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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 6 Picks and Odds


It was a second straight winless week for me on the NFL side of the ledger, as I continue to be victim of late-game worthless touchdowns. This league has a way of humbling a gambler a bit. It's ironic because last year I was extremely hot on the pro side while I struggled in college football. At some point, my picks become fade material. It's just on you to decide when. I continue to remind you, that the chandeliers are really nice in Vegas for a reason.

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Record: 5-10 (0-3 last week)

Teams on bye: Minnesota, Tampa Bay

Note: All games on Sunday and times ET

Los Angeles Rams (3-2) at Detroit Lions (2-3), 1 p.m.

The Lions needed every break in the world to beat the Eagles last week and now they host the Rams. Detroit's offense has struggled due to it being so one-dimensional. Matthew Stafford is being asked to carry that group and he doesn't have Calvin Johnson to throw to anymore. The Rams' defense has been stellar, although Buffalo took advantage of an injury-depleted defensive line last week as LeSean McCoy and company rushed for 193 yards. Los Angeles’ defense has had to carry the load considering the offense has been terrible, averaging just 284.2 yards per game. The Rams have already won at Tampa Bay and Arizona and probably have a good shot to take this one as well. The Rams have gone under in 14 of their last 19 road games and 23 of their last 37 overall. To me, this game is shaping up to be a 17-13 kind of contest. SELECTION: Under 43

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Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1), 4:25 p.m.

Fading Atlanta is my target once again as the Falcons play their fourth road game in five weeks. I tried to beat them with the Broncos last week and somehow Denver struggled with the Falcons' defense. I don't believe Atlanta can do it on the side of the ball once again in Seattle. The Seahawks scored 64 points in their last two games before the bye and now should have a much healthier Russell Wilson at the helm. Seattle's defense has not allowed a single team to score more than 20 points so far this season. Take away Julio Jones and the Falcons’ WR corps isn't very good. You know that Pete Carroll saw how active Atlanta’s RBs were, especially in the passing game, against Denver last week and will figure out a way to defend that. The Seahawks have covered in 12 of their last 20 home games. I'll go back to the well and fade Atlanta. SELECTION: Seattle -6.5

NFL Power Rankings: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at Green Bay Packers (3-1), 4:25 p.m.

I'm sorry, I'm going back to fading the Cowboys once again. Dallas has been living pretty with Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, but the Packers have stonewalled run games, allowing just 42.8 yards per game on the ground. They are very vulnerable against the pass, but if Dez Bryant is out once again, I'm just not sure Dallas can take advantage. Green Bay's offense has struggled to get on track as Aaron Rodgers just doesn't seem like himself. The Packers are averaging just 209.8 yards per game through the air. Dallas has had its issues in the secondary and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb should be able to take advantage. Green Bay has covered 12 of its last 19 at home and 24 of its last 40 overall. Last year, the Pack beat Dallas 28-7 at home in Week 14. I think the Packers are due to explode offensively. SELECTION: Packers -4

NFL Power Rankings: Packers


— Based solely off situational plays, the Dolphins have to be on the radar. The problem is that Miami is so bad and this game will sound like a Steelers' home tilt. Pittsburgh has New England at home next week and that's going to be for AFC supremacy. If the Fins had shown any sort of pulse this season, I'd have made them an official play. Still, they have to be under consideration.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.