What does Christian McCaffrey’s return mean to the point spread and betting the 49ers?
San Francisco 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey made his much-anticipated return to practice this week and could play this Sunday. The reigning Offensive Player of the Year last played in February’s Super Bowl, while Achilles and calf injuries forced him to begin the season on the injured reserve.
In McCaffrey’s absence, third-year running back Jordan Mason has delivered beyond expectations. He ranks fourth in the NFL with 685 rushing yards, despite nursing a shoulder injury the last few weeks.
The injury bug has also extended to San Francisco’s wide receiver corpse. Brandon Aiyuk, who recently signed a four-year contract for $120 million, is out for the season with a torn ACL. Deebo Samuel has been dealing with rib and oblique injuries throughout the year. Plus, first-round draft pick Ricky Pearsall began the season on the IR after suffering from a gunshot wound but has returned to play the last two games.
The 49ers visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday as six-point road favorites. There is no official word on McCaffrey’s status after being limited in Wednesday’s practice. "If McCaffrey plays this weekend, he would move the line half a point. He will not be at 100%, so if he gives it a go, (Kyle) Shanahan and his staff would be inclined to limit his snap count,” Fanatics Sportsbook football trader Ethan Useloff said.
Typically only quarterbacks influence the point spread, given it is widely considered the most impactful position in all of sports. However, some non-quarterbacks do have a betting impact.
"Star backs like Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara are players who would impact the spread if they found themselves as a surprise inactive on gameday,” Useloff said. “However, these impactful players have varying effects on the spread, depending on factors such as the opponent's rush defense, the team's running back depth and the back's average snap count."
San Francisco began the season as the NFC betting favorite but is mired in an NFC West logjam. The entire division is separated by one game. The Arizona Cardinals sit in first place with a 5-4 record, while San Francisco and the Los Angeles Rams are tied with a 4-4 record and the 4-5 Seattle Seahawks are in last place.
The 49ers are the +130 favorite to win the division at DraftKings. They are the second favorite for the NFC with +550 odds, trailing only the Detroit Lions (+190). And they are the fifth favorite to win the Super Bowl with +1200 odds.