New York Giants vs. Baltimore Ravens Preview and Prediction

The New York Giants will try and keep their playoff hopes alive by handing the Baltimore Ravens a fourth straight defeat when they meet at 4:25 p.m. ET this afternoon on FOX. The defending Super Bowl champion Giants (8-6) must rebound from last week’s disheartening 34-0 loss in Atlanta if they want to have any chance at a possible repeat, while the Ravens (9-5) would like to turn things around in their quest to win a second straight AFC North crown.

When the New York Giants have the ball:
New York’s offense is sixth in the NFL in scoring at 26.6 points per game and 10th in total offense at 364.6 yards per game. The Giants have been fairly balanced on offense, ranking ninth in passing (249.6 ypg) and 15th in rushing (115 ypg). The ground game has been a collaborative effort, as running back Ahmad Bradshaw leads the way with 869 yards rushing, but his inability to stay on the field has presented opportunities to both Andre Brown and rookie David Wilson. Brown, who has a team-high eight rushing touchdowns, broke his leg in Week 10 and won’t be eligible to return until the Super Bowl, if the Giants even make it that far. Wilson has been productive (155 yards rushing last two games) after finally receiving sustained playing time, and he and Bradshaw could provide a productive one-two punch out of the backfield. That would be a huge help to quarterback Eli Manning, who has struggled at times during the season and has just 20 touchdown passes compared to 15 interceptions. Manning has several legitimate weapons in wide receivers Victor Cruz (79-1,019-9), Hakeem Nicks (53-692-3) and tight end Martellus Bennett (five TD catches). They just haven’t been able to do as much damage this season compared to last year when Manning had nearly 5,000 yards passing, 29 touchdowns and only 16 picks. The offensive line has done its job keeping Manning’s jersey clean, allowing a league-low 16 sacks, and other than the interceptions, the team has fumbled it away just six times. Turnovers have not been a big issue, as the team’s +13 differential between giveaways and takeaways ranks fourth overall.

Baltimore’s defense has not been nearly as stout this season as it has in the past. The Ravens, one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses for years, ranks just 26th in total defense, as the unit has given up nearly 375 yards per game. It has done a good job of mitigating the damage, as they are allowing less than 22 points per contest, which places them 13th in the league in that category. The Ravens have been susceptible to both the run (132.2 ypg, 26th) and pass (242.1 ypg, 22nd), as injuries have resulted in several key players, such as Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Lardarius Webb, missing a significant number of games. They are in the middle of the pack when it comes to sacks (32) and have forced a total of 25 (13 INTs, 12 fumbles) turnovers. One other interesting stat to note: the Ravens are tied for first in the NFL in fewest touchdown passes allowed with 13, but 26th in rushing scores surrendered (14).

When the Baltimore Ravens have the ball:
Baltimore’s offense has had its share of ups and downs throughout the season, one of the reasons why offensive coordinator Cam Cameron was recently relieved of his duties. The Ravens are 21st in the NFL in total offense (339.6 ypg) and 12th in scoring (24.9 ppg). They rank 22nd in rushing offense (105.1 ypg), as Ray Rice has surpassed 1,000 yards for the fourth straight season. Baltimore is 14th in passing offense (234.6 ypg) with quarterback Joe Flacco throwing twice as many touchdowns (20) as interceptions (10). Wide receiver Torrey Smith is the team’s deep threat (17.4 ypc, seven TDs), but he needs to be more consistent on a week in, week out basis. Fellow wideout Anquan Boldin is a reliable target for Flacco, as is Rice out of the backfield, while tight end Dennis Pitta is tied with Smith for the team lead in touchdown catches with seven. The offense has done its part in holding on to the ball, as the team has turned it over just 15 times (third-fewest in AFC) so far.

New York’s defense has been fairly generous this season as it applies to yards allowed, but that hasn’t been the case when it comes to the story on the scoreboard. The Giants rank near the bottom (28th) in total defense at 377.4 yards per game, but are 12th in scoring defense, allowing less than 22 points per contest. Unfortunately, over its last three games, wins over Green Bay and New Orleans and a significant loss to Washington, this unit has seen its yards allowed average to rise to 417 per game. The passing defense (253.7 ypg) has been the biggest culprit and scapegoat this season, but the rushing defense (123.7 ypg, 22nd) has had its own issues. The key for this defense has been in keeping opponents out of the end zone and generating turnovers. Even with all of the yards gained against them, the Giants have yielded just eight rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth-fewest in the NFL) and only 23 touchdown passes. The defense is in the middle of the pack when it comes to sacks (32, tied for 16th), but this unit has forced the third-most turnovers (34) and also is third in the league in interceptions with 20.

Key Factor:
Both New York and Baltimore could really use a win here, but for entirely different reasons. The Giants need a victory just to stay alive in the NFC East race, as the defending Super Bowl champions find themselves looking up at both the Redskins and Cowboys with just two games remaining. The Ravens have already clinched a playoff spot, but still have business to take care of to wrap up a second straight AFC North title, and also just need to win to put an end to their current three-game losing streak. The Giants have been in this situation before, as they needed to win their final two games last season just to make the playoffs as the NFC East champions, so this is really nothing new to this veteran team. The Ravens have plenty of experience of their own, but appear to be a team finding its way, especially on offense. That’s never a good sign, but especially this late in the season. So even though the Giants are on the road and have their backs to the wall, I think the reigning champs find a way to get it done against the Ravens, as Eli Manning and the passing attack leads the way to victory. Rookie David Wilson also chips in with a key kickoff return at some point in the second half to set up a critical scoring drive as well.

Prediction:
Giants 27, Ravens 23