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San Diego Padres 2012 Preview


San Diego Padres

Just when it was looking like the Padres were building for the future, new general manager Josh Byrnes made two moves in late December that should at least give the Padres some hope in 2012, even if they’re still long shots to win the NL West. Byrnes made a New Year’s Eve splash when he acquired All-Star slugger Carlos Quentin from the Chicago White Sox for two prospects, bringing the left fielder to his hometown. The addition of Quentin, who’s had four straight 20-homer seasons, is an immediate upgrade for a weak offense. Two weeks earlier, Byrnes swapped mercurial starter Mat Latos for starter Edinson Volquez and first baseman Yonder Alonso, plus two prospects. The two moves showed that Byrnes and CEO Jeff Moorad are willing to take on some salary and acquire established major leaguers in exchange for some of the prospects the franchise has been stockpiling for two years. In another notable deal, Byrnes traded Anthony Rizzo, one of three prospects obtained for Adrian Gonzalez a year earlier, for reliever Andrew Cashner.

With Latos gone to the Reds and 14-game winner and local product Aaron Harang off to the rival Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres’ rotation should still be solid, even if it doesn’t have a marquee name. The starting five is expected to be Tim Stauffer, Volquez, Cory Luebke, lefty Clayton Richard and Dustin Moseley. The low-key Stauffer has carried the Padres in big situations before and was the Opening Day starter in 2011. Richard and Moseley are both coming off shoulder surgeries and are expected to be ready to go by spring training. Volquez is trying to bounce back from a disappointing season. An All-Star in 2008, he still hasn’t regained the form he had before having reconstructive elbow surgery. Of the five, only Stauffer came close to double-digit wins last season; he went 9–12 with a 3.73 ERA.

Byrnes had to do some tweaking to the bullpen. He didn’t make an attempt to keep closer Heath Bell, and setup man Mike Adams was traded to Texas for prospects in late July. Bell signed with Miami for $27 million over three years, the kind of money the Padres say they’d never spend on one player. Byrnes responded by trading for closer Huston Street from the division rival Colorado Rockies. The 28-year-old Street had 29 saves in 33 chances in 2011. He says he’s looking forward to pitching at sea level in pitcher-friendly Petco Park rather than at mile-high Coors Field. Luke Gregerson, the opening salvo in what had been a 1-2-3 punch with Adams and Bell, is expected to retain his seventh-inning role. Cashner, obtained when Rizzo was sent to the Cubs, is expected to be the setup man. Ernesto Frieri is solid.

Middle Infield
Shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson could very well be in their second and final seasons with the Padres. Bartlett hasn’t regained his 2009 All-Star form while with Tampa Bay, and Hudson showed too many lapses in judgment in the field. In one game, Hudson lost track of the number of outs and tossed a live ball to a ball girl, who tossed it into the stands. At least twice he remained on the ground instead of hustling up to grab a live ball, allowing base-runners to advance. Each player will make $5.5 million this year. Hudson got a sweet deal from the Padres, whose CEO, Moorad, represented Hudson during his days as an agent.

After getting their wish for the Padres to promote Rizzo last spring, fans watched as Rizzo had a few good games, then struggled mightily with his big, looping swing. The Padres acquired Alonso in the deal for Latos, and he immediately becomes the leading contender for the starting job at first base. Alonso, the seventh overall pick in the 2008 draft, was stuck behind Joey Votto with the Reds and was moved to left field briefly last season. He batted .330 with five homers and 15 RBIs in 47 games. Chase Headley remains the third baseman, although there’s never a shortage of rumors that he’ll be moved. Headley continues to lack decent power numbers at spacious Petco Park. He missed 39 games with a broken left pinkie, hit only four homers and struck out 92 times.

Until the addition of Quentin on New Year’s Eve, the emerging star of this group had been center fielder Cameron Maybin. Maybin is exciting in the field, at the plate and on the base paths. He set career-highs in nearly every offensive category in his first year with San Diego, including games (137), runs (82), hits (136), doubles (24), triples (8), home runs (9), RBIs (40) and stolen bases (40). He led the team in runs, triples, stolen bases and posted a career-high 37 multi-hit games. His 40 stolen bases ranked tied for fourth-most in the majors and tied for second-most in the National League. After recovering from knee surgery, which should be by the end of May, Quentin will start in left and provide badly needed power in the middle of the lineup. A two-time AL All-Star, the hometown product has had four straight 20-homer seasons, including 36 in 2008. Rightfielder Will Venable struggled so badly last season that he was sent down to the minors to work on his swing, and still finished with a .246 average. Jesus Guzman, who will see significant time in the outfield, especially until Quentin is completely healthy, hit .312 after his promotion, ranking 13th-best in the National League from June 16 through the end of the season.

Nick Hundley has established himself as the front-line catcher. He started a career-high-tying 73 games, his third straight season of 70 or more starts. He had two trips to the disabled list, the first for a strained muscle in his right side and the second after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. He also showed nice pop with the bat, setting career-highs with nine homers, a .288 average, .347 on-base percentage and.477 slugging percentage. The backup will be John Baker, who missed most of last season after having elbow surgery. He had only two hits in 16 games with the Marlins but has a career on-base percentage of .356.

Mark Kotsay, signed as a free agent in November, will be a backup outfielder but, more important, a veteran presence for a young club. Outfielder Chris Denorfia has been solid in his two seasons with the Padres. The Padres continue to have hopes for shortstop Everth Cabrera, who’s been up and down after joining the club as a Rule 5 draftee. He’ll start 2012 in the minors. Guzman’s bat is too valuable, so he’s expected to see time in both the outfield and at first.

Moorad, the CEO and minority owner, got what he wanted during a management shuffle that saw Jed Hoyer leave for the Cubs, where he’s been reunited with Theo Epstein. That allowed Moorad to promote Byrnes to GM. Byrnes was GM when Moorad was an executive with the Diamondbacks, and was fired the season after Moorad left to buy the Padres. Finances will force Byrnes to continue the philosophy of building the farm system to restock the big league club. Moorad is still in the process of purchasing the team on the installment plan from John Moores.

Final Analysis
While the rival Dodgers gave Matt Kemp a $160 million contract and the neighboring Angels gave Albert Pujols a $250 million deal, and division rival San Francisco ponied up more than $200 million to keep starter Matt Cain, the Padres will operate with a player payroll now in the upper $50 million range. The willingness to acquire Quentin, Volquez and Alonso changed the complexion of the club and shows that the Padres are looking for something a little quicker than a total rebuilding job. A change from those boring, low-scoring nights at Petco Park would be a good thing for San Diego’s long-suffering fans.

Batting Order
CF Cameron Maybin (R)
Padres’ most exciting player could be face of franchise for years.
RF Will Venable (L)
Homegrown talent struggled at plate so badly last year he was sent to minors to work on swing.
3B Chase Headley (S)
Low power numbers, development of prospect Jedd Gyorko have people wondering how long he’ll be around.
LF Jesus Guzman (R)
Came from nowhere to become Padres’ most consistent hitter and earn a roster spot for this year. Team may face a tough decision when Quentin returns.
1B Yonder Alonso (L)

Is expected to make people forget Rizzo-mania — at least for the time being.
C Nick Hundley (R)
Impressive offensive year included career-best nine homers, .288 average, .347 OBP, .477 SLG.
2B Orlando Hudson (S)
Brain cramps on defense had people wondering why Padres gave the O Dog a big contract.
SS Jason Bartlett (R)
Solid if not flashy with glove, batting average continued downward trend at .245.

OF Carlos Quentin (R)
Brings his power to Petco Park after four straight 20-homer seasons with White Sox. Knee surgery will keep him out until at least mid-May.
OF Mark Kotsay (L)
Signed for his clubhouse leadership as much as his left-handed bat off the bench.
C John Baker (L)
Left-handed hitter missed most of 2011 with Marlins after having right elbow surgery.
OF Chris Denorfia (R)
Can play all three outfield spots; made 72 starts in 2011 and is solid backup with nice bat.
1B/OF Kyle Blanks (R)
The .219 career hitter has yet to show the potential displayed in the minors.
1B/OF Andy Parrino (S)
Hit .327 in a partial season at Triple-A last year. In 1,547 prior minor league at-bats at lower levels, he hit just .258.
OF Jeremy Hermida (L)
Made the team as a non-roster player after injuries opened some spots.

RH Tim Stauffer
Opening Day starter set career-highs in starts (31), wins (9), innings (185.1) and strikeouts (128).
RH Edinson Volquez
2008 All-Star still struggling to regain form after 2009 reconstructive elbow surgery.
LH Cory Luebke
Recorded a career-high 154 strikeouts, in 139.2 innings, second-most by a Padres rookie.
LH Clayton Richard
Made 18 starts before undergoing season-ending arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder on July 29.
RH Dustin Moseley
Had career-bests in starts (20), innings (120), ERA (3.30) and strikeouts (64) before shoulder surgery.

RH Huston Street (Closer)
Former Longhorn had 29 saves in 33 chances for division-rival Rockies in 2011.
RH Luke Gregerson
Only one of big three left; worked scoreless ball in 48 of 61 outings, including 23 of 30 at home.
RH Ernesto Frieri
Middle relief workhorse had 76 strikeouts in 63 innings over 59 appearances, all career bests.
RH Andrew Cashner
After missing bulk of ’11 with rotator cuff injury with Cubs, is expected to assume setup role.
LH Joe Thatcher
Made 18 appearances in final two months after having surgery on left shoulder in early May.