There's plenty of value (and choices) when it comes to props in the Super Bowl
There's just one NFL game left this season, Super Bowl LII, and there are millions of ways to wager on it. A lot of people worry about the sides and totals with the big game, but the big money is with the prop bets. There are a ton of them out there ranging from the simple involving the coin toss to the cross-sport wagers to bring in the NBA and NHL fans.
Before we get to my thoughts on the bets I like, let me lay out how you should approach these things. Before you even look at the prop sheets, you need to mentally play out the Super Bowl in your mind. Break it down to the score, who will be putting up the points and how certain players will do.
You'll get my thoughts on the game in another post, but right now we'll attack the props. Also remember that your Super Bowl may play out differently than mine so you may go against a lot of the props that I'm putting here. The other thing you need to decide is how much of your bankroll you want to dedicate to this because it's very easy to go overboard on these wagers and stretch yourself too thin.
Finally, in my mind, I want either long-shot wagers that have great values or ones that I think are pretty close to locks at decent prices. You won't see me taking anything above -120 or so unless I really like the wager. With that, here are the bets I like courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book:
Eagles first penalty in Super Bowl LII (-125)
New England is an extremely disciplined team and despite what you may think about the officials, they are not looking to help one team out. Still, the Pats get penalized a lot less then their opponents. Not only that, the Eagles’ defense has had some costly penalties which have extended drives. I think this is a good wager especially since there are a lot of Philadelphia players who could have some early jitters not having been on this stage before.
Will both teams make 33-yard or longer FGs (EVEN)
This is usually one of my favorite wagers and with each of these teams having good kickers, it's going to hit again. Both Jake Elliott (right) and Stephen Gostkowski have made 21 FGs of 30 yards or longer. Doug Pederson has the utmost confidence in Elliott especially from longer range, while the Pats’ veteran is equally good at his job. As long as this stays at EVEN money or better, I'm on this prop.
LeGarrette Blount Yes touchdown (+190)
Blount is facing off against his old team and this will go with a theme that I have for the Super Bowl. The veteran has had a touchdown in both games this postseason which equals how many he's had all season long. I really think the Eagles have to ground and pound in order to win this game and I think Blount does his best Mariano Rivera impression and becomes the closer for at least one drive in this game.
Over 3.5 receptions James White (+110)
White (above, right) was one of the heroes of last year's Super Bowl and has been a very good safety valve for New England. He enters the Super Bowl with 63 receptions this season and it feels like the number hovers around three or four catches in any given game. With the fierce Eagles pass rush looking to put heat on Tom Brady, he may need to throw some quick passes to White and the other running backs. I'll take a shot at plus money with this one.
Nick Foles first TD pass vs. Tom Brady (+150)
This one is simply a play on value. There's no reason why Foles wont’ be able to throw a touchdown in his first couple of drives. Brady will get his, but at this price, I'll take the chance with another competent quarterback that is playing some good football right now.
Victor Oladipo Pts/Rebs/Assists +14.5 vs. Eagles/Pats points (-110)
The total for this game is around 48 which means that Oladipo, the Indiana Pacers’ leading scorer, has to get 34 total points, rebounds and assists. On Super Sunday, he’s going up against the Philadelphia 76ers, whom he faced back on Nov. 3. In that contest, Oladipo had 31 points, five rebounds and seven assists. The star is pretty consistent at home and against the 76ers, I think he could have a big game around his average. This one could become a better wager if Philadelphia’s best player, Joel Embiid, doesn't play the second of back-to-back games. Right now, it looks like he will, but there's a chance he doesn't, which should mean even more space to operate and penetrate for Oladipo.
Giannis Antetokounmpo -0.5 points vs. Pats Points (-110)
The Greek Freak is playing some good basketball and has already faced the Brooklyn Nets once this season. Antetokounmpo’s Bucks handled them 116-91 back on Jan. 26 in a contest that saw him pour in 41 points on 14-of-20 shooting. Brooklyn is not a great defensive team and really doesn't have anyone who can match up with the guy. He's averaging just under 30 points per contest and I think we could see him score around that. I don't think New England gets to 30 so give me the guy that will be starring on the hardwood on Super Sunday.
Temple/Tulane margin of victory +4.5 vs. Trey Burton receiving yards (-110)
Some team will win the Temple/Tulane game, which already gives us a leg up on Burton, who has had five games of zero catches and zero yards. Philadelphia’s backup tight end has just 24 receptions on 33 targets on the year. He did have a 12-yard catch against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, but has posted a goose egg in two of the Eagles’ last four games. Even if Burton does get on the board, I think the winner of the Tulane game could do so by five or six points so we have a bit of a cushion.
Jay Ajayi (25/1) and LeGarrette Blount (60/1) to win the MVP
This probably gives away my selection for the game itself, but there is some logic to this statement. If you think the Patriots are going to win, then Tom Brady is your answer and there's no value with him at 4/5. Nick Foles is 3/1, but there are plenty of ways for Philadelphia to score without him. I took Blount to score and I think he could do so multiple times. If the veteran gets multiple touchdowns in a lower-scoring game, then I think he can win the MVP. It’s the same logic for Ajayi if he breaks some long runs. I think the Eagles can win this game if they run it a ton and keep Brady and the Patriots’ offense off the field.
— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.