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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 5 Picks and Odds

Jared Goff

Jared Goff

What's up is down in the NFL because as we all predicted the Rams would have one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league while the Patriots would have the worst defense. We also said that the Bills would be in first place in the AFC East at any point of the season while the Giants would still be looking for their first win. Of course, good old Cleveland is still bad and that's something we all agreed on.

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Record: 9-7-1 (2-2 last week)

Note: All times are ET and all games are Sunday, Oct. 8 unless otherwise noted.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-3), 1 p.m.

The Bills have been one of the best stories in football so far as they've already beaten the Broncos and Falcons. They are doing so with a mediocre offensive attack led by Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy. The defense has been fantastic despite the offseason moves. Cincinnati is coming off a road win at Cleveland and may have found an offensive spark. Joe Mixon is getting more work in the backfield and A.J. Green is getting more involved under the new OC. Cincy's defense has been fantastic this year with only one opponent throwing for even close to 300 yards. To me, we're giving a lot of respect to the Bills who are playing their third road contest over the last four weeks. I think the Bengals win this one by a touchdown or more. SELECTION: Bengals -3

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Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1), 1 p.m.

It's another week and another story involving Pittsburgh. This time it's Ben Roethlisberger kindly saying on the radio that Antonio Brown's antics are annoying at times. He didn't put it like that, but that was the gist of his statements. The Steelers are coming off of an emotional win against the archrival Ravens and have a road trip to Kansas City after this game. Sandwiched in the middle are the Jaguars, coming off an overtime loss to the Jets in a game where they allowed more than 400 yards. The Jags’ defense had been pretty solid for the most part this season. The ATS trends point heavily to a Pittsburgh win, but with all the stories surrounding this team and that showdown with the Chiefs looming, I'll take a shot that the Jags can cover this big number AND it goes under the total. SELECTION: Jaguars +9 & Under 44

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1), 4:05 p.m.

The Rams, as mentioned above, are putting up some awesome offensive numbers including 35.5 points per contest. The problem as I see it is that they've done it against some bad defenses – Indianapolis, Washington, San Francisco and Dallas. The Seahawks won't be as easy to move the ball on with their secondary and stiff pass rush. Seattle has held down every team other than Tennessee this season. The Seahawks’ problem has come on the offensive side of the ball, especially running the ball. Promising rookie Chris Carson is likely done for the season,  so it's back to Thomas Rawls, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise. The Rams have been gashed on the ground so we could see ball control from Seattle. These two teams have played three straight low-scoring games, but that was under a different LA coaching staff. The Rams have gone under in 21 of their last 36 games. SELECTION: Under 47

Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2), 4:25 p.m.

It's a rematch of last year's spectacular 34-31Divisional Round victory by the Packers on the road that sent the top-seeded Cowboys packing. Both quarterbacks had good games in that one and both could do so again. Dallas is coming off of a 35-30 home loss to the Rams despite rushing for a season-best 189 yards. Green Bay's defense has been fairly solid, other than in Week 2’s 34-23 road loss to Atlanta. The one thing we do know is that Aaron Rodgers will pick apart this banged-up Dallas secondary. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have had their fun in this series. These two have played 10 of their last 11 meetings to the over in Dallas. The Cowboys also have gone over in 11 of their last 19 home games. SELECTION: Over 52.5

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Houston Texans (2-2), 8:30 p.m.

Man, it's as if Deshaun Watson should have been starting all along. A fire has been lit under this Texans team and now the usually good defense has an offense to complement it. Houston blasted Tennessee 57-14 last week and has scored 90 points in its last two games. The Chiefs are coming off a hard-fought win at home Monday night and are dealing with a short turn around to play in Houston. Kansas City’s defense has been a bit more generous than the Texans’ and now must contend with a dual threat in Watson. Houston beat Kansas City at home last season, and that was with Brock Osweiler at quarterback. I think the Texans make it two in a row and take care of the last undefeated team in the league. SELECTION: Houston Pick

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Notes:

— The Jets are road favorites at the Browns and this is eerily similar to when Cleveland was a road favorite at Indianapolis. New York has two wins and the home team has none. I'm not falling for the trap of the Browns in a good situation again after they burned me last week. The problem is that there's no way that this Jets team should be a road favorite over anyone. To me, there's no wager on this game that makes me feel safe at all.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.