If my Week 4 daily fantasy football (DFS) picks are anything like my Week 3 picks, we should be in pretty good shape! I'll admit my Justin Herbert pick kind of fell short and unfortunately, I had way too much exposure to him this past weekend. However, I did still manage to make a profit based on the strength of my other picks. While others were touting the benefit of the Eagles offensive players, I went the other way.
And I will say that once again I like my DST picks for this week.
Wanna know who? You'll have to scan to the bottom or just take your time reading to see who my Week 4 DFS picks are.
Editor's note: This article was published before Newton was placed on the COVID-19/reserve list, meaning he is out for New England's game against Kansas City, which has been postponed and could be played Monday or Tuesday.
Safe Quarterback Week 4 Pick
Cam Newton, Patriots at Kansas City (DK $6400, FD $7900)
My original thought was Russell Wilson as a safe pick. But what happens if Seattle goes up big early on Miami by say 17 points and decides to run the ball the remainder of the game? However, we know that Kansas City can score quickly so the odds of the Patriots leaning on their running game most of the game is pretty slim. Yet, the Patriots' secondary is absolutely susceptible, so this game could become a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
All Newton has done this year is account for six touchdowns in three games with nearly 900 total yards of offense. Not too shabby! I'd like to see Newton do a little more with his arm than his legs. Still, with 35 rushing attempts already and not even a fourth of the way through the season, Newton brings an extremely high floor and this former MVP always has a high ceiling.
High Risk/Reward Quarterback Week 4 Pick
Joe Burrow, Bengals vs. Jaguars (DK $6300, FD $7400)
If at first you don't succeed with a rookie QB as a risky pick, try and try again, right? And that's what I am doing with Burrow this week. Of course the same could be said about Burrow himself. After a disastrous opening game, Burrow rebounded nicely with a combined 628 passing yards over the last two weeks.
And unlike the last two weeks, he'll be back home taking on the woeful Jaguars. Jacksonville is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs. Jacksonville has the second-highest fantasy points allowed per pass attempt, at .63. Burrow is averaging 47 pass attempts per game. Even if he only has 40 attempts, that's 24 points right there and doesn't include any of his rushing attempts. Burrow could easily be a borderline QB1 this week and comes in at a fraction of the cost.
Safe Running Back Week 4 Pick
Alvin Kamara, Saints at Lions (DK $8000, FD $8800)
There is not a lot to like at the top this week, especially since both Derrick Henry and James Conner will not be playing this weekend. Therefore, with at least two RBs spot to fill, I'm spending up to fill at least one. And I don't think I need to go into detail about why Kamara is amazing. But if you need a reason...
High Risk/Reward Running Back Week 4 Pick
Devin Singletary, Bills at Raiders (DK $5900, FD $6000)
Boy, that escalated quickly! Singeltary was priced outside of the top 25 running backs on both sites last week but saw his salary jump quadruple figures on DraftKings. I obviously like his value more on FanDuel, where his salary only went up $100.
With Josh Allen playing at another level right now, Singletary saw only 13 carries last week and Zack Moss could play this weekend. So there's some risk here. And while Singletary is not my favorite play this week, I definitely like his upside. The Raiders have allowed 133 fantasy points to running backs, which is the worst in the league. Even with the salary increase, I think Singletary provides a profit this week.
Safe Wide Receiver Week 4 Pick
Odell Beckham Jr., Browns at Cowboys (DK $5800, FD $6600)
Yes, Beckham had some back issues earlier in the week, but this is a spectacular matchup. Dallas has given up the second-most fantasy points to WRs this year and with Landry still not 100 percent, expect Beckham to continue to embarrass the Dallas secondary. He has done it plenty of times before, including the catch for which he might be best known.
High Risk/Reward Receiver Week 4 Pick
Will Fuller, Texans vs. Vikings (DK $5900, FD $6100)
Fuller missed some practice time earlier this week because of a hamstring issue, but he was a full participant on Friday and isn't listed on the final injury report. Whether he's 100 percent remains to be seen and we know that Fuller can often be a feast-or-famine player. So you know the risk.
But Houston might finally have a matchup they are favored to win! And it's a nice matchup for Fuller with Minnesota allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs. He was targeted five times last week and I would be shocked if he doesn't nearly double that number against the Vikings.
Safe Tight End Week 4 Pick
Mark Andrews, Ravens at Washington (DK $6000, FD $7400)
I absolutely love the ceiling on Andrews this week. A three-touchdown game would not surprise me. However, Andrews' talent and matchup alone give him a pretty high floor this week as well. He's obviously a little bit off his 10-TD pace of last year, but I'd bet on him scoring this weekend. Washington has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs so far this season. And that was with Chase Young, who will definitely be missed by the Washington defense.
High Risk/Reward Tight End Week 4 Pick
Austin Hooper, Browns at Cowboys (DK $4000, FD $5100)
Hooper is seeing his targets/catches/yards go up each week so far this season. Hooper got off to a somewhat slow start last year also and then rattled off four straight games with a touchdown. Wouldn't it be nice to get that from him while he's still priced like a mid-level TE2? And as I've said multiple times, much of this stack is about the matchup. Despite all the fantasy points the Dallas secondary is giving up to QBs and WRs, they are still giving up the ninth-most to TEs too!
Safe Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 4 Pick
Ravens at Washington (DK $4000, FD $5000)
They're the most expensive for a reason. I don't think they will be the highest-scoring defense this weekend. But the Ravens do come into this game with a very nice ceiling (They are averaging the second-best FPPG of any DST) but what's the floor for this unit? That too is pretty high and if you're willing to pay the premium, do so.
High Risk/Reward Defense/Special Teams (DST) Week 4 Pick
Chargers at Buccaneers (DK $2900, FD $4300)
I'll admit it, I like to wager against Tom Terrific. And that's the rub in picking the Chargers this week. But do you realize how good this defense has been? In Week 2, they gave up 23 points to the Chiefs, which is extremely impressive. In their two other games, they gave up a combined 34 points. That's pretty good. They haven't had a lot of turnovers this year, but I think natural regression sees a couple fall their way this weekend. When you can get a team as talented as this one at these prices, you had best consider it.
— Written by Mark Strausberg, a member of the Athlon Network Contributor, who despite his youthful exuberance and good looks has been playing fantasy sports before Wildcats or Hoosiers even made it to VHS. Got a fantasy sports question or thought? Hit him up on Twitter @MarkStrausberg.
(Top photo by Sara Schmidle, courtesy of buffalobills.com)