— by Braden Gall (@BradenGall on twitter), published on Mar. 1, 2012
Who are the biggest sleepers and busts to watch out for on the fantasy diamond?
Using Athlon Sports’ consensus Top 150 as the barometer, here are some potential sleepers to keep an eye on and some possible busts to be wary of when it comes to drafting your fantasy teams this season.
Note: Ranking in the Top 150 is listed, if applicable. UR means player was not ranked in the Top 150.
Athlon Sports Fantasy Rankings:Big Board | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Sleepers:
Ricky Romero, Toronto (No. 99)
There were three lefties in all of the majors that produced a sub-3.00 ERA with at least 15 wins and at least 225 innings pitched last season. They were Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee and Romero. Over the last three years, he has started to develop into the ace Toronto needs. His innings, strikeouts and wins have all increased three years in a row while his ERA, WHIP and BAA has dropped in each of those seasons. He was the No. 13-rated starter in fantasy last year and should finish around there again — or 13 spots higher than his No. 26 positional ranking.
Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay (unranked)
The AL Rookie of the Year needs no introduction but is getting overshadowed in the rankings by the darling of Game 1 of the ALDS Matt Moore. Moore is a stud in his own right, but is ranked much higher than his teammate. Both are proven commodities but can still be had on the cheap for one more draft. Hellickson isn’t ranked among the top 40 starters, coming in behind the likes of Cory Luebke, Johnny Cueto, Brandon Beachy and Gio Gonzalez. His 13-win, 117-K, 2.95-ERA, 1.15-WHIP season was good for 22nd in the final SP ranks last year and with a small innings jump from 189.0, Hellickson could creep into top-20 territory fairly easily.
Jordan Zimmerman, Washington (No. 131)
After Tommy John surgery in 2009, Zimmerman proved last season that the hype surrounding his MLB debut was no joke. He posted career bests in wins, innings, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. His BAA has dropped in each of the last three seasons (albeit in a small sample size) and will be pitching for a team with a much improved offense. He should not have a problem outperforming his 34th ranking in the starting pitching pool.
Daniel Hudson, Arizona (No. 96 overall)
Everyone should know the story by now. Hudson posted a 6.32 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 2010 before being traded to Arizona. He went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in nearly 80 innings to finish 2010. He finished his first complete season in 2011 with a tidy 16-12 record, 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. As long as the innings jump doesn’t effect him too much (at 6-3, 232 it shouldn’t), Kirk Gibson will undoubtedly rely on the young righty again. Arizona will contend again and plays in the offensively challenged NL West — both good things for the rising star. If there is a mid-level starter who has the talent and situation to vault himself into the “Ace” category, it might be Huddy #2.
Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees (unranked)
Quietly out there on the West Coast, Kuroda has developed into one of the more dependable, if uninspiring, starters. He was the No. 24-rated starter in the game last year and has never had an ERA over 3.76 or a WHIP over 1.22. For where he is going in drafts — he is the No. 48 starter in the rankings currently — his value is excellent. Yes, he just turned 37 last month. But he now pitchers for the Yankees and will likely see his win total increase while maintaining his above-average 7.2 K/9 rate of the last two seasons.
2012 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitching Busts:
Mat Latos, Cincinnati (No. 91)
From 2010 to 2011, Latos regressed in almost every major fantasy category. With 10.1 more innings pitched, Latos won five fewer games, struck out four less batters and saw his ratios slip from 2.92/1.08 to 3.47/1.18 (both still useful). But now he moves from the fantasy friendly PETCO Park in San Diego to the hitterish Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati. And for a player who has dealt with injuries over his first two seasons, pitching for Dusty Baker could be the kiss of death. Don’t overpay (the word of the day).
Michael Pineda, New York Yankees (No. 85)
For a pitcher to post a .211 BAA and 1.10 WHIP in his first 171.0 innings pitched in the majors is remarkable. The massive righty also collected more than a strikeout-per-inning in his rookie year. Yet, Pineda deteriorated over the course of the year from a 2.01 April ERA to a 6.75 July and 4.70 August. He failed to win a game over his final seven starts as well. His win total (9) should easily go up in the Bronx, but expect his ratios to be closer to his final month (4.00, 1.17) than his stellar first three months. The move to the AL East and Yankee Stadium will act as the primary culprits. He will have a long career in pinstripes, but fantasy GMs will overpay in 2012.
Ian Kennedy, Arizona (No. 63)
Kennedy’s talent has never been the issue and his minor league track record suggests he has staying power. The question is cost with the D-Backs ace. The likelihood of him repeating a 21-win season are slim and none, so is using a top 5-7 round pick on him worth it? His career line before 2011 was 253.2 IP, 10-14, 4.33 ERA, 1.31 WHIP. I expect a much better line than that, of course, but he should return to earth this season and that screams over-valued to me.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington (No. 124)
His innings, strikeouts and wins have gone up every year for the last three seasons. And his ERA has dropped in three straight campaigns as well. However, he still puts entirely too many people on base to pitch in Washington as opposed to Oakland. His 1.41 career WHIP indicates as much. In fact, his BAA and WHIP both increased slightly in 2011 from 2010. He has a chance to be a dependable fourth fantasy starter but is likely going too high in drafts.
Other Fantasy Baseball Content:
2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: The Big Board
2012 Fantasy Baseball: First Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Second Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Shortstop Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Third Base Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Outfield Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Catcher Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings
2012 Fantasy Baseball: Relief Pitcher Rankings
2012 MLB Fantasy Closer Grid
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Infield
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Outfield
2012 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Busts: Closers
Fantasy Baseball Studs to Avoid in 2012
2012 Fantasy Baseball Deep Sleepers