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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Picks for Week 10


I hope by now the reader of this article has realized the best team doesn't always win in the NFL and some spreads are odd for a reason. Denver's loss in Indianapolis after a huge win at home over Green Bay was a head scratcher, but the desperation of the Colts won out. I can't exactly explain the Titans' win in New Orleans other then pointing to Rob Ryan's unit that couldn't defend a high school team. Let me congratulate you if you are still in your survival pool as I was eliminated in Week 2 I think. It's been a wild year and we're just over the halfway point. 

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Record: 22-14-1 (2-2 last week...not counting suggestion of Eagles ML in record)

Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)

Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops after facing the Panthers’ and Broncos’ defenses the last two weeks. Detroit is coming off a bye, but I don't think the Lions can fix a defense that has allowed 28 points or more in its last four games, including getting gashed by the Chiefs in London last time out. Green Bay's D hasn't been great either, getting beaten up on the field and off. They have several CBs who are banged up and may or may not play, which means Matthew Stafford, Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson could have their own fun. These two teams have played 13 overs in their last 24 meetings in Green Bay. SELECTION: Over 48

Chicago Bears (3-5) at St. Louis Rams (4-4)

Chicago looked impressive in its Monday night win at San Diego and now have to hit the road again to play a feisty St. Louis team. Of note is the upcoming Nov. 22 home game against the Broncos, which pits John Fox against his old team. The Bears’ defense hasn't played as bad as many thought this unit would this season, which is why five of Chicago’s last six games have gone under the total. The Rams’ offense is Todd Gurley and a lot of nothing. Nick Foles has thrown for more than 200 yards just once and that was all the way back in Week 1 vs. Seattle. The good thing for the Rams is that their defense has allowed just 24 points in their last three home games. They will be ready for rookie RB Jeremy Langford, who ran well vs. the Chargers. These two teams have combined for 11 unders in 16 games this season. SELECTION: Under 42.5

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

Go figure that the Saints, who had won three straight, would lose to the Titans at home.  New Orleans' defense enters this one having allowed 83 points in the last two games (Giants, Tennessee) alone. No one will confuse the Redskins for the "Greatest Show on Turf," but they do have weapons. One would think that Kirk Cousins will get back on track and so will the Washington run game. Drew Brees will struggle with the Skins’ pass rush getting in his face. Washington has covered in both games this season as a home underdog. New Orleans has failed to cover in 13 of its last 22 road games. SELECTION: Redskins +1

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Arizona Cardinals (6-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-4)

Both NFC West teams are coming off a bye week and are pretty healthy. Seattle has allowed just 12 points in its last two games after giving up 54 the previous two. The Legion of Boom is back together and the Seahawks’ secondary is once again clamping down on offenses. Three teams have thrown for fewer than 100 yards against Seattle this season. Carson Palmer will probably do better than that, but he may struggle as well. Seattle's offense has been the issue with a suspect offensive line and the same lack of weapons. Arizona's offense doesn't have that issue although the Cardinals have scored just 20 points in their last two games in Seattle. These two teams have played nine unders in their last 15 meetings. Arizona has gone under in 14 of its last 21 games as an underdog. SELECTION: Under 45


— Before the season began, no one would have been that shocked if the Dallas vs. Tampa Bay matchup featured a two-win team. While this is the case, the team that fits this characteristic is no the Buccaneers, but the Cowboys, who also enter as the equally surprising underdog. They are coming off an emotional home loss Sunday night to the Eagles while Tampa also is coming off a loss. It seems real easy to take the home team in this one especially if Dallas linebackers Sean Lee and Anthony Hitchens are out. I just can't bring myself to rely on the Bucs, whose defense is mediocre and whose offense is being led by an inconsistent rookie QB.

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— Focus could be a massive issue for Carolina, who travels to Tennessee. The Panthers are coming off a stretch where they played Seattle, Philly, Indy and Green Bay. The Titans are flying high after winning in New Orleans. It's going to be hard for Carolina to get up for a non-conference game it is expected to win fairly easily. Tennessee's defense is putting up surprising numbers, allowing fewer yards per game than the name-brand Panthers. Tennessee has covered in 11 of its last 15 games against NFC South teams. The value may be gone though, especially as we approach the magic number of three.

— Conflicting trends will be on display in Philly. The Dolphins are playing their third straight road game and have not looked good in their previous two, falling to Buffalo and New England by a combined score of 69-24. Miami's supposedly vaunted defense has looked awful this season while the offense continues to struggle. Philadelphia is home after a huge divisional win in Dallas. This is just Philly's fourth home game of the season and for one week the Eagles figured out their offensive woes. Dolphins’ offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will face off against Chip Kelly, for whom he worked with in Philadelphia (QBs coach) in 2013. The Eagles have covered just once in their last eight games after a victory over a divisional rival. They are 8-1 ATS the last three seasons in November.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.