loads of upside.

Sergio Santos, Toronto Blue Jays
The talent is obvious as the former first round pick has all the tools needed to be an excellent closer. He improved his WHIP from 1.53 to 1.11 in only his second major league season and finished last year with a 30-save season under his belt. His 13.1 strikeout rate likely won’t be replicated but a 10-11 ratio is within reach. The biggest stat to cling to is his improved hit rate — it dropped from 9.2 H/9 to 5.8 H/9. He could be the 15-18th closer taken, so his value is through the roof.

Addison Reed, Chicago White Sox
Why else would you let a 28-year old closer who is under contract for six years go? That is what the Sox did with Santos in favor of Matt Thornton and Addison Reed. Thornton will likely begin the season as the closer, but Reed’s make-up and K-rate mean he is tabbed as the future. He struck out 155 batters in 108.1 minor league innings and was effective once called up last season. Look for more from the 23-year old righty.

Javy Guerra, Los Angeles Dodgers
The youngster proved last season in short order that he belonged in the majors. He converted 21 of his 23 save chances and posted a nasty set of ratios: 2.31 and 1.18. Kenley Jansen will be competing for the closer’s role and could be considered a solid sleeper as well, so keep an eye on this battle and be ready to snag the other one. And in holds leagues, drafting both isn’t a bad maneuver.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Closer Busts:

Heath Bell, Miami Marlins
The big fella has always carried a little extra weight and it might have caught up with in 2011. He was never fully healthy and that could have led to his 34% reduction in strikeout rate (11.1 to 7.3 K/9). Additionally, with a career ERA of 3.06, a return to his 1.93 of 2010 seems highly unlikely. The move away from PETCO will only hurt his numbers as well.

Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals
Since taking over as the full-time closer (four years), Soria posted career lows in ERA, saves and strikeouts. Can the Royals ninth inning man rebound or will his slide continue? The best bet is a little bit of both. He was erratic and lost his job last season for a short period and with Aaron Crow and big Jonathan Broxton waiting in the wings, the leash will be rather short for Soria. And the fact remains, whether he returns to form or not, he will likely be traded to become a quality setup man for a contender.

J.J. Putz, Arizona Diamondbacks
Closers are easily the most volatile fantasy commodities and Putz exemplifies this fact. He has three seasons of 36 saves and five season of 15 saves or fewer. He has two seasons with an ERA below 2.80 and four above 3.60. While he has strung two solid seasons together in a row, I am not willing to pay much at all for that kind of headache.

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