NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) Week 10

New Orleans has been rolling but this week a road-heavy schedule may catch up to the Saints against the Bengals

Over halfway through the NFL season and it's hard to believe that the same game was being played in New Orleans that was played in Miami last week. The Saints looked incredible in their win over the Rams while the Patriots took care of another high-profile opponent, this time the Packers. Keep in mind when handicapping these games that situational plays will continue to pop up so you have to take advantage of them.

 

Record: 26-16-2 (53-32-3 last year)

 

Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Nov. 11

 

Here are this week's best NFL picks against the spread:

 

Buffalo Bills (2-7) at New York Jets (3-6), 1 p.m.

The Jets shouldn't be touchdown favorites over anyone. They've lost three straight and six of their last eight games. The Jets will be starting Josh McCown with Sam Darnold dealing with a foot injury. Oddly, this probably makes some people want to back the Jets more. Now, Buffalo has scored just 33 points over its last four games and a lot of that is because Nathan Peterman is the worst quarterback to ever put on the jersey. The team's defense has played very well for the most part, but they are being put in the worst positions. There's a chance that Josh Allen plays in this one and if not him then hopefully Derek Anderson. Heed me when I say the quarterback is the most important factor here (see below). SELECTION: Bills +7*

 

New Orleans Saints (7-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-3), 1 p.m.

The Saints are the talk of the NFL after their home win over the Rams. And now they have added Dez Bryant to what was an already potent offense. Last week, New Orleans jumped out to a big lead then held on somewhat at the end to get the win. This is the Saints' fifth road game in the last seven total so who knows if there will be any lingering effects because of all of the travel. This also is an epic sandwich game for New Orleans with the defending Super Bowl champions coming to the Big Easy next week. I'm not a huge fan of the Saints' defense, but I don't know if the Bengals can take advantage without A.J. Green. Cincinnati's offense will have to get back to the attack that scored 37 points on Tampa Bay and Atlanta. The Bengals have had their bye week to prepare some stuff and John Ross might be able to play in this one. Cincinnati's defense scares me, but really I just think this is too perfect a situation for the home team with New Orleans possibly struggling with its focus. SELECTION: Bengals +6

 

Detroit Lions (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-3), 1 p.m.

These two teams will play twice in an 11-day span. The Lions have lost two straight and three of their last five as the offense has bottomed out a bit. They scored just 23 points the last two weeks against the Seahawks and Vikings. The subtraction of Golden Tate is a big one and the offensive line had a terrible time trying to block Minnesota (10 sacks allowed). Chicago's offense is scoring points, yet the yardage hasn't been staggering. I still don't trust Mitchell Trubisky, who doesn't have a ton of weapons to throw to. I do love the Bears' defense and think they will put the clamps down on the Lions in this one. The Bears have gone under in 22 of their last 40 including 17 of their last 28 against NFC opponents. SELECTION: Under 45 

 

Seattle Seahawks (4-4) at Los Angeles Rams (8-1), 4:25 p.m.

The other half of last week's big game also is in an epic sandwich situation as the Rams take on the Seahawks. Los Angeles lost a heartbreaker to the Saints in New Orleans and has a HUGE matchup with the Chiefs in Week 11 in Mexico City. Many have tabbed that as a Super Bowl preview. Seattle lost to the Rams at home back on Oct. 7 33-31 in a game that saw the Seahawks keep up on the scoreboard despite giving up a ton of yards. Seattle has been a tough team to figure out, as evidenced by last week's 25-17 home loss to the Chargers. The emphasis on getting back to running the football has paid off and the defense has held its own for the most part, but the record shows a .500 team. Los Angeles' defense needs to play better if the Rams hope to go far in the playoffs. To me, this one should be closer than the double-digit spread. I can't imagine that the Rams are 100 percent focused for this despite the loss last week. SELECTION: Seahawks +10

 

*This is a situational pick ONLY if someone other than Nathan Peterman starts at quarterback for the Bills.

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

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