The Philadelphia Eagles signed not one, but two running backs on Thursday as DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews became the latest pieces added to Chip Kelly’s ever-changing puzzle. Combined with holdover Darren Sproles. Kelly definitely doesn’t lack for backfield options, but that is a good thing as it relates to each player’s fantasy value for 2015?
Consider that Murray led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,845 yards. He did that by carrying the ball a league-high 392 times. LeSean McCoy, who Kelly traded last week to Buffalo, led the Eagles with 1,319 yards on 312 carries. Sproles and Chris Polk, whose roster spot could now be in jeopardy, combined for another 501 yards on 103 carries.
Combined, Philadelphia running backs totaled 415 carries or just 23 fewer than Murray had by himself. While it’s a pretty safe bet that the Eagles will run the ball more than they did last season, it just doesn’t seem likely that Murray will come anywhere near to the 392 carries he had last season, not with Ryan Mathews and Sproles also capable of doing things with the football.
While Murray appears to be a good fit for Kelly’s offense, the reality is that there is no guarantee he will be the workhorse for the Eagles that he was for the Cowboys. Consider that McCoy saw his touches go down from 364 in 2013, when he led the league in rushing, to 340 last year. While that may not seem like a lot, his yards from scrimmage went down even more – from a league-best 2,146 in 2013 to 1,474 last season. And McCoy didn’t have a sidekick like Mathews, who rushed for 1,255 yards in 2013 with the Chargers, in the same backfield.
There’s also the matter of Philadelphia’s quarterback change, with Sam Bradford poised to replace the departed Nick Foles as the starter. Besides learning a new offense, Bradford has plenty of rust to shake off, as he’s played in just seven games in the last two seasons combined.
With all of this in mind, here’s the fantasy outlook for each Philadelphia RB as we look ahead to 2015:
Will still serve as the No. 1 back, but probably safer to assume a workload of around 325-350 carries, not 392. Also worth mentioning that he goes from one of the best offensive lines in the NFL to one that struggled at times last season. Kelly also is reportedly seeking to trade guard Evan Mathis, a two-time Pro Bowler and a very good run-blocker. Murray caught 57 passes last season, but don’t be surprised if that number is cut in half if not more because of Sproles’ presence.
2015 Outlook: From a no-questions-asked top-five option to a borderline top-10 RB with a fair amount of uncertainty attached. Reduced workload is all but a given, which not only impacts his yardage totals, but also could affect his scoring opportunities.
A little surprising that Mathews still signed with Philadelphia after Murray was reeled in. Instead of having the chance of being the No. 1 for another team, Mathews now is looking at a reduced workload, barring injury. Mathews also has had trouble staying on the field himself, as he’s played 16 games just once in his five-year career and was limited to eight last season.
2015 Outlook: Mathews’ role is the least defined at this point, but his versatility should get him some touches. That said, other than serving as Murray’s obvious handcuff (which can’t be overlooked given Murray’s injury history), it’s tough to gauge Mathews’ value given the uncertainly regarding workload. Right now, I would peg him in the RB3/flex territory.
Even with Murray and Mathews on board, Sproles’ role shouldn’t change that much. He ran the ball 53 times for New Orleans in 2013 and had 57 carries for Philadelphia last season. The more surprising statistic, however, was that his receptions plummeted from 71 with the Saints to just 40 with the Eagles. There’s really no reason to expect this to change, especially with the addition of Mathews, who has recorded 146 receptions in 62 career games. If anything, Sproles could see fewer touches on offense and instead serve as the primary kick returner.
2015 Outlook: Sproles was a disappointment for his fantasy owners last season and the new additions don’t exactly instill great hope for a huge rebound in 2015. At best, Sproles is a flex option with more value in PPR leagues and those that include special teams contributions in their scoring.