Examining the Early Over/Under 2018 NFL Win Totals

It's never too early to put some money down on NFL win totals

Denver Broncos LB Von MillerIt's early May but it’s never too early to talk NFL. Even though the start of the 2018 regular season isn’t until September, the Las Vegas SuperBook recently released their win totals. There are several things to consider when looking at these numbers. First off, most of the moves are done for the teams outside of injuries and maybe a stray free-agent signing here and there, so what you see with these teams is what you get.

 

Next, you have to decide if you want to tie up your money through December because that's when the bet could be settled. That said, there's some value out there because Vegas is either overrating or underrating certain teams. With that, let's take a look at some of the wagers that I'd consider throwing some money down on.

 

New York Giants (Over 6.5 wins)

New York had a pretty good draft and upgraded the weapons around Eli Manning, including beefing up the offensive line. The addition of Nate Solder is going to be very beneficial and will at least keep pass rushers off Manning from the left side. Outside of the NFC East, the Giants host the likes of Tampa Bay and Chicago and will play at San Francisco after a bye week. To me, Manning will have a better season than he did last year because of Saquon Barkley and the urgency that comes with the drafting of his potential replacement, Kyle Lauletta. I think the over is worth a look with the Giants.

 

Dallas Cowboys (Under 8.5 wins)

Dallas lost two huge pieces to its offense in Jason Witten and Dez Bryant and while the latter wasn't what he used to be, he still demanded defenses pay attention to him. Now the Cowboys are going to a committee approach at tight end and will turn to Allen Hurns out wide. This is a very tough schedule with road trips to Carolina, Seattle and Atlanta outside of the NFC East. The division also is playing the AFC South, a group of teams that seem to be improving. Dallas’ defense could continue to improve, but it still doesn’t scare anyone. This has the makings of a seven- or eight-win team.

 

Denver Broncos (Over 7 wins)

I think Denver can give it one more run with its aging defense and Case Keenum under center. There won't be a quarterback controversy in the Mile High City, which I think will help the team focus on the field and not have to be looking to the sidelines to wonder if the answer at QB is there. Denver has four of its first six at home so they can get off to a good start. I know this is an older team, but the talent is still there and if the Broncos can get these early wins, then I think they'll be a factor in the AFC West. I realize how good the Chargers and Chiefs will be, but there's a chance that Denver could be better than Oakland.

 

Tennessee Titans (Under 8 wins)

Every year there is a playoff team or two that takes a step back. I think Tennessee is one of those as the Titans have seen an upgrade to their schedule. Getting the NFC East will be tough with the Redskins and Giants improving. Houston is going to be better if J.J. Watt and Deshaun Watson stay healthy while Indianapolis could be a wild card if Andrew Luck returns and discovers his Pro Bowl form quickly. The schedule upgrades mean that there are fewer layups for Tennessee. The defense is improving, but I don't know if the offense can score enough. It'll be an interesting team to watch come training camp.

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

Event Date: 
Friday, May 4, 2018 - 13:09

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