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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 11 Picks and Odds

Enjoy this fantastic slate of quarterback matchups!

It's going to be a great NFL Sunday with the likes of Brett Hundley, Blaine Gabbert, Tom Savage and DeShone Kizer starting under center. Thankfully, fresh blood in Jacksonville and New Orleans as well as Philadelphia and Los Angeles has helped bring buzz to the rest of the league. The “shield” could certainly use positive headlines with some of the stuff going on off the field.

 

When it comes to playing these games, there pretty much isn't a wager that you couldn't justify seeing as though almost everyone has been competitive at one point or another.

 

Record: 27-18-3 (3-3 last week; 18-11-2 last 6 weeks)

 

Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Nov. 19.

 

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) at New York Giants (1-8), 1 p.m.

The Chiefs are coming off their bye week and traveling to New York where the Giants continue to not show up week after week. The team seemingly has checked out on head coach Ben McAdoo, whose job still seems somewhat safe. New York allowed 31 points to an awful 49ers team last week after giving up 51 to the Rams at home. The good thing is that the Giants’ offense is showing a pulse as of late. Kansas City's defense is vulnerable in certain areas. I think the Chiefs spent the bye trying to figure out how Kareem Hunt will be used as he's tailed off big time since a hot start. The Giants have gone over in two straight and five of their last seven contests. I think this one is a bit higher scoring even if most of the points come from the Chiefs. SELECTION: Over 45

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-5), 1 p.m.

I'm a glutton for punishment for even looking at this game. This should have been the bye week for Miami and Tampa Bay, but Hurricane Irma took care of when the teams’ season opener was postponed. Both teams have been a huge disappointment, namely Jameis Winston struggling for the Bucs. Tampa won last week at home against the Jets because of a rare good effort by the defense. I don't know if that happens again against a Dolphins team that is on a short turnaround. They lost 45-21 at Carolina on Monday night and have now given up 72 points the last two weeks in prime time. Miami has hit the over in four straight while Tampa Bay has gone under in three straight. To me, this one is going to feature a lot of points as each team's defense has had issues. Tampa Bay has gone over the total in seven of its last eight when the number is between 35.5 and 42. SELECTION: Over 41

 

Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at Minnesota Vikings (7-2), 1 p.m.

This is a huge matchup in the NFC between surprising division leaders. Both teams have put up good defensive numbers but it’s the offenses that have opened some eyes. The Vikings are holding opponents to just 81.3 rushing yards per game, which will be important in stopping Todd Gurley. Gurley's success has helped Jared Goff, whose development is a big reason why the Rams are the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. Minnesota's run game has not failed as much as we thought when Dalvin Cook went down because Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have picked up the slack. Case Keenum (above, right) is playing good football, but there's also a chance we see Teddy Bridgewater, who is finally healthy and waiting in the wings. The Vikings have covered 17 of their last 22 home games and 29 of their last 42 overall. I guess it's weird to say considering they are 7-2, but I'm not sure if the Rams are for real. They've played a pretty easy schedule so far. I'll take the home team in this one. SELECTION: Vikings -2

 

Washington Redskins (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (7-2), 1 p.m.

The Redskins are a hard team to figure out. They went to Seattle two weeks ago and clamped down on the Seahawks holding them to just 14 points. Last week they scored 30 on a great Vikings defense, but allowed 38 in the process. I think we get a better effort from this defense this week, thanks to improved health. The health of the offensive line will be key moving forward, as Kirk Cousins needs time to throw given the struggles of the running game. The Saints’ have won seven games in a row, but have benefitted somewhat on the matchup front. The last four weeks have seen New Orleans face Brett Hundley, Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston (who got hurt and left the game early) and Tyrod Taylor/Nathan Peterman. I think the Saints are in for a tougher test against Cousins and may struggle some. Washington can shut down the run to try and force Drew Brees do a little more (which may or may not be a good thing). The Redskins are 17-12 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog. SELECTION: Redskins +8

 

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-6), 4:05 p.m.

The Bills benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman thinking that the rookie will be some sort of miracle worker and fix their issues as of late. Taylor is not the reason that the defense has been gashed. The acquisition of Kelvin Benjamin helped, but he’s still figuring out his role in this offense. The Chargers have dropped two in a row, but both were close games. They need to get Melvin Gordon going and I think it happens against a defense that has allowed more than 450 rushing yards the last two weeks alone. To me, this is a blowup spot for the home team who could take advantage of Buffalo team wondering exactly what the front office is doing. SELECTION: Chargers -4

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

Event Date: 
Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 13:42

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