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Betting Against the Spread: NFL Week 7 Picks and Odds

Geno Smith

Geno Smith

It's time for your NFL Sunday fade material. When you go winless two straight weeks, then the picks you put up turn to mush. I have to stop trying to beat Dallas and Atlanta because they are just better then I think they are. The good handicappers stick to the numbers more then what they see. The key for you the reader right now is to decide if my logic is strong or if it's faulty and go against it.

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Record: 5-13 (0-3 last week)

Teams on bye: Carolina, Dallas

Note: All games are on Sunday unless otherwise noted and all times ET.

New York Giants (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-3), 9:30 a.m. (London)

This one is taking place across the pond and a wise man once told me that the better team wins overseas. To me, that's the Giants who have the better offense and a comparable defense. New York snapped a three-game losing streak last week in beating the Ravens behind nearly 400 passing yards from Eli Manning (and two long TDs from Odell Beckham Jr.). The defense clamped down on Baltimore's run game and made enough stops when it mattered. Los Angeles has lost two straight despite the fact that the Rams have perked up a bit offensively. I really don't believe in this offense outside of Todd Gurley. They also are banged up especially up front with Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers and William Hayes all dealing with various ailments. Los Angeles has covered in just 18 of its last 53 games against the NFC East. SELECTION: Giants ML -145

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NFL Power Rankings: Giants

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5), 1 p.m.

For the second straight week Baltimore will play in New York. The Ravens have lost three straight, including two at home. Baltimore's struggling to stop the pass, which the Jets should be able to do if they complete it to their own team. New York has a very good defense that was embarrassed by the Cardinals on Monday night. The Jets should be able to make Baltimore one-dimensional, which puts more pressure on Joe Flacco, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The Jets, meanwhile, are going to deal with a week's worth of questions after their fourth straight loss. They just finished up a tough stretch of four road games in five weeks with losses against the Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals. Joining Flacco in the ranks of the Ravens’ walking wounded are Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Jimmy Smith, C.J. Mosley and Steve Smith Sr. I'll take the team at home playing for pride right now even though I'm not thrilled it's Geno Smith now at quarterback for the J-E-T-S. SELECTION: Jets pick

NFL Power Rankings: Jets

Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3), 8:30 p.m.

There are things that just don't seem right with these two NFC West rivals. Carson Palmer has struggled this season with the passing attack, throwing just one touchdown pass against the Jets’ porous secondary on “Monday Night Football.” Luckily for the Cards, David Johnson (3 more TDs) continues to be a very good running back. Seattle's defense has been stellar all year, allowing just 78 points this season. The problems have been with the Seahawks’ offense, as some still don't think that Russell Wilson is 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals’ defense has allowed just 50 points in four home games thus far. They have all the right pieces to keep the Hawks in check in this one. Arizona has gone under in 14 of its last 21 home games including all four in 2016. I think this one is an under. SELECTION: Under 43.5


— It seems almost too easy to take the Bears on the road on Thursday night. Green Bay just doesn't seem right and neither will the run game without Eddie Lacy (or James Starks). Aaron Rodgers has not cracked the 300-yard mark this season and the Packers’ secondary has been ravaged by injuries. Yet Chicago's defense is hard to trust in its own right. Weird results happen on Thursday with that quick turnaround.

— The Dolphins continue the rare four straight at home with the Bills on Sunday. They are coming off a huge win over the Steelers so it's hard to back them in a potentially unfocused spot. The Bills are a road favorite, but they have a home tilt with the Patriots next and you know how Rex Ryan loves his battles with New England. I'd stay away from this one.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.