Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Game Preview
The Hawks will look to sweep their home back-to-back on Saturday night in a bout with the Trail Blazers, who have navigated a star-crossed season and are teetering on the brink of missing the postseason for the first time since 2013. Portland has dealt with injuries, disappointments, and a devilish schedule, resorting to trades and midseason signings just to keep an unsteady roster afloat. Damian Lillard has been one of the few forces holding the operation together -- he is among the very best in the NBA in that role -- but a groin injury Lillard suffered just before the All-Star break may have thwarted the Blazers’ chance to salvage a six-year playoff streak.
After re-entering the playoff discussion just before the All-Star break have lost five of their last six games, with the Pelicans surging from behind them and Grizzlies holding steady in eighth place. Mounting a run without Lillard, who didn’t travel with the team on its current three-game road trip, Zach Collins, who has missed all but three games with a shoulder injury, and Jusuf Nurkić, who hasn’t played since fracturing his leg last March, will be immensely difficult. The Blazers are 10.6 points per 100 possessions worse without Lillard on the floor this season, and have sunk all the way to 19th in net rating without their catalyst.
Game Time: Saturday, February 29, 2020, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: FOX Sports Southeast, NBC Sports Northwest
Streaming: NBA League Pass, FOX Sports Go
Spread: Atlanta -1.5
Few players in the NBA warp entire defenses with their shooting ability like Trae Young, but Lillard is one of the rare guards who can outdo Atlanta’s point guard from long, long range. He leads the NBA with 43 made shots from 30 feet or deeper (Young ranks second with 31) and shoots over 42 percent on those looks. He’ll fire without any hesitation, almost to the point of redefining what constitutes a good shot. His run of games to close the month of January was unlike any six-game stretch in NBA history, and there’s nothing quite like the spectacle of when Lillard heats up.
That kind of weapon can’t be easily replaced, especially by a team that relies as heavily on him as do the Blazers. Portland has other threats -- CJ McCollum offers smooth secondary scoring, Hassan Whiteside applies pressure at the rim, Gary Trent and Trevor Ariza offer reliable floor spacing, and Carmelo Anthony gets his shots up -- but Lillard is the thread that connects them and allows them to plug into a functioning offense. The Blazers score an abysmal 97.3 points per 100 possessions, generate worse shots, and turn the ball over more often with Lillard off the floor. McCollum is a dangerous individual scorer who can facilitate in a pinch, but asking him or Anfernee Simons to slide into a primary creation role overextends them more than the Blazers would like.
Without him, Portland’s offense is a wheel with fine spokes but no hub to upon which to lean.
Even with Lillard in the lineup, Atlanta took the Blazers to overtime back in November (without John Collins). This time, the Hawks will have the health and top-end talent advantages, even if they’re dealing with injury troubles of their own. Dewayne Dedmon will miss his third consecutive game with right elbow soreness, DeAndre’ Bembry likely won’t play due to abdominal pain, and Clint Capela remains out with plantar fasciitis. Still, Atlanta has most of its rotation available, and will look to build off of its best all-around win of the season on Friday night.
After scoring just 22 points on Friday, Young could have an easier time against Portland’s defense tonight. The Blazers play a deep drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, and Terry Stotts likely won’t be as willing to shift into zone defenses as Kenny Atkinson was. That could give Young a heavy diet of pull-up 3-pointers and floaters out of the two-man game. If Portland brings Whiteside farther up the floor to defend Young, the point guard has the speed to blow past him and the vision to find open teammates for buckets.
How the Hawks start the game will also be fascinating. The Blazers stay big with a conventional center on the floor most of the time while Anthony plays power forward. Lloyd Pierce has leaned toward his smaller lineups lately, especially with Dedmon unavailable, but starting with Bruno Fernando at center could actually give the Hawks a greater advantage in the frontcourt. Anthony stands little chance of defending Collins in any context, let alone a pick-and-roll between Collins and Young. Atlanta may also need a larger body on the floor to contend with Whiteside on the glass.
Those matchup issues are easier for the Blazers to navigate with Lillard on the floor to boost them on the other end. Absent its catalyst, Portland’s every flaw becomes more pronounced, and its weaknesses more exploitable. Even the Hawks, at 18-43, might be well-equipped enough to take advantage.
