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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 12 Picks and Odds


The NFL bye weeks are over so that situational plays go out the window. It's now a sprint to the end of the season with a lot of teams jockeying for position. Just like we all predicted, Kansas City came off its bye week and played horrendously against a Giants team who have mailed it in.

Todd Gurley: Flex Rankings Week 13

If you are still in your survival pool this week, then you've had incredible luck. The most important thing nowadays is to keep your eyes on the injury report and the weather forecast as both come into play even more.

Record: 31-19-3 (4-1 last week; 22-12-2 last 7 weeks)

Note: All games are on Sunday, Nov. 26 and times are ET.

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1), 1 p.m.

I'm going to go back to this well even though it didn't go well when the 49ers came to Philadelphia. The Eagles are coming off an emotional win in Dallas on Sunday night and are staring at a road trip that will take them to Seattle, LA and New York coming up. The problem with this is that the team is steamrolling the opposition on the scoreboard and against the spread. Chicago has lost three straight as the offense has bogged down with Mitchell Trubisky under center. He doesn't have weapons on the outside and teams are loading up against the run, which won't be an option against the Eagles. The Bears’ defense held New Orleans to 20 points on the road a couple of weeks ago. They've gone under in six of their nine games as an underdog. SELECTION: Under 44

Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-7), 1 p.m.

The Titans beat the Colts 36-22 just over a month ago at home. In that game they relied on the run game and racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. That started a four-game winning streak that came to a rather sudden end last time out vs. the Steelers. Tennessee's defense doesn't exactly scare me so I think Indianapolis should be able to put up some points against the Titans especially if Jacoby Brissett plays. The Colts’ offense has scored 60 points over their last three games. They need to score as their defense has been leaky at times especially against the pass following the parting of ways with Vontae Davis, far and away the team’s top cornerback. Marcus Mariota is getting healthier and that makes the Tennessee offense more explosive. The Titans have gone over in three straight and four of their last five. SELECTION: Over 44

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Los Angeles Rams (7-3), 4:25 p.m.

Last week we were on the Vikings, who exposed the Rams and this week I'm going to look at that same Los Angeles team to do the same to the Saints. New Orleans extended its streak to eight in a row after a come-from-behind victory at home over a banged-up Redskins squad. This Saints team saw their defense get beaten up and I think the Rams can do the same, especially with Todd Gurley (above, right) leading the way on the ground. New Orleans hasn’t necessarily faced a potent offense, which skews the defense’s statistics a bit. Give Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips some time to prep and he'll have a good game plan to counter Drew Brees and the Saints’ running game. Los Angeles has won four of its last five and I expect Gurley to be even more involved moving forward. I think the Rams hold serve at home in this one. SELECTION: Los Angeles -2.5

NFL Power Rankings: Rams

Denver Broncos (3-7) at Oakland Raiders (4-6), 4:25 p.m.

You can't get any lower on the Broncos, which is why I'll take a chance on them Sunday. Paxton Lynch is getting the start and he might be the best of the three options when it comes to Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler. I saw a stat on Twitter that said quarterbacks have a 113.2 passer rating when facing the Raiders this season. Oakland's defense has been terrible. The offense also has been inconsistent, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of the past seven games. Yes, Denver's defense has had a bad couple of weeks, but I still believe in this unit, for some reason. The Broncos also have won 16 of their last 26 straight up in Oakland. I think there's a chance they can do it again. SELECTION: Denver +5

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— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.