(Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)
The Falcons Blew It With the Kirk Cousins Deal, But They're Avoiding Sunk-Cost Fallacy
It all seemed so simple at the time.
The Atlanta Falcons hadn't been quarterback-relevant since Matt Ryan's salad days coming into the 2024 season, so general manager Terry Fontenot and his staff doubled down in free agency and the draft. They signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed, and they then selected Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick.
The idea was to have Cousins excel immediately, while setting Penix up for the kind of succession plan the Green Bay Packers successfully utilized in their transitions from Brett Favre to Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love. The Falcons had no such plan post-Ryan, and they wanted to avoid that issue again.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Cousins part of the equation didn't work out. The veteran never looked comfortable in Zac Robinson's offense, he was clearly still struggling with lower-body injuries from 2023 that limited his functional mobility, and he was benched following a Week 15 game against the Las Vegas Raiders in which he completed 11 of 17 passes for 112 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 78.6. In his final five games as a starter, Cousins completed 99 of 158 passes for 1,180 yards, one touchdown, nine interceptions, and a passer rating of 63.8.
By then, it was past time to move on from Cousins in-season, and it could credibly be argued that the Falcons waited too long to do so. Perhaps if they had gone to Penix a couple games earlier, they wouldn't have suffered a 1-4 record during Cousins' precipitous backslide, and they'd be a playoff team now — as opposed to looking back with an 8-9 record and wondering where it all went wrong.
Because Penix proved very quickly that he was far more able to take command of Atlanta's offense, and that should prove itself out in 2025 and beyond. There is now no question that Penix is the starter, even though the Falcons are on the hook for far too much money to release Cousins in the new league year. A $65 million dead cap hit wouldn't help much in the rebuilding process.
End-of-season press conferences are occasions for reflection, and Fontenot had his on Thursday, where he addressed the Cousins situation in detail.
"We gave Kirk Cousins two years guaranteed," Fontenot said of Cousins' contract. "So when you do that, you expect to get high-level quarterback play for two seasons. We understand that that didn't happen. Nobody was happy to make the switch at that time. And we wanted [to] get that high-level quarterback play for two seasons. So now what happens is we had to accelerate that plan and go to Mike earlier.
"And yet the allocation at the quarterback position... we're eighth[-highest] in the league. That's what we had planned for where Kirk is the starter. He's not the starter anymore, but we're very comfortable moving forward with him as a backup.
"He's handled himself extremely well through the entire process from start to finish, from when he came in the building. And, you know, in these adverse situations, that's when you show your true character. Kirk's a great man, and he's been great support for Mike, a great teammate, great support for everybody in the building.
"So we're very comfortable moving forward with him as the backup."
It's not as if they have a choice. Cousins has a no-trade clause in his contract, and it's highly doubtful that any team would want to trade any assets for his contract and performance. The Falcons made a mistake, the returns were not what they saw coming, and their only option now is to avoid the sunk-cost fallacy that many teams enter into when it comes to overpriced quarterbacks who can't live up to their contracts for whatever reason. You do not want to insist that the highly-priced guy is the better option simply because you don't want to admit that you were wrong in your process.
(Yes, we're talking about you, Cleveland Browns.)
So, when the Falcons go into the 2025 season with their succession plan turned on its head, at least give them credit for understanding what was best for the team, taking their medicine with the obvious mistake, and moving on to the future without a defined answer at football's most crucial position.
The delusional alternative can ruin a team for years.
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