Skip to main content

New York Mets 2015 Preview and Prediction

Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey

After six consecutive losing seasons, tied with Houston for the longest active streak in the majors, the Mets believe they can finally break the .500 mark — and these days, if you do that, you can contend for a wild card. Anything less would be a bitter disappointment for the Mets. Some of their young players made meaningful strides last season, and their veterans should still have enough left to make a positive impact. After a strong September (15–10), and with a rotation on the rise, the Mets are poised to be relevant again.

Rotation

A dynamic young rotation is the primary strength of this team. Matt Harvey returns after missing a full year following Tommy John surgery. An alpha dog in the mold of Roger Clemens, Harvey is eager to reclaim his role as staff ace and dominant force. He may be rusty, of course, and don’t expect him to throw 230 innings. But the innings he throws should be high quality. Harvey’s sidekick, the hard-throwing Zack Wheeler, finished with a strong second half, and the duo acquired another running mate along the way in Jacob deGrom, who burst onto the scene to win the NL Rookie of the Year award with a 2.69 ERA in 22 starts, with more strikeouts than innings. Noah Syndergaard could join that trio soon enough, but for now there’s a logjam, with lefty Jon Niese and righties Bartolo Colon and Dillon Gee — all solid, if unspectacular pros who combined to make 83 starts last season, going 31–32. Another option, Rafael Montero, was shaky at times but showed that he could hold his own.


Bullpen

In his first three years with the Mets, Terry Collins’ bullpen ranked 28th, 29th and 22nd in the majors in ERA. Last year, though, the Mets’ relief corps jumped to eighth, with a 3.14 mark. Collins found a young closer in Jenrry Mejia, who converted 28 of 31 save chances and made a habit of dancing off the mound after the final out. The four relievers with the most appearances besides Mejia — Carlos Torres, Jeurys Familia, Vic Black and Josh Edgin — all had ERAs below 3.10. Another standout performance, though, is no sure thing, as Mejia, Black and Edgin all dealt with injury problems in the second half and Torres absorbed a heavy workload. Look for former closer Bobby Parnell, who went down to Tommy John surgery after pitching on Opening Day, to return early in the season.

Middle Infield

The ever-consistent Daniel Murphy is good for a lot of singles and doubles every year, and an average of roughly .290. Even his error total at second is steady: 15 or 16 in each of the last three years. His double-play partner is a source of frustration for Mets fans, many of whom still pine for the flash of the long-departed Jose Reyes. After a strong September, it’s Wilmer Flores’ turn to get the starting job that Ruben Tejada never really seized. Flores is only 23 and hit better at each level in the minors. He’s had only 375 plate appearances in the majors, and he just might be the Mets’ long-term answer. Now Flores needs a little patience from fans and media to see if he is.

Corners

The Mets finally settled their first base quandary early last season, trading Ike Davis to Pittsburgh and giving Lucas Duda the position. The quiet slugger gained confidence and blossomed, smashing 30 home runs. His patient approach at the plate fits with the Mets’ organizational strategy, and the power should only rise now that the walls in center and right are closer to the plate at Citi Field. At 29, Duda should be right in the middle of his prime, and with teams starving for power, his emergence is a big reason the Mets are so optimistic about 2015. They would feel even better if their captain, David Wright, were coming off a better season, but shoulder problems kept Wright from having his usual standout performance. He avoided surgery on his bruised rotator cuff and was cleared to begin baseball activities in December. Barring a setback, Wright, at 32, should resume his place among the game’s best all-around players: about a .300 average with 20 or so homers and 90 or more RBIs, plus about 15 steals and his usual stellar defense.

Outfield

The Mets’ outfielders will have a bit less ground to cover at Citi Field this season, with portions of the walls in center and right field pulled in from three to 11 feet. Of course, the change had nothing to do with the Mets’ defense and everything to do with their offense. Had these dimensions been in place last season, the Mets say, their hitters would have hit 17 more homers, and their pitchers would have allowed 10 more. The pull-hitting Curtis Granderson should benefit most from the new dimensions, but on defense he’ll have to adjust to left field, where he started eight times last season and 11 times in 2013. Granderson says he is fine with the switch, which accommodates newcomer Michael Cuddyer, who takes over in right. Cuddyer missed most of last season with a fracture to his left shoulder socket, but he passed his physical and should be a solid bat in the middle of the order. Granderson, age 34, and Cuddyer, age 36, will benefit from flanking the majors’ best defensive center fielder, Juan Lagares, who won his first Gold Glove last season while improving his batting average from .242 to .281. Lagares still doesn’t walk much, but his bat is viable enough and his glove is so dazzling that he’s earned the right to start every day.

Catching

Travis d’Arnaud was hitting .180 with a meager .544 OPS when he was demoted to Class AAA Las Vegas last June. The hitting coach there, George Greer, told him to try to hit a double every time he came to bat. He learned how to better cover the outer half of the plate, and hit like he always has in the minors, where he is a .290 career hitter with an .838 OPS. d’Arnaud was better after he returned, hitting .270 with an .805 OPS and 10 homers in 69 games. The Mets would gladly take that production for a full year, and at 26, d’Arnaud needs to put together that kind of season — a demand that takes on greater urgency because Kevin Plawecki, a top catching prospect, is coming on fast in AAA. Backup Anthony Recker’s .197 career average obscures his decent power and his skill at working with the pitching staff.