Miami Marlins 2015 Preview and Prediction

Giancarlo Stanton and the young Marlins look to break through this season

As Marlins manager Mike Redmond pointed out during the winter meetings, it was difficult to envision a scenario in which his team would be better without right fielder Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins, in spite of a widely held belief that Stanton’s departure was imminent, locked up the slugger with a 13-year, $325 million contract, the largest in North American professional sports history. In conjunction with the Stanton announcement, the Marlins promised they would surround their superstar with sufficient talent to become a factor in the NL East.

 

In the team’s estimation, contending for a division title meant building around arguably the best outfield in baseball. Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna excelled both offensively and defensively in 2014. With that trio in place, changes would have to come on the infield. The Marlins replaced three-quarters of that group with first baseman Mike Morse, second baseman Dee Gordon and third baseman Martin Prado.

 

With ace righthander Jose Fernandez on the shelf until June or July while recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Marlins came to terms with the Reds on a deal for Mat Latos and secured Dan Haren from the Dodgers along with Gordon.

 

“They want to win,” Morse says. “They’re proving it. They’re showing it right now. … We’re right on the cusp of doing something great.”

 

Rotation

Whether the Marlins do something great will hinge on their rotation. That group expects a midseason boost when Fernandez completes his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The 2013 National League Rookie of the Year was limited to eight starts before a torn ulnar collateral ligament ended his sophomore season. With Fernandez on the shelf, several other pitchers stepped up. Henderson Alvarez logged a 2.24 ERA over his final 21 starts. Tom Koehler did not allow more than three earned runs in 15 of his last 18 outings. At the July 31 trade deadline, the Marlins struck a deal with the Astros for Jarred Cosart, and the NL agreed with him, evidenced by his 2.39 ERA. Those who didn’t raise their games in 2014 will be pitching elsewhere in 2015. Nathan Eovaldi, in spite of boasting one of the biggest fastballs in the game, did not blossom, and the Marlins dealt him to the Yankees in the Prado deal. Latos was limited to 16 starts last season with the Reds but has been one of the NL’s top pitchers when healthy. Aaron Crow, acquired from the Royals, has pitched exclusively as a reliever in the majors, but the Marlins may give him a look as a starter. David Phelps, a former Yankee who arrived as part of the Prado deal, also will be in the mix for a back-end rotation spot along with lefthanders Brad Hand and possibly Justin Nicolino. The X-factor is Haren, who after mulling retirement following his trade from the Dodgers to a non-West Coast team has decided to give it a go with the Marlins.


Bullpen

Steve Cishek in 2015 can become the first closer in Marlins history to record 30 or more saves in three consecutive seasons. During his two full seasons on the job, Cishek has converted 73 of 79 chances. The Marlins have an abundance of right-handed power arms to bridge the innings from starter to Cishek. Acquired from the Pirates last season, Bryan Morris did an exceptional job in the setup role. He had a 4–1 record and 0.66 ERA in 39 games with Miami. A.J. Ramos is a bulldog who has had more strikeouts than innings pitched in each of his two full seasons. The Marlins are hoping a healthy Carter Capps fulfills his potential. What the bullpen lacks is a true lefty specialist. Mike Dunn, who retires right-handed hitters as effectively as lefties, fills that role. Rule 5 pick Andrew McKirahan will get a look in spring training, as will Hand and prospects Adam Conley and Grant Dayton.

 

Middle Infield

The Marlins believe shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria is on the verge of winning a Gold Glove. His defensive skills have been as good as advertised, and the bat is catching up. Hechavarria improved his average from .227 in 2013 to .276. Before the 2014 season, the Marlins signed free agent Rafael Furcal to be their everyday second baseman. Injuries limited him to nine games last season, and the team never found a suitable replacement. The Marlins, who won their second of two World Series in 2003 with speedsters Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo atop the order, wanted to recapture that element and targeted Gordon. He stole 64 bases and earned an All-Star selection in 2014. The question with Gordon is whether he can maintain a high enough on-base percentage to remain atop the order.

 

Corners

The Marlins supplanted both of their corner infielders. Signed to a two-year deal before last season, first baseman Garrett Jones struggled defensively and wasn’t a consistent run-producer. They traded him with Eovaldi and pitcher Domingo German to the Yankees for Prado, Phelps and cash. Morse, who hit 16 home runs for the World Series champion Giants last season, was signed to a two-year deal to replace Jones. The Prado acquisition set off alarms for Casey McGehee, whom the Marlins signed to be their third baseman after a 2013 championship-winning season with Rakuten in Japan. McGehee hit cleanup most of 2014 and was NL Comeback Player of the Year, but not long after the Marlins landed Prado they shipped McGehee to the Giants. The Marlins love Prado’s athleticism and ability to hit anywhere in the lineup.

 

Outfield

In addition to Stanton, one of the game’s superstars and arguably its top right-handed power hitter, the Marlins feature a pair of homegrown studs in Yelich and Ozuna. The left-handed hitting Yelich is a future three-hole hitter and already has a Gold Glove. Ozuna probably is more suited for right field, but center did not prove a challenge, even in cavernous Marlins Park. He has one of the top arms in the game. MLB Network ranked the Marlins’ trio as the majors’ top outfield in 2014. Miami also signed veteran Ichiro Suzuki, who is 156 hits away from 3,000 in his MLB career, to a one-year deal for depth.

 

Catching

Coming off a World Series-winning season with the Red Sox in 2013, free agent Jarrod Saltalamacchia signed a three-year deal with the Marlins. Year 1 was a fiasco. Saltalamacchia led all NL catchers with 15 errors, and he didn’t make up for the substandard defense with his bat. Saltalamacchia hit .220 with a .362 slugging percentage. Backup Jeff Mathis doesn’t offer much offensively, but he possesses all the physical tools and intangibles.

 

Bench

The Marlins have an array of backup infielders with guys like Donovan Solano, Jeff Baker, Jordany Valdespin, Miguel Rojas and Derek Dietrich and only one established reserve outfielder in Suzuki. The left-handed swinging Justin Bour also will vie for a bench job this spring. He’s a natural first baseman but has logged some time in left.

 

Management

Redmond returns for his third season as the team’s manager. On the final day of the 2014 season, the club announced it had extended his contract through 2017, giving the Marlins some stability in the manager’s office and coaching ranks. Redmond was a big leaguer as recently as 2010, and his relative youth (43) has allowed him to connect with his players.

 

Final Analysis

Redmond is well aware that going from 77 to 92 wins is much more challenging than the club’s previous jump from 62 to 77. That next big leap could take more than one season, especially without 30-plus starts from Fernandez. Nonetheless, the Marlins have every expectation of playing meaningful games in late September.

 

2015 Prediction: 2nd in NL East

 

Projected Lineup

2B       Dee Gordon (L)        Speedster acquired from Dodgers stole more bases (64) in 2014 than entire Marlins team (58).

LF       Christian Yelich (L) Gold Glove winner in 2014, Yelich could hit third if Marlins opt to slot Martin Prado in two-hole.

RF       Giancarlo Stanton (R)         Led the National League with 37 homers despite missing final two-and-a-half weeks of season.

1B       Mike Morse (R)         Fort Lauderdale native will play his best defensive position on hometown team.

3B       Martin Prado (R)      Hit .316 with .877 OPS in 137 plate appearances after 2014 trade from Diamondbacks to Yankees.

CF       Marcell Ozuna (R)    Hit 23 homers and knocked in 85 runs, second on club in 2014 behind Stanton’s 37 and 105.

C         Jarrod Saltalamacchia (S) Signed to a three-year deal before last season; looking to rebound offensively and defensively.

SS       Adeiny Hechavarria (R)      Gold Glove-caliber defender hit 49 points better (.276) in 2014 than he did in 2013.

 

Bench

C         Jeff Mathis (R)          Makes up for light hitting with gritty play and manner in which he handles young pitchers.

OF       Ichiro Suzuki (L)       After 2,204 career games with AL teams, Suzuki comes to the NL 156 hits shy of 3,000.

INF      Jeff Baker (R)           Rebounded well from rough first half with productive second half in 2014, his first season with the Marlins.

INF      Donovan Solano (R)           Saw extended time at second base in August and September, and can play outfield in a pinch.

INF      Miguel Rojas (R)     Ex-Dodger played second, short and third during 85-game rookie season in 2014.

 

Rotation

RH      Henderson Alvarez  Pitched like an ace after Jose Fernandez underwent Tommy John surgery in May.

RH      Mat Latos      Limited to 16 starts with Reds in 2014 due to knee injury and arm trouble, and saw dip in velocity.

RH      Jarred Cosart           Logged 2.39 ERA in 10 starts after he was acquired from Astros at July 31 trade deadline.

RH      Tom Koehler            Back-of-the-rotation workhorse finished just shy of 200-inning plateau (191.1).

RH      Dan Haren    Marlins hoped to convince Haren to pitch for them rather than retire or force trade to West Coast team.

 

Bullpen

RH      Steve Cishek (Closer)        Former fifth-round pick struck out 84 in 65.1 innings en route to a career-high 39 saves in 2014.

RH      Bryan Morris Logged 1.82 ERA with a 1.275 WHIP in 2014 between 60 appearances with Pirates, Marlins.

RH      A.J. Ramos   Allowed only 36 hits in 64.0 innings while recording a 7–0 record out of the pen in 2014.

RH      Carter Capps           Hard thrower limited to 27 appearances between majors and minors in 2014 due to elbow injury.

RH      Aaron Crow   Ex-Royals reliever may get a look as a starter, but at the least will open season in bullpen.

LH       Mike Dunn     For his career has held left-handed hitters to a .220 average and righties to .238 mark.

LH       Andrew McKirahan  Rule 5 pick split 2014 between Cubs’ High-A and Double-A affiliates and recorded a 2.08 ERA.

 

Beyond the Box Score

Tat man The trade to Miami should afford Mat Latos a chance to meet one of his idols: Heat forward Chris “Birdman” Andersen. If nothing else, the two can find some common ground when it comes to body art; both are heavily tattooed. Latos said he gave serious consideration to sporting his Birdman Heat jersey to his introductory press conference. Asked about a possible photo shoot with the two, Latos added: “That would be embarrassing for me. … I’m not as hardcore as Birdman. He has a neck tattoo. That’s awesome to me.”

Role model While in the Dodgers’ organization, Dee Gordon learned from Maury Wills, one of the top base-stealers in baseball history. With the Marlins, Gordon will work under another ex-Dodgers favorite. Third base coach Brett Butler totaled 179 of his 558 career steals as a member of the Dodgers from 1991-94 and 1995-97. Unlike Gordon, who nabbed 64 in 2014, Butler never totaled more than 52 steals in a season.  “From what I’ve seen and heard, our games pretty much match up,” Gordon says. “To be able to pick (Butler’s) brain on a daily basis and learn from him is going to be amazing.”

Native sons Latos and Mike Morse have special ties to the Marlins. Both attended the franchise’s inaugural game on April 5, 1993. Morse, born in Fort Lauderdale, and Latos, a product of Coconut Creek High School and Broward College, both were raised in South Florida.

Early test The Marlins will get an early barometer of how they compare against their division rivals. With the exception of a three-game interleague home series against the Rays, the Marlins play exclusively within the National League East through May 6. Last season, the Marlins were a combined 33-43 versus the Nationals, Braves, Phillies and Mets.

Brothers … and teammates? Marlins infielder Donovan Solano has shared the same major league field with his brother Jhonatan a handful of times. Jhonatan and Donovan may find themselves in the same big-league dugout at some point. After the Nationals released Jhonatan, a catcher, the Marlins signed him to a minor league contract. The Solano brothers are two of 14 native Colombians to appear in the majors and the second set of brothers.

 

2014 Top Draft Pick

Tyler Kolek, RHP

The last time the Marlins had the second overall pick in the draft, they selected a hard-throwing Texas high school righthander in Josh Beckett. Picking second again in 2014, they went the same route. Kolek is a hulking 6'5", 260-pounder whose fastball touched 102 mph while at Shepherd High School about 60 miles outside of Houston. Kolek received a franchise-record $6 million signing bonus and began his professional career in the rookie Gulf Coast League. A minor back issue limited him to nine appearances. He lost all three decisions and struck out just five more batters (18) than he walked, but the Marlins were pleased with his progress. After the season, Kolek went to the instructional league, where he adjusted his delivery. After Andrew Heaney’s departure via trade, Kolek is now the club’s undisputed top prospect.

 

Top 10 Prospects

1. Tyler Kolek, RHP (19) The hard-throwing, physically imposing Kolek complements a triple-digit fastball with a hard curve. Among his goals in his first full pro season will be finding a changeup.

2. Jose Urena, RHP (23) Urena had an impressive 2014 season with Double-A Jacksonville. His fastball and changeup ultimately could make him a compelling late-inning reliever.

3. J.T. Realmuto, C (24) A quarterback and shortstop, Realmuto is among the organization’s best athletes. He made his major league debut last season and should open 2015 at Triple-A New Orleans.

4. Justin Nicolino, LHP (23) He was the ace of the Class AA Jacksonville rotation, going 14–4 with a 2.85 ERA, 20 walks and 81 strikeouts in 170.1 IP. 

5. Avery Romero, 2B (21) A stocky 5'8", 190 pounds, Romero projects to have above-average power for a middle infielder.

6. Isael Soto, RF (18) The Marlins believe they have a Raul Mondesi-type talent in Soto, who is coming off his first professional season.

7. Austin Dean, LF (21) Drafted in the fourth round as a shortstop in 2012, Dean made the transition to the outfield and is coming off his best pro season.

8. Trevor Williams, RHP (22) He complements a four- and two-seam fastball with a slider, curve and changeup.

9. Matt Ramsey, RHP (25) Last July, the Marlins sent the Rays their second, third and fourth international bonus slots for Ramsey, who at the time was mowing down Southern League hitters.

10. Brian Anderson, 3B (21) In his first pro season, he demonstrated an advanced hitting approach in the short-season Class-A New York-Penn League.

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