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Examining the Over/Under 2015 Win Totals for the AFC South

Andrew Luck

Andrew Luck

Let's get this out of the way right now... the Colts are going to win the AFC South title once again in 2015. It's a combination of Indy being that good and the rest of the division being that bad. That said, the Jags are building something nice and the Titans hope that Marcus Mariota is a franchise-changer.

Much like I did with the college football win totals, I will break down the schedules in terms of home and road opponents outside the division. In most situations, I'll give a split to each team in divisional play with them winning at home and losing on the road. Vegas is much more on the ball in the NFL compared to college football so the numbers are a lot sharper.

Note: Over/under odds courtesy of 5Dimes Sportsbook

AFC South

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Houston Texans

(Over 8.5 wins -135, Under 8.5 wins +115)

Record Last Year: 9-7

Offense: Once again there is uncertainty at quarterback with Houston. The Texans appear set to go from Ryan Fitzpatrick to either Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett under center. This is a battle to watch all training camp, although neither will cause me to change my prediction on this team. They will rely as always on Arian Foster, who continues to amaze at running back. Andre Johnson is no longer streaking down the sidelines so that means it's DeAndre Hopkins leading the way. Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington and rookie Jaelen Strong will add WR depth.

Defense: J.J. Watt has a new best friend in Vince Wilfork. The ex-Patriot should be able to clog up the middle for Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, who didn't really get the chance to show much in his rookie season. The secondary is stout with Jonathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson and rookie Kevin Johnson out of Wake Forest.

Schedule: Houston has one of the later byes in Week 9. The Texans' worst stretch is probably Weeks 13-15 when they play at Buffalo, host New England and travel to Indy. It's a quick turnaround for their home game against the Colts in October because it comes four days after a road game at the Falcons.

Prediction: Slight lean to the under although I'm not that confident in that. The quarterback uncertainty isn't good and nor is my confidence that Arian Foster will play all 16 games. The defense will keep them in a lot of games, but the offense will struggle at times.

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Indianapolis Colts

(Over 10.5 wins -165, Under 10.5 wins +145)

Record Last Year: 11-5

Offense: There aren't enough words for how awesome Andrew Luck has been in so far in his career. Look for those numbers to go up even more this year as the team added a couple of WRs to help. Andre Johnson brings a veteran presence while first-round pick Phillip Dorsett brings the speed. When Indy decides to run the ball, Luck will hand off to Frank Gore, who figures to take over the carries from Trent Richardson (now in Oakland).

Defense: It's this side of the ball that experienced more losses this offseason. Leaving are Ricky Jean-Francois, LaRon Landry, Cory Redding and Sergio Brown. Trent Cole is a nice pick up to play linebacker for the Colts. The CBs are decent with Greg Toler and Vontae Davis. Getting pressure on the quarterback could be an issue at times.

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Schedule: Indy also has a late bye, getting its breather in Week 10. After that time off, the Colts travel to Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Jacksonville in a four-week span. The Colts get three of four games at home in late October into early November, hosting the Patriots, Saints and Broncos.

Prediction: The over is the play here although not at that price. It's a foregone conclusion that the Colts win at least three of their four games against the Titans and Jaguars, neither of which are ready for primetime. The question becomes when do they clinch the division and do they rest their stars.

Jacksonville Jaguars

(Over 5.5 wins -145, Under 5.5 wins +125)

Record Last Year: 3-13

Offense: Year two of Blake Bortles figures to produce better results compared to his rookie season. Bortles showed flashes of both brilliance and struggles, so the hope this season is for more consistency and fewer turnovers. The Jags improved his offensive line adding former Cowboy Jermey Parnell. The team also gave its young quarterback a legitimate weapon in tight end Julius Thomas, who thrived catching passes from Peyton Manning the past two seasons. Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee will all have to show some improvement in their second year.

Defense: Absolutely awful news for this side of the ball when No. 3 overall pick Dante Fowler got hurt in offseason workouts. This unit is on its way to being respectable. They finished with the sixth-most sacks in the NFL and can point to Chris Clemons and Sen'Derrick Marks. Middle linebacker Paul Posluszny needs to play all 16 games in 2015 after missing half of last year with a torn chest muscle.

Schedule: Jacksonville's road games are grouped for the most part. The Jaguars play at New England, at Indianapolis and at Tampa Bay Weeks 3-5. The Jags also have a London trip against the Bills on Oct. 25. The friendliest home stretch is from Weeks 11-15 when they are home four times in five contests.

Prediction: While this is an improving squad, the under is still the play. This might be the most unfriendly schedule in the NFL. There will be some great times for the Jags, who are still growing, but there will be some ugly efforts against some of the better teams in the league.

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Tennessee Titans

(Over 5.5 wins -105, Under 5.5 wins -115)

Record Last Year: 2-14

Offense: With No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota finally signed, the starting quarterback job appears to be his to lose during training camp. By accounts, he's impressed in offseason workouts. Former Falcon Harry Douglas comes over to help Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker serve as weapons for the Heisman Trophy winner. The running game is a question mark with Bishop Sankey and rookie David Cobb likely to share carries in some fashion.

Defense: Tennessee addressed this side of the ball with the additions of Perrish Cox and Brian Orakpo. Jurrell Casey was a disruptor up the middle with five sacks in 2014. Michael Griffin is a solid veteran in the secondary.

Schedule: The Titans have their first two games on the road before four straight home dates with a bye interspersed. They don't leave Tennessee from Sept. 27 to Oct. 25. Tennessee plays three of its last four games on the road against possible playoff teams in the Jets, Patriots and Colts.

Prediction: The under is the play here. This is a squad with a rookie quarterback and a mediocre run game. That means the Titans will have to rely on Mariota's arm, which is not the way to go in his first season. There's improvement coming, but it's not going to be until 2016 or '17.

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.