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Examining the Early Over/Under 2016 NFL Win Totals


The NFL offseason cycle continues as we head towards rookie minicamps, OTAs and other workouts. Free agency and the draft are done so we have an idea of what rosters will look like for the most part. The schedules also have been released so it's a good time to check out some win totals.

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Related: 10 Must-See Games in the 2016 NFL Season

The Westgate put out its best guesses on win totals for the 2016 season and there are some definite ones to take a look at. Of course, there's still a long time to go before Week 1 so things can change, but that doesn't mean we can't take advantage of some values.

Arizona Cardinals (Over 10 EVEN)

Opponents’ 2015 Record: 53.1% (T-7th)

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Analysis: The NFC West is always a tough division so that's probably why on face value we're getting a solid price on the over. Arizona's season-opening contest against New England now most likely will not include Tom Brady. As I referenced in my earlier article about strength of schedule, the Cardinals play five of their first eight at home giving them a chance to start off strong. The defense will be nasty if Tyrann Mathieu comes back from his torn ACL even close to 100 percent and if first-round pick Robert Nkemdiche can contribute at all. The caveat here is keeping Carson Palmer upright and healthy. A full season of David Johnson will do wonders in accomplishing that.

Baltimore Ravens (Over 8.5 EVEN)

Opponents’ 2015 Record: 48.4% (T-19th)

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Analysis: The Ravens had awful luck with injuries last year, but are continuing to add some talent to an already solid nucleus. Many people loved what Baltimore did in the draft and the Ravens get a chance for a fast start with one playoff team in their first seven weeks. They have some friendly stretches before finishing out with the Patriots, Steelers and Bengals. With better health and a fast start, this team should go over the total. I don't recommend this one as much if the price is not in our favor.

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Cincinnati Bengals (Under 9.5 +110)

Opponents’ 2015 Record: 46.5% (T-27th)

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Analysis: The Bengals have some holes that they need to fix. Losing wide receivers Marvin Jones and Mohamad Sanu don't seem large on the surface, but this puts more pressure on A.J. Green and Andy Dalton to succeed. The opponents’ record number says that it's an easier slate, but as I mentioned above, I expect an improved Ravens team as well as a tougher time with the NFC East than previously thought. The defense won't have Vontaze Burfict early and I'm just not buying the Bengals right now. I'm also buying into the value of +110 for this one.

Cleveland Browns (Under 4.5 +130)

Opponents’ 2015 Record: 48.0% (21st)

Analysis: This is simply a value play right here because there's a very good chance that Cleveland could be the worst team in the league. Not only that, the Browns have five of their first seven on the road and the names competing at quarterback don't exactly inspire much confidence. The offense should get a boost from first-round pick Corey Coleman at wide receiver, but it still figures to be struggle to move the ball and score enough points to win many games, especially against a tough schedule. With a price like this, I have no problem taking a flier on it.

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Win totals aren't the only thing out right now as Bovada put out some rookie props that have some tastiness to them. The book is under-selling Ezekiel Elliott as they have Dallas’ new running back for just 900 yards and 7.5 touchdowns. To me, Elliott is a slam dunk to go over that number because of his very good offensive line and other weapons to keep teams honest. I think the over should be good on touchdowns, but I'm more confident about the yards.

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There are two schools of thought to the Jared Goff wager with one being he's going to stink, not get a lot of help and easily go under the number. The other side is that the team will be behind often giving him more chances to add to that total. Last year, Nick Foles, Case Keenum and Sean Mannion accounted for just 11 touchdowns through the air. The lean here is to the under.

Finally, offensive rookie of the year doesn't seem like much of a race with Elliott and Goff leading the way. To me, it's really Elliott's to lose as he's going to get the most usage of anyone. If there is a sleeper it could be Corey Coleman (+750) or Kenneth Dixon (+1400). Coleman's going to get a ton of targets in Cleveland while Dixon could win the job at RB in Baltimore. In the end, I'd go Elliott and salvage any value there may be to that pick.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.