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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 16 Picks and Odds

Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo

We are getting towards the end of the NFL regular season when teams start to give up and it shows with the big spreads. I don't always love playing big numbers because it could come down to a team's backups at the end.

NFL Picks: Cowboys

We also have to take into account what is a catch as the non-catch by Jesse James denied bettors the Steelers moneyline win as well as the people who had the over. There has certainly been a lot of frustrating beats for people in this sport this season.

Record: 41-28-3 (2-3 last week)

Note: All games are on Sunday, Dec. 24 and times are ET.

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) at Tennessee Titans (8-6), 1 p.m.

I guess I shouldn't still be questioning the Rams, but I think the Titans are worth a look here. Tennessee's defense is holding opponents to 87.2 rushing yards per game so it might be tough sledding for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff has thrown for less than 250 yards in three straight and four of his last five games. This is a team also playing a third road game over the last four weeks and is coming off an emotional 42-7 win over the Seahawks in Seattle. Tennessee is at a low point with two straight losses to Arizona and San Francisco in which the Titans didn't show much of a pulse. That's why I think we're getting some value here considering the Titans are in the playoff mix and have the talent to keep this game close. This could be a flat spot for the Rams. SELECTION: Tennessee +7

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Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (10-4), 1 p.m.

Just two weeks ago we saw these two teams play on a Thursday night in Atlanta. That one went to the home team 20-17 in a game that saw the Saints’ prolific run game manage only 50 yards while Matt Ryan threw three interceptions and nearly blew it for his team. I expect to see a better effort from both sides in this one. These two have played 14 overs in their last 25 meetings in New Orleans. I expect the Saints to run the ball better and I expect or at least hope Ryan is better. The Falcons do have one less day to prepare for this one coming off their Monday night road win over the Buccaneers. New Orleans has scored 30, 34, 31 and 31 points its last four home games. The Saints have gone over in 15 of their last 23 inside Mercedes-Benz Superdome. This one will feature plenty of points. SELECTION: Over 52.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) at San Francisco 49ers (4-10), 4:05 p.m.

This is arguably one of the most intriguing games of the weekend. The 49ers are smoking hot having won three straight and four of their last five. San Francisco is getting solid play from Jimmy Garoppolo, who has infused some excitement into this offense. The defense also has held four straight opponents to less than 100 rushing yards as well as less than 250 through the air. The Jaguars have a big game next week at Tennessee and are coming off three straight home wins. Blake Bortles is in a good spot too right now with three straight solid efforts. The Jags have gone under in four of their six road games. San Francisco has gone under in eight of its last 13 games as an underdog. SELECTIONS: 49ers +4 & Under 42

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Seattle Seahawks (8-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6), 4:25 p.m.

Quite simply, this is a playoff elimination game and these two teams couldn't be going in more different directions. The Seahawks have lost two straight and are coming off an undressing at the hands of the Rams 42-7. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season and the once vaunted defense was sniping at each other through the media afterwards. Dallas, meanwhile, has won three straight and is getting a highly motivated Ezekiel Elliott (above, right) back from suspension. The defense has improved as linebacker Sean Lee has gotten healthier. The Seahawks are 10-14 ATS the last three seasons on the road. I think the Cowboys roll in this one. SELECTION: Cowboys -4.5

Dallas Cowboys 2019 Schedule

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.