Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 11 Picks and Odds

Who will handle the trip to Mexico City better, the Texans or the Raiders?

I guess I have to come to terms with the fact that Dallas is a good team. I've tried to fade the Cowboys several times this year and that has not worked out well for me. Their defense may not be great, but when you can run the ball and drain the clock, then you put less pressure on that side of the ball. I don't know if I'm ready to think that they are the best in the league, but I may have to stop trying to fade them... for one week.

 

Record: 9-21 (1-2 last week)

 

Teams on bye: Atlanta, Denver, New York Jets, San Diego

Note: All games are on Sunday, Nov. 20 unless otherwise noted and all times are ET.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) at Detroit Lions (5-4), 1 p.m.

Jacksonville may be well below .500 but statistically the Jaguars have one of the better defenses in the league. The Jags are allowing just 203.7 passing yards per game. Their secondary has done good work and the front seven puts pressure on QBs. Detroit is coming off its bye and has had an inconsistent offense. The Lions scored 75 points over a three-week span at home in wins over the Eagles, Rams and Redskins while putting up only 35 in their last two road contests. The good thing for Detroit is that top cornerback Darius Slay should play and he’ll help them cover the Jags WRs. Jacksonville has scored 22 points or less in five straight games. Detroit has gone under in 24 of its last 42 games. SELECTION: Under 47

 

Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3), 8:30 p.m.

The Redskins are looking for revenge after last year's home loss to the Packers in the playoffs. Washington is coming off a solid win over the Vikings and arguably has the better offense and defense entering this one. The Packers have been gashed defensively, allowing 111 points the last three weeks. Green Bay's offense has been throw, throw, throw and throw some more. Josh Norman should effectively shut down Jordy Nelson, so Aaron Rodgers’ other WRs will have to step up. Washington has shown a little bit of balance with Robert Kelley at RB and TE Jordan Reed out wide. I think the Skins are just playing better football. SELECTION: Redskins ML -140

 

Houston Texans (6-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (7-2), 8:30 p.m. (Mon., Mexico City)

This one is a neutral site game, so there’s no home-field advantage here. The Raiders are coming off a win over the Broncos followed by a much-needed bye week. They are cruising offensively, putting up more than 400 yards per game. They are facing a Houston squad that is allowing just 20.9 points per contest. The Texans’ problems are on offense where Brock Osweiler has been a disappointment. He has failed to crack the 200-yard mark in three straight games and four of the last five. The Raiders’ defense has improved, but this unit also has said its share of issues. Houston has covered in seven of its last nine November games. I think the Texans keep it close once again. SELECTION: Texans +6

 

Notes:

 

— I feel so uneasy taking the Giants on Sunday. They have won four straight, but almost every single game has been closer than it should have been. They beat the lowly Rams 17-10, but that was overseas. They nearly lost to the Eagles and kept things close with the Bengals as well. It is a short week for New York, which is usually something that keeps me off a team, but the Bears look lifeless. They have lost their best player, WR Alshon Jeffery, to a four-game suspension and Pro Bowl guard Kyle Long is done for the season after injuring his ankle. The Giants should roll at home, but for some reason I just can't pull the trigger.

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

Event Date: 
Wednesday, November 16, 2016 - 13:35

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