Is it time to bet big on the Browns?
There were a number of road underdogs who came through in a pinch last weekend but Week 12 of the NFL season sees plenty of even matchups and only two games with lines of greater than a field goal. Such parity typically produces some wacky results... unless you know which way the sharp money needs to go.
Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Nov. 24.
Here are this week's best NFL picks against the spread:
Denver Broncos (3-7) at Buffalo Bills (7-3), 1 p.m.
The Broncos had an epic collapse against the Vikings last week but even with snatching a defeat from the jaws of victory, the fairly impressive showing for a team with just three wins has inspired plenty of confidence leading into another big road test. That's one reason why the line in this one is a little closer than you would expect given the records that are flipped coming in. The Broncos have done a ton of traveling recently and are really beat up on the offensive line, which is not what you want to do when facing this Bills defense and a far more confident offense coming off an easy win at Miami. The Pick: Buffalo -3.5
Miami Dolphins (2-8) at Cleveland Browns (4-6), 1 p.m.
The 'Fins have looked improved in recent weeks but they've done so against several offenses that can be considered questionable at best. Cleveland hasn't been stellar by any stretch but the Browns have the weapons to put up points in a hurry and they come in plenty motivated after the way things went down on Thursday night. Cleveland and a big number is normally a bit of a risk but don't discount it in this case given the way these two teams are playing right now. The Pick: Cleveland -10
Detroit Lions (3-6) at Washington Redskins (1-9), 1 p.m.
The Lions' defense is among the worst in the NFL, which would likely make them ripe for the picking even with a rookie quarterback if not for the fact that it's Washington next on the docket. Matt Patricia's team likely won't have Matthew Stafford again but seemed decent enough offensively against Dallas last week to go into FedEx and leave with a comfortable win against a team in disarray. The Pick: Detroit -3.5
Seattle Seahawks (8-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5), 1 p.m. ET
Pete Carroll's team is 5-0 on the road this year and has the added benefit of coming off a bye, meaning that whole travel across the country issue isn't quite the issue some think it is. Neither defense is that remarkable but what the Seahawks have going for them is a decent enough pass rush behind Jadeveon Clowney. With Lane Johnson likely out for Philly, Clowney could have a field day against an offense that has been stuck in neutral most of the year. The Pick: Seattle -1
Last Week: 4-0
— Written by Bryan Fischer, an award-winning college football columnist and member of the Athlon Contributor Network. You can follow him from coast-to-coast on Twitter, Instagram and Snapchat at @BryanDFischer.