NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) Week 7

More winners for this Sunday's NFL slate

It's Week 7 of the NFL and we're almost at the halfway point of the season. There are a lot of teams that we've got pegged as to whether or not they are good, but many others fluctuate wildly between competent and not. These lines will start to get tighter and tighter out of Vegas so we'll see if we can continue to pick out a few winners for you.

 

Record: 19-10-2 (53-32-3 last year)

 

Note: All times are ET and all games are on Sunday, Oct. 21.

 

Here are this week's best NFL picks against the spread:

 

Tennessee Titans (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (4-2), 9:30 a.m. (London)

The London game has seen several unders in its past including the one last week where Seattle beat Oakland 27-3. Last year four of the losing teams in the overseas games scored fewer than 10 points. The Titans' offense has struggled terribly as of late without a solid run game and a terrible offensive line. The good thing is that the defense has been good. I think they can match up alright with the Chargers' offense. I also think Los Angeles can get quite a few sacks and will harass Marcus Mariota into some struggles of his own. Tennessee has gone under in four of its five games against conference opponents. The Chargers have gone under in 15 of their last 28 conference contests. I think this one is an under as well. SELECTION: Under 45.5

 

Houston Texans (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3), 1 p.m.

Jacksonville was undressed by the Cowboys last week and have now lost two straight and three of the last four. The defense has given up 70 points the last two weeks at Kansas City while the offense has pitifully scored just 21. Blake Bortles has had some issues while the run game has struggled without Leonard Fournette. This team has not played well this season outside of a couple of early games. Houston has won three straight since opening up the year with three losses. Deshaun Watson has played well for the most part outside of last week's head-scratching performance. The defense is playing a lot better as of late and this team will be looking for revenge after two beatdowns at the hands of the Jags last year. Jacksonville has covered just seven of its last 18 games at home. Some will point to Houston's performance last week as a worry for this week, but I also think the Texans had half of their mind on this one. Give me the live road dog in this one. SELECTION: Texans +5.5

 

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-2), 4:25 p.m.

Last week we had the Cowboys and they came through with flying colors. They were able to run it well enough that Dak Prescott could use the play-action game. This doesn't mean that all of a sudden Dallas is fixed and that the anemic offense is going to work. I'm actually more scared of the Cowboys' defense then their O and they may get Sean Lee back on Sunday. The Redskins are coming off a 23-17 win against Carolina in which Adrian Peterson ran hard and the defense made the stops when it needed to. Injuries are still a concern with this team, but AP ran hard with a separated shoulder. I still think Washington's offense could be so much better if Alex Smith gets on the same page with his receivers. Dallas swept the Skins last year in two easy victories. This is a feel play for me as I think the Redskins can slow down Ezekiel Elliott and can get just enough points on a Dallas team that is 0-3 on the road. SELECTION: Redskins -1.5

 

Los Angeles Rams (6-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5), 4:25 p.m.

Upon first glance, this seems to be an easy win for the road team, which has put up nearly 500 yards of offense per game. The 49ers have lost four straight and are starting C.J. Beathard under center. If you look closer though, there are some scenarios that say the home team is a live dog. This is the Rams' third straight road game after two really close wins over Seattle and Denver. They have a stretch of games coming up against Green Bay and New Orleans which are bigger tests in the scope of the NFC landscape. Los Angeles' defense can be beaten as evidenced by the solid rushing performance from the Seahawks while three others have put up at least 295 passing yards. Kyle Shanahan's bunch went toe-to-toe with the Packers on Monday night and have actually played several teams close this season. They lost by eight at Minnesota, by two at the Chargers and by three at Green Bay. The defensive numbers aren't the best, but the 49ers have done well against the run and have had some success against quarterbacks that aren't Aaron Rodgers. Last year the Rams won by two in San Francisco and lost by 21 at home. They have covered just 16 of their last 39 games. I could look really dumb when Los Angeles wins this one easily, but I think the Rams struggle with focus and pull out a close one. SELECTION: 49ers +10

 

— Written by Matt Josephs, who is a part of the Athlon Sports Contributor Network. Josephs prefers non-Power 5 college football and may be the only one wagering on the Sun Belt. Follow him on Twitter @MidMajorMatt.

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