— by Mark Ross, published on Feb. 29, 2012
Who are the biggest sleepers and busts to watch out for on the fantasy diamond?
Using Athlon Sports’ consensus Top 150 as the barometer, here are some potential sleepers to keep an eye on and some possible busts to be wary of when it comes to drafting your fantasy teams this season.
Note: Outfield includes all players who have OF eligibility. Ranking in the Top 150 is listed, if applicable. UR means player was not ranked in the Top 150.
Athlon Sports Fantasy Rankings:Big Board | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Sleepers:
Michael Cuddyer, COL, 1B/2B/OF (No. 120 overall)
Cuddyer, who also has eligibility at two different infield positions, put together a pretty solid 2011 season (.284, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 11 SB) and his numbers should get a boost this season as he moves from the Twins to the Rockies. Besides the home park advantage (switching from Target Field to Coors Field), the Rockies' line up packs more offensive punch than the Twins. Colorado finished tied for seventh in the majors in runs last season, while Minnesota was 25th.
Andre Ethier, LAD, OF (No. 150 overall)
Ethier was bothered by knee pain throughout much of last season and ended up having surgery on his right knee last September. If the knee was the reason behind the precipitous drop in his production (11 HR, 62 RBI) in 2011, he could be a late-round steal. Three seasons ago, Ethier posted a 31-106 season, along with 92 runs scored and 42 doubles.
Corey Hart, MIL, OF (No. 93 overall)
Hart missed the first three weeks of the season, but he still managed to finish it with 26 home runs, 80 runs scored and a .285 average. In the second half alone he posted a .297-16-37 line with 49 runs scored. Hart, who spent most of last season batting leadoff, could move down in the order and get the chance to drive in more runs, especially with Prince Fielder now in Detroit. If that happens, a repeat of his 2010 campaign (.283-31-102) is not out of the question.
Adam Jones, BAL, OF (No. 92 overall)
In 2011, Jones posted the best all-around season of his short career, batting .280 with career highs in home runs (25), RBIs (83) doubles (26) and stolen bases (12). If he can cut down on his strikeouts (113) and find ways to get on base more (.319 OBP), his numbers, especially runs scored (68) will get better. Improved plate discipline combined with Jones’ talent and tools, could very well translate to a .280-30-100 season with some speed thrown in for good measure.
Kendrys Morales, LAA, 1B/OF (UR)
If healthy, and that’s a rather large “if,” Morales could put up huge numbers in an Angels lineup that now includes Albert Pujols. In 2009, Morales broke out in a big way with a .306-34-108 season and was on pace for similar numbers in 2010 (.290-11-39 in 51 games) before breaking his ankle celebrating a walk-off home run. He hasn’t played in a game since May 29, 2010, but if he’s able to prove he’s ready during spring training, he could pick up where he left off almost two years ago.
Logan Morrison, MIA, OF (No. 142 overall)
Morrison gets more attention off the field, thanks in large part to his active Twitter account, than on it, but this may be the season that changes that. Morrison hit 23 home runs and drove in 72 in 123 games last season. A career .290 hitter in the minors, Morrison could be in for a huge 2012 if he can improve upon his .247 batting average from 2011.
2012 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Busts:
Michael Bourn, ATL, OF (No. 65 overall)
In the case of Bourn, it’s all about over-paying or over-drafting for one or two categories. Bourn will steal bases, as he has averaged 58 swipes the past three seasons, and score runs (94 in 2011), but don’t expect him to do much more. He has 13 career home runs in six seasons and his .294 batting average in 2011 was 31 points higher than his career .263 mark prior to that. Put the whole package together and I don’t see a player you necessarily want to draft in the seventh round.
Nelson Cruz, TEX, OF (No. 54 overall)
Will Cruz ever play a full season? That’s the question fantasy owners have been asking for the past three years as the Rangers’ slugger has tantalized with his power (33 home runs in 2009, 29 in ’11) and all-around talent (.318 average in 2010, 20 SB in ’09), but has yet to put it all together. He’s played no more than 128 games in any of the past three and his batting average dropped 55 points last season compared to 2010, while his strikeouts increased by 35. His potential alone is worthy of a fifth/sixth round selection. However, to this point, the overall production and reliability just hasn’t been there.
Josh Hamilton, TEX, OF (No. 32 overall)
Hamilton, whose history of injuries and off-the-field issues is well documented, has played in more than 133 games in season just once. In 2008, he played in 156 games and put up MVP-worthy numbers (.304, 32 HR, 130 RBI). The only other time he played in at least 133 games was in 2010, when he won the AL MVP with a .359-32-100 campaign. Otherwise, he has played in 90, 89 and 121 games his other three seasons. If you draft Hamilton in the fourth round, you are hoping for the 2008 and ’10 seasons and not the other ones. The fact that you don’t know which one you are getting is more than enough reason to let someone else take him that early.
Desmond Jennings, TB, OF (No. 58 overall)
I like Jennings and fully believe he will develop into a fantasy stud, I just don’t think it will happen this season. After all he has a grand total of 311 plate appearances in his career. He was called up in late July last season and after a hot start (.333, 8 HR, 20 RBI, 14 SB in 37 games), he struggled mightily (.160, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 6 SB) in September. Although I have no doubt he will get there, perhaps as early as next season, I think it’s a little early to call Jennings a top 60 overall player in 2012.
Michael Morse, WAS, 1B/OF (No. 79 overall)
First, let’s give credit where credit is due: Morse clubbed 31 home runs, drove in 95 and hit .303 in his first full season. So by calling him a “bust,” I’m not saying he’s going to pull an Adam Dunn this season and bottom out, but I am concerned that he won’t put up similar across-the-board numbers. You can’t ignore his low OBP (.360) and ugly walk-to-strikeout ratio (36:126). The power will probably still be there, but don’t be surprised if the average dips and he profiles more along the lines of a Mark Reynolds (No. 113) when looking at the complete package.
Other Fantasy Baseball Content:
2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Big Board
2012 Fantasy Baseball: First Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Second Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Shortstop Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Third Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Catcher Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Relief Pitcher Rankings
2012 MLB Fantasy Closer Grid
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Infield
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Starting Pitching
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Closers
Fantasy Baseball Studs to Avoid in 2012
2012 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleepers